RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

‹ ›

GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.56× league · TAB +14.6
+14.6TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+7.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-2.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
14%dead money %2nd/30
0.586win %5th/30
54.1roster fWAR2nd/30
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/30
$107Mpayroll $M3rd/30

2003: made playoffs · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJohnny Damon 144GDamian Jackson 13GGabe Kapler 10G
LFManny Ramirez 128GGabe Kapler 40GKevin Millar 19G
RFTrot Nixon 129GGabe Kapler 43GDamian Jackson 12G
SSNomar Garciaparra 156GDamian Jackson 18GFreddy Sanchez 6G
2BTodd Walker 139GDamian Jackson 38GLou Merloni 17G
3BBill Mueller 135GLou Merloni 32GFreddy Sanchez 7G
1BKevin Millar 101GDavid Ortiz 45GDave McCarty 8G
STARTERSPedro Martínez 7.4WARTim Wakefield 3.7WARJohn Burkett 2.6WARDerek Lowe 2.3WARByung-Hyun Kim 1.9WAR
CJason Varitek 137GDoug Mirabelli 55GBill Haselman 2G
DHDavid Ortiz 73GJeremy Giambi 28GManny Ramirez 26G
BULLPEN★ Scott Williamson 21svScott Sauerbeck 19hMike Timlin 17hAlan Embree 14hTodd Jones 4hBrandon Lyon 2hBruce Chen 1hJason Shiell 0h
CJason Varitek 137 · Doug Mirabelli 55 · Bill Haselman 2
1BKevin Millar 101 · David Ortiz 45 · Dave McCarty 8
2BTodd Walker 139 · Damian Jackson 38 · Lou Merloni 17
3BBill Mueller 135 · Lou Merloni 32 · Freddy Sanchez 7
SSNomar Garciaparra 156 · Damian Jackson 18 · Freddy Sanchez 6
LFManny Ramirez 128 · Gabe Kapler 40 · Kevin Millar 19
CFJohnny Damon 144 · Damian Jackson 13 · Gabe Kapler 10
RFTrot Nixon 129 · Gabe Kapler 43 · Damian Jackson 12
DHDavid Ortiz 73 · Jeremy Giambi 28 · Manny Ramirez 26
SPPedro Martínez 7.4 · Tim Wakefield 3.7 · John Burkett 2.6 · Derek Lowe 2.3 · Byung-Hyun Kim 1.9
BP★ Scott Williamson 21 · Scott Sauerbeck 19 · Mike Timlin 17 · Alan Embree 14 · Todd Jones 4 · Brandon Lyon 2 · Bruce Chen 1 · Jason Shiell 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Pedro Martínez 31 FA-elig 297.4 15.5 -2.4
Manny Ramirez 31 FA-elig 1545.8 20.0 -9.6
Nomar Garciaparra 29 FA-elig 1565.8 11.0 -0.7
Trot Nixon 29 FA-elig 1345.0 4.0 +4.9
Bill Mueller 32 FA-elig 1464.7 2.1 +6.2
Jason Varitek 31 FA-elig 1423.8 4.7 +2.0
Tim Wakefield 36 FA-elig 353.7 4.0 +2.5
David Ortiz 27 FA-elig 1283.2 1.2 +4.4
John Burkett 38 FA-elig 322.6 5.5 -0.8
Johnny Damon 29 FA-elig 1452.4 7.5 -3.2
Derek Lowe 30 FA-elig 332.3 3.6 +0.5
Byung-Hyun Kim↔ ARI 24 arb 491.9 2.8 +0.6
Casey Fossum 25 pre-arb 201.2 0.3 +1.9
Mike Timlin 37 FA-elig 721.0 1.9 -0.1
Todd Walker 30 FA-elig 1440.9 3.5 -1.8
Alan Embree 33 FA-elig 650.8 3.0 -1.6
Brandon Lyon 23 pre-arb 490.6 0.3 +0.8
Doug Mirabelli 32 FA-elig 620.6 0.8 +0.3
Dave McCarty↔ OAK 33 – 160.5 – –
Scott Williamson↔ CIN 27 arb 240.4 0.6 +0.2
Bronson Arroyo 26 – 60.4 – –
Todd Jones↔ COL 35 FA-elig 260.3 1.3 -0.7
Kevin Millar 31 arb 1480.3 2.0 -1.5
Shea Hillenbrand↔ ARI 27 pre-arb 490.2 0.1 +0.2
Lou Merloni↔ SDP 32 arb 150.2 0.1 +0.3
Gabe Kapler↔ COL 27 arb 680.1 2.2 -2.0
Robert Person 33 FA-elig 70.1 0.3 -0.1
Jeff Suppan↔ PIT 28 FA-elig 110.1 0.2 -0.0
Lou Collier 29 – 4-0.0 – –
Kevin Tolar 32 – 6-0.0 – –
Ramiro Mendoza 31 FA-elig 37-0.1 2.9 -3.0
Steve Woodard 28 – 7-0.1 – –
Bob Howry 29 arb 4-0.1 1.7 -1.8
Freddy Sanchez 25 – 20-0.1 – –
Hector Almonte↔ WSN 27 – 7-0.1 – –
Bill Haselman 37 – 4-0.1 – –
Adrian Brown 29 – 9-0.1 – –
Bruce Chen↔ HOU 26 arb 5-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Matt White↔ SEA 25 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Rudy Seanez 34 – 9-0.1 – –
Jeremy Giambi 28 arb 50-0.1 2.0 -2.2
Damian Jackson 29 FA-elig 109-0.2 0.6 -0.9
Ryan Rupe 28 – 5-0.2 – –
Chad Fox↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 17-0.2 0.2 -0.6
Scott Sauerbeck↔ PIT 31 arb 26-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Jason Shiell 26 – 17-0.3 – –
Andy Abad 30 – 9-0.3 – –

