RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.59× league · TAB +10.1
+10.1TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+5.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)6th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
31%dead money %11th/30
0.574win %5th/30
49.9roster fWAR2nd/30
-38surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$200Mpayroll $M3rd/30

2016: made playoffs · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJackie Bradley Jr. 156GAndrew Benintendi 5GChris Young 3G
LFBrock Holt 64GChris Young 63GAndrew Benintendi 29G
RFMookie Betts 157GBrock Holt 5GChris Young 3G
SSXander Bogaerts 157GBrock Holt 7GDeven Marrero 4G
2BDustin Pedroia 152GAaron Hill 24GMarco Hernández 14G
3BTravis Shaw 105GAaron Hill 103GBrock Holt 17G
1BHanley Ramirez 133GTravis Shaw 50GDavid Ortiz 1G
STARTERSRick Porcello 5.1WARDavid Price 4.3WARSteven Wright 2.8WAREduardo Rodriguez 1.2WARDrew Pomeranz 0.5WAR
CSandy León 74GChristian Vázquez 56GBryan Holaday 40G
DHDavid Ortiz 140GHanley Ramirez 11GYoán Moncada 3G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 31svKoji Uehara 18hJunichi Tazawa 16hMatt Barnes 16hFernando Abad 8hBrad Ziegler 8hRobbie Ross Jr. 8hHeath Hembree 6h
CSandy León 74 · Christian Vázquez 56 · Bryan Holaday 40
1BHanley Ramirez 133 · Travis Shaw 50 · David Ortiz 1
2BDustin Pedroia 152 · Aaron Hill 24 · Marco Hernández 14
3BTravis Shaw 105 · Aaron Hill 103 · Brock Holt 17
SSXander Bogaerts 157 · Brock Holt 7 · Deven Marrero 4
LFBrock Holt 64 · Chris Young 63 · Andrew Benintendi 29
CFJackie Bradley Jr. 156 · Andrew Benintendi 5 · Chris Young 3
RFMookie Betts 157 · Brock Holt 5 · Chris Young 3
DHDavid Ortiz 140 · Hanley Ramirez 11 · Yoán Moncada 3
SPRick Porcello 5.1 · David Price 4.3 · Steven Wright 2.8 · Eduardo Rodriguez 1.2 · Drew Pomeranz 0.5
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 31 · Koji Uehara 18 · Junichi Tazawa 16 · Matt Barnes 16 · Fernando Abad 8 · Brad Ziegler 8 · Robbie Ross Jr. 8 · Heath Hembree 6

