RRosternomics
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Braves ATL

‹ ›

GM: Alex Anthopoulos

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.14× league · TAB +2.7
+2.7TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+13.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars15th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
31%dead money %14th/30
0.599win %5th/30
38.4roster fWAR12th/30
-21surplus $M (value vs cost)15th/30
$147Mpayroll $M12th/30

2019: made playoffs · 97–65. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFBilly Hamilton 114GRonald Acuña Jr. 100GEnder Inciarte 63G
LFAustin Riley 58GRonald Acuña Jr. 46GCharlie Culberson 35G
RFNick Markakis 103GRonald Acuña Jr. 35GMatt Joyce 33G
SSDansby Swanson 126GAdeiny Hechavarría 27GJohan Camargo 25G
2BOzzie Albies 158GAdeiny Hechavarría 29GJohan Camargo 4G
3BJosh Donaldson 148GJohan Camargo 18GAdeiny Hechavarría 9G
1BFreddie Freeman 158GCharlie Culberson 10GAustin Riley 6G
STARTERSMichael Soroka 3.8WARMax Fried 3.5WARJulio Teheran 1.4WARDallas Keuchel 0.7WARMike Foltynewicz 0.5WAR
CTyler Flowers 83GBrian McCann 83GFrancisco Cervelli 41G
DHMatt Joyce 6GFrancisco Cervelli 1GJohan Camargo 1G
BULLPEN★ Shane Greene 23svChris Martin 18hAnthony Swarzak 17hSean Newcomb 16hJerry Blevins 10hLuke Jackson 9hJosh Tomlin 7hMark Melancon 5h
CTyler Flowers 83 · Brian McCann 83 · Francisco Cervelli 41
1BFreddie Freeman 158 · Charlie Culberson 10 · Austin Riley 6
2BOzzie Albies 158 · Adeiny Hechavarría 29 · Johan Camargo 4
3BJosh Donaldson 148 · Johan Camargo 18 · Adeiny Hechavarría 9
SSDansby Swanson 126 · Adeiny Hechavarría 27 · Johan Camargo 25
LFAustin Riley 58 · Ronald Acuña Jr. 46 · Charlie Culberson 35
CFBilly Hamilton 114 · Ronald Acuña Jr. 100 · Ender Inciarte 63
RFNick Markakis 103 · Ronald Acuña Jr. 35 · Matt Joyce 33
DHMatt Joyce 6 · Francisco Cervelli 1 · Johan Camargo 1
SPMichael Soroka 3.8 · Max Fried 3.5 · Julio Teheran 1.4 · Dallas Keuchel 0.7 · Mike Foltynewicz 0.5
BP★ Shane Greene 23 · Chris Martin 18 · Anthony Swarzak 17 · Sean Newcomb 16 · Jerry Blevins 10 · Luke Jackson 9 · Josh Tomlin 7 · Mark Melancon 5

