RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Mike Elias

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.55× league · TAB +15.8
+15.8TAB — talent above budget3rd/30
+26.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars13th/30
-2.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
47%dead money %21st/30
0.623win %2nd/30
42.9roster fWAR10th/30
+86surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$84Mpayroll $M25th/30

2023: made playoffs · 101–61. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCedric Mullins 110GAaron Hicks 44GRyan McKenna 25G
LFAustin Hays 137GAaron Hicks 30GRyan McKenna 15G
RFAnthony Santander 97GRyan McKenna 55GRyan O'Hearn 23G
SSJorge Mateo 110GGunnar Henderson 83GJoey Ortiz 3G
2BAdam Frazier 130GJordan Westburg 50GRamón Urías 22G
3BRamón Urías 92GGunnar Henderson 84GJordan Westburg 29G
1BRyan Mountcastle 90GRyan O'Hearn 70GRamón Urías 13G
STARTERSKyle Bradish 3.9WARKyle Gibson 2.7WARGrayson Rodriguez 1.9WARDean Kremer 1.6WARTyler Wells 0.7WAR
CAdley Rutschman 110GJames McCann 59GAnthony Bemboom 6G
DHAnthony Santander 47GAdley Rutschman 46GRyan Mountcastle 23G
BULLPEN★ Félix Bautista 33svYennier Cano 31hDanny Coulombe 22hJacob Webb 12hBryan Baker 11hCionel Pérez 11hJorge López 10hMike Baumann 6h
CAdley Rutschman 110 · James McCann 59 · Anthony Bemboom 6
1BRyan Mountcastle 90 · Ryan O'Hearn 70 · Ramón Urías 13
2BAdam Frazier 130 · Jordan Westburg 50 · Ramón Urías 22
3BRamón Urías 92 · Gunnar Henderson 84 · Jordan Westburg 29
SSJorge Mateo 110 · Gunnar Henderson 83 · Joey Ortiz 3
LFAustin Hays 137 · Aaron Hicks 30 · Ryan McKenna 15
CFCedric Mullins 110 · Aaron Hicks 44 · Ryan McKenna 25
RFAnthony Santander 97 · Ryan McKenna 55 · Ryan O'Hearn 23
DHAnthony Santander 47 · Adley Rutschman 46 · Ryan Mountcastle 23
SPKyle Bradish 3.9 · Kyle Gibson 2.7 · Grayson Rodriguez 1.9 · Dean Kremer 1.6 · Tyler Wells 0.7
BP★ Félix Bautista 33 · Yennier Cano 31 · Danny Coulombe 22 · Jacob Webb 12 · Bryan Baker 11 · Cionel Pérez 11 · Jorge López 10 · Mike Baumann 6