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Mookie Betts 23 pre-arb 1587.4 0.6 +23.5
Jackie Bradley Jr. 26 arb 1565.6 0.5 +17.5
Rick Porcello 27 FA-elig 335.1 20.1 -3.5
David Ortiz 40 FA-elig 1514.6 16.0 -1.2
David Price 30 FA-elig 354.3 30.0 -16.0
Dustin Pedroia 32 FA-elig 1543.9 13.0 -0.4
Xander Bogaerts 23 arb 1573.7 0.7 +11.2
Hanley Ramirez 32 FA-elig 1472.8 22.8 -13.5
Steven Wright 31 arb 252.8 0.5 +8.7
Sandy León 27 pre-arb 781.9 0.4 +5.9
Craig Kimbrel 28 FA-elig 571.2 11.2 -7.3
Eduardo Rodriguez 23 pre-arb 201.2 0.5 +3.3
Chris Young 32 FA-elig 761.0 6.5 -3.3
Brock Holt 28 arb 940.9 0.6 +2.5
Brad Ziegler↔ ARI 36 FA-elig 330.8 2.6 -0.1
Robbie Ross Jr. 27 arb 540.8 1.2 +1.2
Christian Vázquez 25 pre-arb 570.7 0.5 +1.7
Andrew Benintendi 21 – 340.6 0.2 +1.7
Koji Uehara 41 FA-elig 500.6 9.0 -7.1
Drew Pomeranz↔ SDP 27 arb 140.5 0.6 +1.2
Matt Barnes 26 pre-arb 620.5 0.5 +1.0
Clay Buchholz 31 FA-elig 370.5 13.0 -11.5
Travis Shaw 26 pre-arb 1450.5 0.5 +1.0
Joe Kelly 28 arb 200.4 2.6 -1.2
Blake Swihart 24 pre-arb 190.4 0.5 +0.8
Heath Hembree 27 pre-arb 380.4 0.4 +0.8
Josh Rutledge 27 arb 280.3 0.5 +0.5
Tommy Layne↔ NYY 31 arb 340.3 0.3 +0.5
Junichi Tazawa 30 FA-elig 530.2 3.4 -2.9
Sean O'Sullivan 28 pre-arb 50.1 0.3 +0.2
Robby Scott 26 – 70.1 0.1 +0.3
Carson Smith 26 pre-arb 30.0 0.5 -0.4
Rusney Castillo 28 pre-arb 9-0.0 11.3 -11.3
Mike Miller 26 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
William Cuevas 25 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Bryce Brentz 27 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Michael Martinez↔ CLE 33 – 4-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Marco Hernández 23 – 40-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Pat Light↔ MIN 25 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Yoán Moncada 21 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Fernando Abad↔ MIN 30 FA-elig 18-0.1 0.4 -0.9
Deven Marrero 25 pre-arb 13-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Ryan LaMarre 27 pre-arb 6-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Roenis Elías 27 pre-arb 3-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Pablo Sandoval 29 FA-elig 3-0.2 17.6 -18.3
Henry Owens 23 pre-arb 5-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Bryan Holaday↔ TEX 28 arb 14-0.3 0.2 -1.0
Noé Ramirez 26 pre-arb 14-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Aaron Hill↔ MIL 34 FA-elig 47-0.6 4.5 -6.6
Ryan Hanigan 35 FA-elig 35-1.1 3.7 -7.2

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
David Price4.3
Craig Kimbrel1.2
Chris Young1.0
Brad Ziegler0.8
Christian Vázquez0.7
Andrew Benintendi0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Wade Miley2.7
Rich Hill1.2
Alejandro De Aza1.0
Shane Victorino0.3
Anthony Varvaro0.1
Jemile Weeks0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$199.7M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
David Price306.164$30.0MFREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez3210.014$22.8MFREE AGENT
Rick Porcello276.170$20.1MFREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval297.047$17.6MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz4017.048$16.0MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia3214.041$13.0MFREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz317.059$13.0MFREE AGENT
Koji Uehara417.000$9.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Young329.039$6.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Hill3410.136$4.5MFREE AGENT
Ryan Hanigan357.077$3.7MFREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler367.122$2.6MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Craig Kimbrel285.066$11.2MFREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa305.086$3.4MFREE AGENT
Joe Kelly283.101$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Ross Jr.273.100$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz273.013$610kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.263.000$546kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Rutledge273.090$480kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Abad304.073$395kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Rusney Castillo280.115$11.3MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xander Bogaerts232.041$650kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Holt282.052$606kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mookie Betts231.070$566kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roenis Elías271.112$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Smith261.028$529kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Rodriguez230.130$521kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Swihart240.156$518kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Shaw260.088$515kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wright311.089$514kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez251.082$513kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Barnes260.110$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noé Ramirez260.044$509kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heath Hembree270.148$366kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sandy León272.028$350kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Layne311.144$304kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean O'Sullivan282.081$286kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Hernández230.000$286kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Benintendi210.000$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Holaday282.025$165kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryce Brentz270.012$133kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deven Marrero250.060$125kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Henry Owens230.062$103kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robby Scott260.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoán Moncada210.000$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan LaMarre270.046$53kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Light250.054$21kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
William Cuevas25–$17k
Mike Miller26–$14k
Michael Martinez332.134$10kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});