RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

‹ ›

GM: Mike Elias

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.74× league · TAB +14.2
+14.2TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+12.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-2.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
46%dead money %20th/30
0.562win %7th/30
44.8roster fWAR6th/30
+68surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$119Mpayroll $M20th/30

2024: made playoffs · 91–71. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCedric Mullins 140GColton Cowser 45GAustin Slater 10G
LFColton Cowser 109GAustin Slater 29GHeston Kjerstad 11G
RFAnthony Santander 130GAustin Slater 41GColton Cowser 20G
SSGunnar Henderson 157GJorge Mateo 6GJackson Holliday 3G
2BJackson Holliday 56GJorge Mateo 56GJordan Westburg 53G
3BEmmanuel Rivera 97GRamón Urías 93GJordan Westburg 67G
1BRyan Mountcastle 114GRyan O'Hearn 55GEmmanuel Rivera 21G
STARTERSCorbin Burnes 3.8WARGrayson Rodriguez 2.0WARAlbert Suárez 1.5WARKyle Bradish 1.4WARDean Kremer 1.4WAR
CAdley Rutschman 103GJames McCann 65G
DHEloy Jiménez 86GRyan O'Hearn 54GAdley Rutschman 45G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 23svYennier Cano 34hCionel Pérez 22hJacob Webb 14hGregory Soto 11hKeegan Akin 6hSeranthony Domínguez 6hBurch Smith 4h
CAdley Rutschman 103 · James McCann 65
1BRyan Mountcastle 114 · Ryan O'Hearn 55 · Emmanuel Rivera 21
2BJackson Holliday 56 · Jorge Mateo 56 · Jordan Westburg 53
3BEmmanuel Rivera 97 · Ramón Urías 93 · Jordan Westburg 67
SSGunnar Henderson 157 · Jorge Mateo 6 · Jackson Holliday 3
LFColton Cowser 109 · Austin Slater 29 · Heston Kjerstad 11
CFCedric Mullins 140 · Colton Cowser 45 · Austin Slater 10
RFAnthony Santander 130 · Austin Slater 41 · Colton Cowser 20
DHEloy Jiménez 86 · Ryan O'Hearn 54 · Adley Rutschman 45
SPCorbin Burnes 3.8 · Grayson Rodriguez 2.0 · Albert Suárez 1.5 · Kyle Bradish 1.4 · Dean Kremer 1.4
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 23 · Yennier Cano 34 · Cionel Pérez 22 · Jacob Webb 14 · Gregory Soto 11 · Keegan Akin 6 · Seranthony Domínguez 6 · Burch Smith 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Gunnar Henderson 23 pre-arb 1597.9 0.8 +32.1
Colton Cowser 24 pre-arb 1533.9 0.7 +15.7
Corbin Burnes 29 FA-elig 323.8 15.6 +0.3
Anthony Santander 29 FA-elig 1553.2 11.7 +1.7
Adley Rutschman 26 pre-arb 1482.7 0.8 +10.6
Jordan Westburg 25 pre-arb 1072.7 0.7 +10.3
Cedric Mullins 29 FA-elig 1472.1 6.3 +2.6
Grayson Rodriguez 24 pre-arb 202.0 0.7 +7.7
Ryan O'Hearn 30 FA-elig 1421.6 3.5 +3.0
Albert Suárez 34 FA-elig 321.5 0.7 +5.5
Ryan Mountcastle 27 arb 1241.4 4.1 +1.9
Dean Kremer 28 arb 241.4 0.8 +5.2
Keegan Akin 29 arb 661.4 0.8 +5.2
Kyle Bradish 27 pre-arb 81.4 0.8 +5.0
Zach Eflin↔ TBR 30 FA-elig 91.0 3.5 +0.4
Ramón Urías 30 arb 1000.9 2.1 +1.7
Jorge Mateo 29 arb 680.8 2.7 +0.5
Cionel Pérez 28 FA-elig 620.7 1.2 +1.8
Jacob Webb 30 arb 600.7 1.0 +1.8
Yennier Cano 30 pre-arb 700.6 0.8 +1.8
Cole Irvin↔ MIN 30 arb 250.6 1.7 +0.7
Danny Coulombe 34 FA-elig 330.5 2.3 -0.1
Cade Povich 24 pre-arb 160.5 0.7 +1.4
Emmanuel Rivera↔ MIA 28 arb 270.5 0.2 +1.9
John Means 31 FA-elig 40.5 3.3 -1.3
Austin Slater↔ CIN 31 FA-elig 330.3 1.6 -0.2
Heston Kjerstad 25 pre-arb 390.3 0.7 +0.6
Austin Hays↔ PHI 28 FA-elig 630.3 4.7 -3.5
Craig Kimbrel 36 FA-elig 570.2 12.0 -11.3
Dillon Tate↔ TOR 30 arb 290.2 1.3 -0.6
Tyler Wells 29 arb 30.2 2.0 -1.3
Livan Soto↔ CIN 24 pre-arb 120.2 0.7 -0.0
Kyle Stowers↔ MIA 26 pre-arb 190.2 0.2 +0.4
Bryan Baker 29 arb 190.2 0.7 -0.1
Vinny Nittoli↔ OAK 33 arb 20.1 0.2 +0.2
James McCann 34 FA-elig 660.1 12.2 -11.8
Gregory Soto↔ PHI 29 arb 230.1 1.7 -1.4
Colin Selby↔ KCR 26 pre-arb 30.1 0.4 -0.2
Nick Vespi 28 pre-arb 110.1 0.7 -0.5
Ryan McKenna↔ SFG 27 arb 90.1 0.6 -0.3
Cristian Pache↔ MIA 25 arb 30.0 0.0 +0.2
Burch Smith↔ MIA 34 arb 250.0 0.3 -0.1
Yohan Ramírez↔ BOS 29 – 50.0 0.0 +0.1
Matt Bowman↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 150.0 0.6 -0.4
Trevor Rogers↔ MIA 26 arb 40.0 0.2 -0.1
Tucker Davidson 28 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Thyago Vieira↔ ARI 30 FA-elig 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Mike Baumann↔ ANA 28 arb 17-0.0 0.2 -0.3
David Bañuelos 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Daniel Johnson 28 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Jackson Holliday 20 pre-arb 60-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Chayce McDermott 25 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Matt Krook 29 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Connor Norby↔ MIA 24 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Nick Maton 27 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Tony Kemp 32 FA-elig 5-0.1 1.0 -1.6
Jonathan Heasley 27 arb 4-0.2 0.7 -1.8
Seranthony Domínguez↔ PHI 29 FA-elig 25-0.3 1.7 -2.8
Eloy Jiménez↔ CHW 27 arb 33-0.5 4.7 -6.7
Coby Mayo 22 – 17-0.6 0.2 -2.5