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Bill Mueller4.7
David Ortiz3.2
Byung-Hyun Kim1.9
Mike Timlin1.0
Todd Walker0.9
Brandon Lyon0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Frank Castillo1.7
Ugueth Urbina1.3
Cliff Floyd1.2
Rey Sanchez1.1
Rolando Arrojo0.8
Rickey Henderson0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$106.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Manny Ramirez3110.000$20.0M$22.5M$22.0M$18.3M$17.0M$12.4MFREE AGENT
Pedro Martínez3111.000$15.5M$17.5MFREE AGENT
Nomar Garciaparra297.000$11.0M$6.1MFREE AGENT
Johnny Damon298.000$7.5M$8.0M$8.2MFREE AGENT
John Burkett3816.000$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek316.000$4.7M$6.9M$8.0M$10.0M$11.0M$10.4M$5.0M
Tim Wakefield3611.000$4.0M$4.3M$4.7M$4.0M$4.0M$4.0M$4.0M
Trot Nixon297.000$4.0M$4.5M$7.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Derek Lowe306.000$3.6M$4.5MFREE AGENT
Todd Walker307.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Alan Embree3311.000$3.0M$3.0M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Ramiro Mendoza317.000$2.9M$3.6MFREE AGENT
Bill Mueller327.000$2.1M$2.1M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Timlin3712.000$1.9M$2.5M$2.8M$3.0M$2.8M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Todd Jones3510.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz276.000$1.2M$4.6M$5.2M$6.5M$13.2M$13.0M$13.0M
Doug Mirabelli327.000$805k$825k$1.5M$1.2M$750kFREE AGENT
Damian Jackson297.000$625kFREE AGENT
Robert Person338.000$300kFREE AGENT
Chad Fox326.000$224kFREE AGENT
Jeff Suppan288.000$172kFREE AGENT
Adrian Brown296.000—FREE AGENT
Lou Collier296.000—FREE AGENT
Bill Haselman3713.000—FREE AGENT
Dave McCarty3310.000—$500k$550kFREE AGENT
Rudy Seanez3414.000—FREE AGENT$1.6M
Steve Woodard286.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Byung-Hyun Kim244.000$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabe Kapler275.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar315.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Giambi285.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Bob Howry295.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Scott Williamson274.000$582kARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Sauerbeck314.000$516kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Chen265.000$219kFREE AGENT
Lou Merloni325.000$105kFREE AGENT
Ryan Rupe284.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Casey Fossum252.000$324kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Lyon232.000$310kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt White250.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shea Hillenbrand272.000$149kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Almonte27–—
Kevin Tolar32–—
Andy Abad302.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Sanchez251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Shiell26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});