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Adley Rutschman 25 pre-arb 1545.5 0.7 +21.1
Gunnar Henderson 22 pre-arb 1504.7 0.7 +17.8
Kyle Bradish 26 pre-arb 303.9 0.7 +14.6
Félix Bautista 28 pre-arb 562.8 0.7 +10.4
Austin Hays 27 FA-elig 1442.7 3.2 +7.6
Kyle Gibson 35 FA-elig 332.7 10.0 +0.6
Anthony Santander 28 FA-elig 1532.5 7.4 +2.6
Grayson Rodriguez 23 – 231.9 0.5 +7.0
Cedric Mullins 28 arb 1161.9 4.1 +3.4
Yennier Cano 29 pre-arb 721.7 0.7 +6.2
Ryan Mountcastle 26 arb 1151.6 0.7 +5.6
Dean Kremer 27 arb 321.6 0.7 +5.6
Ryan O'Hearn 29 arb 1121.6 1.4 +4.8
Danny Coulombe 33 FA-elig 611.4 1.0 +4.6
Aaron Hicks↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 651.4 7.5 -2.0
Jordan Westburg 24 – 681.0 0.4 +3.7
Tyler Wells 28 pre-arb 250.7 0.7 +2.0
Ramón Urías 29 arb 1160.7 0.7 +1.9
Jorge Mateo 28 arb 1160.6 2.0 +0.5
Cole Irvin 29 arb 240.6 0.7 +1.5
Cionel Pérez 27 arb 650.4 0.7 +0.9
Keegan Akin 28 arb 240.4 0.7 +0.9
Bryan Baker 28 pre-arb 460.4 0.7 +0.9
DL Hall 24 pre-arb 180.4 0.1 +1.5
Adam Frazier 31 FA-elig 1410.4 8.0 -6.4
Jacob Webb↔ ANA 29 pre-arb 250.4 0.1 +1.4
Ryan McKenna 26 pre-arb 890.3 0.7 +0.6
James McCann 33 FA-elig 700.3 12.2 -11.1
John Means 30 arb 40.2 3.0 -2.3
Jack Flaherty↔ STL 27 FA-elig 90.2 1.7 -1.1
Shintaro Fujinami↔ OAK 29 pre-arb 300.1 1.5 -1.1
Heston Kjerstad 24 – 130.1 0.1 +0.3
Mike Baumann 27 pre-arb 600.1 0.7 -0.5
Eduard Bazardo↔ SEA 27 – 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Chris Vallimont 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Nick Vespi 27 pre-arb 90.0 0.1 -0.1
Mark Kolozsvary 27 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Reed Garrett↔ NYM 30 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Anthony Bemboom 33 arb 6-0.0 0.9 -0.9
Bruce Zimmermann 28 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Joey Krehbiel 30 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Joey Ortiz 24 – 15-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Mychal Givens 33 FA-elig 6-0.1 3.0 -3.5
Josh Lester 28 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Jorge López↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 12-0.2 0.7 -1.4
Logan Gillaspie 26 pre-arb 11-0.2 0.7 -1.6
Austin Voth 31 arb 25-0.2 1.9 -2.8
Terrin Vavra 26 pre-arb 27-0.3 0.7 -1.7
Colton Cowser 23 – 26-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Kyle Stowers 25 pre-arb 14-0.4 0.7 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Kyle Gibson2.7
Grayson Rodriguez1.9
Ryan O'Hearn1.6
Danny Coulombe1.4
Aaron Hicks1.4
Jordan Westburg1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Jordan Lyles1.5
Trey Mancini1.2
Rougned Odor0.3
Richie Martin Jr.0.2
Denyi Reyes0.2
Jake Reed0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$84.4M
2024 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
James McCann338.028$12.2MFREE AGENT
Kyle Gibson359.039$10.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Frazier316.075$8.0MFREE AGENT
Aaron Hicks339.041$7.5MFREE AGENT
Mychal Givens338.000$3.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Anthony Santander284.162$7.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedric Mullins283.078$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays273.057$3.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Means304.007$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge Mateo283.000$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Voth313.127$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty275.006$1.7MFREE AGENT
Ryan O'Hearn294.002$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe334.008$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López304.102$693kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Shintaro Fujinami290.000$1.5MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bemboom331.113$900kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Mountcastle262.105$738kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Irvin292.120$738kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ramón Urías292.025$735kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adley Rutschman251.000$734kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez272.085$732kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wells282.000$732kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Bautista281.000$732kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Kremer271.112$731kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Akin282.083$731kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Baker281.008$729kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Bradish260.160$728kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McKenna261.137$726kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gunnar Henderson220.036$723kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baumann270.081$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Stowers250.052$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terrin Vavra260.072$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Gillaspie260.047$721kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yennier Cano290.065$658kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grayson Rodriguez230.000$495kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Westburg240.000$375kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colton Cowser230.000$163kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DL Hall240.036$143kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vespi270.072$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Webb292.085$136kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Ortiz240.000$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Krehbiel301.019$89kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lester280.005$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Zimmermann281.105$77kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heston Kjerstad240.000$70kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduard Bazardo270.129$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reed Garrett300.106$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Vallimont26–$15k
Mark Kolozsvary272.047$4kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BAL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});