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Corbin Burnes3.8
Albert Suárez1.5
Zach Eflin1.0
Cade Povich0.5
Emmanuel Rivera0.5
Austin Slater0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Kyle Gibson2.7
Aaron Hicks1.4
DL Hall0.4
Adam Frazier0.4
Jack Flaherty0.2
Shintaro Fujinami0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$118.8M
2025 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
James McCann349.028$12.2MFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel3614.000$12.0MFREE AGENT
Zach Eflin307.018$3.5MFREE AGENT
Tony Kemp328.000$1.0MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Corbin Burnes295.049$15.6MFREE AGENT
Anthony Santander295.162$11.7MFREE AGENT
Cedric Mullins294.078$6.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays284.057$4.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eloy Jiménez275.000$4.7MFREE AGENT
Ryan Mountcastle273.105$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan O'Hearn304.170$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Means315.007$3.3MFREE AGENT
Jorge Mateo294.000$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Coulombe345.008$2.3MFREE AGENT
Ramón Urías303.025$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregory Soto294.102$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Irvin303.083$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seranthony Domínguez295.131$1.7MFREE AGENT
Austin Slater315.147$1.6MFREE AGENT
Dillon Tate304.048$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez283.085$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Webb303.046$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keegan Akin293.083$825kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Heasley273.000$740kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Bowman334.043$555kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan McKenna273.000$554kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Burch Smith344.092$339kARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Rogers263.093$245kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinny Nittoli333.000$164kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yohan Ramírez293.001$38kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Tyler Wells292.132$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adley Rutschman262.000$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dean Kremer282.112$757kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gunnar Henderson231.036$756kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Bradish271.160$754kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yennier Cano301.065$752kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grayson Rodriguez240.129$748kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Westburg250.098$746kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colton Cowser240.043$743kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Vespi280.126$743kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cade Povich240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Holliday200.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Baker291.152$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albert Suárez341.025$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Krook290.045$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heston Kjerstad250.018$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Livan Soto240.042$683kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Selby261.000$444kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Baumann281.072$223kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Stowers260.077$204kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Coby Mayo220.000$171kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emmanuel Rivera282.026$167kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Connor Norby240.000$148kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Maton271.160$72kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thyago Vieira301.084$28kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Pache252.031$26kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bañuelos270.000$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Davidson282.039$4kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Johnson280.114$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chayce McDermott250.000$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BAL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});