RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

‹ ›

GM: Theo Epstein

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.92× league · TAB +3.3
+3.3TAB — talent above budget16th/30
+7.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-3.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
22%dead money %12th/30
0.605win %3rd/30
45.4roster fWAR3rd/30
-50surplus $M (value vs cost)28th/30
$128Mpayroll $M2nd/30

2004: World Series champions · 98–64. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJohnny Damon 148GDave Roberts 35GGabe Kapler 17G
LFManny Ramirez 132GDave Roberts 66GKevin Millar 20G
RFGabe Kapler 101GKevin Millar 55GTrot Nixon 40G
SSOrlando Cabrera 158GPokey Reese 71GCesar Crespo 27G
2BMark Bellhorn 124GRicky Gutierrez 32GPokey Reese 30G
3BBill Mueller 96GKevin Youkilis 65GMark Bellhorn 16G
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 124GKevin Millar 69GDave McCarty 67G
STARTERSCurt Schilling 6.5WARPedro Martínez 4.8WARBronson Arroyo 3.2WARDerek Lowe 2.3WARTim Wakefield 1.4WAR
CJason Varitek 130GDoug Mirabelli 53GSandy Martínez 4G
DHDavid Ortiz 114GManny Ramirez 18GEllis Burks 8G
BULLPEN★ Keith Foulke 32svMike Timlin 20hAlan Embree 20hMike Myers 10hCurt Leskanic 6hTerry Adams 3hScott Williamson 3hRamiro Mendoza 3h
CJason Varitek 130 · Doug Mirabelli 53 · Sandy Martínez 4
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 124 · Kevin Millar 69 · Dave McCarty 67
2BMark Bellhorn 124 · Ricky Gutierrez 32 · Pokey Reese 30
3BBill Mueller 96 · Kevin Youkilis 65 · Mark Bellhorn 16
SSOrlando Cabrera 158 · Pokey Reese 71 · Cesar Crespo 27
LFManny Ramirez 132 · Dave Roberts 66 · Kevin Millar 20
CFJohnny Damon 148 · Dave Roberts 35 · Gabe Kapler 17
RFGabe Kapler 101 · Kevin Millar 55 · Trot Nixon 40
DHDavid Ortiz 114 · Manny Ramirez 18 · Ellis Burks 8
SPCurt Schilling 6.5 · Pedro Martínez 4.8 · Bronson Arroyo 3.2 · Derek Lowe 2.3 · Tim Wakefield 1.4
BP★ Keith Foulke 32 · Mike Timlin 20 · Alan Embree 20 · Mike Myers 10 · Curt Leskanic 6 · Terry Adams 3 · Scott Williamson 3 · Ramiro Mendoza 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Curt Schilling 37 FA-elig 326.5 12.0 -0.8
Pedro Martínez 32 FA-elig 334.8 17.5 -9.2
Johnny Damon 30 FA-elig 1504.3 8.0 -0.5
David Ortiz 28 FA-elig 1504.2 4.6 +2.6
Jason Varitek 32 FA-elig 1374.1 6.9 +0.1
Mark Bellhorn 29 FA-elig 1383.4 0.5 +5.4
Manny Ramirez 32 FA-elig 1523.3 22.5 -16.9
Bronson Arroyo 27 arb 323.2 0.3 +5.2
Derek Lowe 31 FA-elig 332.3 4.5 -0.5
Keith Foulke 31 FA-elig 721.6 3.5 -0.7
Kevin Youkilis 25 – 721.5 – –
Kevin Millar 32 FA-elig 1501.5 3.3 -0.8
Tim Wakefield 37 FA-elig 321.4 4.3 -1.9
Bill Mueller 33 FA-elig 1101.1 2.1 -0.2
Trot Nixon 30 FA-elig 481.1 4.5 -2.7
Doug Mirabelli 33 FA-elig 590.9 0.8 +0.7
Orlando Cabrera↔ WSN 29 FA-elig 580.7 2.2 -0.9
Mike Timlin 38 FA-elig 760.7 2.5 -1.3
Scott Williamson 28 arb 280.4 3.2 -2.5
Alan Embree 34 FA-elig 710.4 3.0 -2.3
Nomar Garciaparra↔ CHC 30 FA-elig 380.4 5.4 -4.7
Dave Roberts↔ LAD 32 arb 450.2 0.4 -0.0
Pokey Reese 31 FA-elig 960.2 1.0 -0.7
Lenny DiNardo 24 pre-arb 220.2 0.3 +0.0
Adam Hyzdu 32 – 170.1 – –
Ramiro Mendoza 32 FA-elig 270.1 3.6 -3.4
Byung-Hyun Kim 25 arb 70.1 3.4 -3.3
Gabe Kapler 28 FA-elig 1360.0 0.8 -0.7
Jimmy Anderson↔ CHC 28 – 50.0 – –
Jamie Brown 27 – 40.0 – –
Frank Castillo 35 – 2-0.0 – –
Joe Nelson 29 – 3-0.0 – –
Mike Myers↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 25-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Earl Snyder 28 – 1-0.1 – –
Dave McCarty 34 FA-elig 91-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Sandy Martinez↔ CLE 33 – 3-0.1 – –
Brian Daubach 32 FA-elig 30-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Phil Seibel 25 – 2-0.1 – –
Pedro Astacio 35 – 5-0.1 – –
Curt Leskanic↔ KCR 36 FA-elig 32-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Terry Adams↔ TOR 31 FA-elig 19-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Mark Malaska 26 – 19-0.1 – –
Andy Dominique 28 – 7-0.2 – –
Ellis Burks 39 FA-elig 11-0.2 0.8 -1.1
Abe Alvarez 21 – 1-0.2 – –
Anastacio Martinez 25 – 11-0.2 – –
Bobby Jones 32 – 3-0.4 – –
Ricky Gutierrez↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 21-0.4 1.9 -2.6
Doug Mientkiewicz↔ MIN 30 FA-elig 49-0.6 1.1 -2.1
Cesar Crespo 25 arb 52-0.6 0.3 -1.4