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Josh Donaldson 33 FA-elig 1555.2 23.0 -5.9
Ronald Acuña Jr. 21 pre-arb 1565.0 0.6 +15.9
Freddie Freeman 29 FA-elig 1584.4 21.0 -6.6
Ozzie Albies 22 pre-arb 1604.2 0.6 +13.2
Michael Soroka 21 pre-arb 293.8 0.5 +12.0
Max Fried 25 pre-arb 403.5 0.6 +10.8
Dansby Swanson 25 arb 1271.9 0.6 +5.7
Tyler Flowers 33 FA-elig 851.4 4.0 +0.6
Julio Teheran 28 FA-elig 351.4 11.2 -6.7
Matt Joyce 34 FA-elig 1291.3 1.2 +3.0
Luke Jackson 27 arb 711.3 0.6 +3.5
Adam Duvall 30 arb 411.0 2.9 +0.3
Ender Inciarte 28 arb 651.0 5.7 -2.6
Adeiny Hechavarría↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 241.0 0.1 +3.0
Kevin Gausman↔ CIN 28 FA-elig 160.9 4.8 -1.7
Brian McCann 35 FA-elig 850.9 2.0 +0.9
Dallas Keuchel 31 FA-elig 190.7 13.0 -10.6
Mark Melancon↔ SFG 34 FA-elig 230.7 5.0 -2.6
Nick Markakis 35 FA-elig 1160.6 4.0 -2.0
Chris Martin↔ TEX 33 arb 200.6 0.8 +1.1
Mike Foltynewicz 27 arb 210.5 5.5 -3.9
Francisco Cervelli↔ PIT 33 FA-elig 140.3 3.4 -2.4
Sean Newcomb 26 pre-arb 550.3 0.6 +0.4
Jacob Webb 25 – 360.2 0.3 +0.2
Shane Greene↔ DET 30 arb 270.2 1.7 -1.1
Darren O'Day 36 FA-elig 80.1 9.0 -8.6
Josh Tomlin 34 FA-elig 510.1 1.2 -0.9
Charlie Culberson 30 FA-elig 1080.1 1.4 -1.1
Jeremy Walker 24 – 60.1 0.1 +0.1
Billy Hamilton↔ KCR 28 FA-elig 260.1 0.9 -0.7
Austin Riley 22 – 800.0 0.4 -0.4
Jerry Blevins 35 FA-elig 45-0.0 1.2 -1.3
John Ryan Murphy↔ ARI 28 FA-elig 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Huascar Ynoa 21 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Anthony Swarzak↔ SEA 33 FA-elig 44-0.1 6.3 -6.5
Jesse Biddle↔ SEA 27 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Arodys Vizcaíno 28 FA-elig 4-0.1 4.8 -5.0
A.J. Minter 25 pre-arb 36-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Grant Dayton 31 arb 14-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Bryse Wilson 21 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.6 -1.1
Alex Jackson 23 – 4-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Rafael Ortega 28 pre-arb 34-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Touki Toussaint 23 pre-arb 24-0.3 0.3 -1.2
Kyle Wright 23 pre-arb 7-0.3 0.6 -1.5
Dan Winkler 29 arb 27-0.3 1.6 -2.6
Wes Parsons↔ COL 26 pre-arb 17-0.3 0.3 -1.3
Chad Sobotka 25 pre-arb 32-0.3 0.6 -1.7
Jonny Venters↔ WSN 34 FA-elig 9-0.4 1.7 -3.0
Shane Carle 27 pre-arb 6-0.4 0.6 -2.0
Johan Camargo 25 pre-arb 98-0.6 0.6 -2.5

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Josh Donaldson5.2
Matt Joyce1.3
Adeiny Hechavarría1.0
Brian McCann0.9
Dallas Keuchel0.7
Mark Melancon0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Aníbal Sánchez2.1
Kurt Suzuki1.0
Brad Brach0.3
Brandon McCarthy0.1
Danny Santana0.1
Miguel Socolovich0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$147.3M
2020 guaranteed
$0.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Josh Donaldson336.158$23.0MFREE AGENT
Freddie Freeman298.033$21.0MFREE AGENT
Dallas Keuchel316.089$13.0MFREE AGENT
Julio Teheran286.062$11.2MFREE AGENT
Darren O'Day3610.103$9.0MFREE AGENT
Anthony Swarzak337.024$6.3MFREE AGENT
Mark Melancon348.098$5.0MFREE AGENT
Nick Markakis3513.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Tyler Flowers337.148$4.0MFREE AGENT
Francisco Cervelli338.146$3.4MFREE AGENT
Brian McCann3513.117$2.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Joyce349.123$1.2MFREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin348.033$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins359.081$1.2MFREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton286.000$929kFREE AGENT
Ozzie Albies221.062$575k$370k$3.0M$5.0M$7.0M$7.0M$7.0M
Adeiny Hechavarría306.060$69kFREE AGENT
John Ryan Murphy286.000$35kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Ender Inciarte284.157$5.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Foltynewicz273.163$5.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman284.151$4.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Arodys Vizcaíno285.168$4.8MFREE AGENT
Adam Duvall303.096$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonny Venters345.159$1.7MFREE AGENT
Shane Greene304.075$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Winkler294.000$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Charlie Culberson303.084$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Chris Martin331.133$776kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Jackson272.019$585kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grant Dayton312.074$585kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dansby Swanson252.047$585kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Minter251.040$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Camargo251.137$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Newcomb261.114$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Carle271.032$575kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Fried250.148$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Sobotka250.043$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Wright230.030$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryse Wilson210.031$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronald Acuña Jr.211.000$560kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Soroka210.153$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Riley220.000$412kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Webb250.000$334kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wes Parsons260.005$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Biddle271.166$288kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Touki Toussaint230.031$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Ortega280.138$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Walker240.000$113kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Jackson230.000$42kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huascar Ynoa210.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'ATL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});