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Curt Schilling6.5
Mark Bellhorn3.4
Keith Foulke1.6
Kevin Youkilis1.5
Orlando Cabrera0.7
Dave Roberts0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
John Burkett2.6
Casey Fossum1.2
Todd Walker0.9
Brandon Lyon0.6
Todd Jones0.3
Shea Hillenbrand0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$127.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Manny Ramirez3211.000$22.5M$22.0M$18.3M$17.0M$12.4MFREE AGENT
Pedro Martínez3212.000$17.5MFREE AGENT
Curt Schilling3716.000$12.0M$14.5M$13.0M$13.0MFREE AGENT
Johnny Damon309.000$8.0M$8.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Varitek327.000$6.9M$8.0M$10.0M$11.0M$10.4M$5.0M$3.0M
Nomar Garciaparra308.000$5.4MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz287.000$4.6M$5.2M$6.5M$13.2M$13.0M$13.0M$13.0M
Trot Nixon308.000$4.5M$7.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Derek Lowe317.000$4.5MFREE AGENT
Tim Wakefield3712.000$4.3M$4.7M$4.0M$4.0M$4.0M$4.0M$3.5M
Ramiro Mendoza328.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Keith Foulke317.000$3.5M$7.5M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Kevin Millar326.000$3.3M$3.5MFREE AGENT
Alan Embree3412.000$3.0M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Mike Timlin3813.000$2.5M$2.8M$3.0M$2.8M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Orlando Cabrera297.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Bill Mueller338.000$2.1M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Ricky Gutierrez3411.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Doug Mientkiewicz306.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Pokey Reese317.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Doug Mirabelli338.000$825k$1.5M$1.2M$750kFREE AGENT
Curt Leskanic3611.000$784kFREE AGENT
Gabe Kapler286.000$750kFREE AGENT
Ellis Burks3917.000$750kFREE AGENT
Terry Adams319.000$530kFREE AGENT
Brian Daubach326.000$500kFREE AGENT
Dave McCarty3411.000$500k$550kFREE AGENT
Mark Bellhorn297.000$490k$2.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Myers359.000$183k$600kFREE AGENT
Pedro Astacio3512.000—FREE AGENT
Frank Castillo3513.000—FREE AGENT
Bobby Jones327.000—FREE AGENT
Sandy Martinez339.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Byung-Hyun Kim255.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Scott Williamson285.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Dave Roberts325.000$388kFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo274.000$332kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cesar Crespo253.000$309kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Anderson285.000—FREE AGENT
Adam Hyzdu324.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Nelson293.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Lenny DiNardo240.000$300kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Dominique28–—
Jamie Brown27–—
Anastacio Martinez25–—
Earl Snyder28–—
Phil Seibel25–—
Kevin Youkilis250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Malaska26–—
Abe Alvarez21–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});