RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Dave Dombrowski

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.33× league · TAB +1.9
+1.9TAB — talent above budget12th/30
+7.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-4.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
31%dead money %9th/30
0.574win %5th/30
39.5roster fWAR9th/30
-40surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$173Mpayroll $M6th/30

2017: made playoffs · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJackie Bradley Jr. 132GRajai Davis 83GAndrew Benintendi 30G
LFAndrew Benintendi 123GChris Young 39GRajai Davis 25G
RFMookie Betts 153GChris Young 8GRajai Davis 7G
SSXander Bogaerts 146GEduardo Núñez 16GTzu-Wei Lin 6G
2BDustin Pedroia 98GBrock Holt 31GEduardo Núñez 26G
3BRafael Devers 56GEduardo Núñez 53GDeven Marrero 53G
1BMitch Moreland 138GSam Travis 21GHanley Ramirez 18G
STARTERSChris Sale 7.7WARDrew Pomeranz 2.9WARRick Porcello 2.0WAREduardo Rodriguez 1.9WARDavid Price 1.5WAR
CChristian Vázquez 95GSandy León 84GBlake Swihart 4G
DHHanley Ramirez 108GChris Young 25GMitch Moreland 9G
BULLPEN★ Craig Kimbrel 35svMatt Barnes 21hAddison Reed 15hHeath Hembree 14hJoe Kelly 13hRobby Scott 12hBrandon Workman 4hFernando Abad 2h
CChristian Vázquez 95 · Sandy León 84 · Blake Swihart 4
1BMitch Moreland 138 · Sam Travis 21 · Hanley Ramirez 18
2BDustin Pedroia 98 · Brock Holt 31 · Eduardo Núñez 26
3BRafael Devers 56 · Eduardo Núñez 53 · Deven Marrero 53
SSXander Bogaerts 146 · Eduardo Núñez 16 · Tzu-Wei Lin 6
LFAndrew Benintendi 123 · Chris Young 39 · Rajai Davis 25
CFJackie Bradley Jr. 132 · Rajai Davis 83 · Andrew Benintendi 30
RFMookie Betts 153 · Chris Young 8 · Rajai Davis 7
DHHanley Ramirez 108 · Chris Young 25 · Mitch Moreland 9
SPChris Sale 7.7 · Drew Pomeranz 2.9 · Rick Porcello 2.0 · Eduardo Rodriguez 1.9 · David Price 1.5
BP★ Craig Kimbrel 35 · Matt Barnes 21 · Addison Reed 15 · Heath Hembree 14 · Joe Kelly 13 · Robby Scott 12 · Brandon Workman 4 · Fernando Abad 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Chris Sale 28 FA-elig 327.7 12.0 +13.9
Mookie Betts 24 arb 1534.7 0.9 +14.7
Xander Bogaerts 24 arb 1483.3 4.5 +6.5
Craig Kimbrel 29 FA-elig 673.2 13.2 -2.4
Drew Pomeranz 28 FA-elig 322.9 4.5 +5.5
Christian Vázquez 26 arb 992.9 0.6 +9.1
Jackie Bradley Jr. 27 arb 1332.4 3.6 +4.5
Rick Porcello 28 FA-elig 332.0 20.1 -13.5
Andrew Benintendi 22 pre-arb 1511.9 0.5 +5.9
Eduardo Rodriguez 24 pre-arb 251.9 0.6 +5.8
David Price 31 FA-elig 161.5 30.0 -24.9
Doug Fister 33 FA-elig 181.3 1.8 +2.7
Dustin Pedroia 33 FA-elig 1051.2 15.0 -10.8
Eduardo Núñez↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 381.0 1.4 +2.1
Matt Barnes 27 arb 701.0 0.6 +2.7
Mitch Moreland 31 FA-elig 1490.9 5.5 -2.4
Joe Kelly 29 arb 540.7 2.8 -0.5
Rafael Devers 20 – 580.6 0.2 +1.9
Heath Hembree 28 arb 620.5 0.5 +1.2
Sandy León 28 arb 850.5 1.3 +0.4
Blaine Boyer 35 FA-elig 320.4 0.4 +0.9
Austin Maddox 26 – 130.3 0.2 +0.9
Fernando Abad 31 FA-elig 480.3 2.0 -0.9
Brian Johnson 26 pre-arb 50.2 0.1 +0.5
Carson Smith 27 arb 80.2 0.6 +0.0
Hector Velázquez 28 – 80.1 0.1 +0.3
Tzu-Wei Lin 23 – 250.1 0.2 +0.1
Robbie Ross Jr. 28 arb 80.1 1.8 -1.6
Chase d'Arnaud↔ ATL 30 FA-elig 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Kyle Kendrick 32 FA-elig 20.0 1.0 -0.8
Blake Swihart 25 pre-arb 60.0 0.1 -0.0
Addison Reed↔ NYM 28 FA-elig 290.0 2.9 -2.9
Roenis Elías 28 arb 1-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Brandon Workman 28 arb 33-0.0 0.6 -0.7
Kyle Martin 26 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Ben Taylor 24 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Steve Selsky 27 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Noé Ramirez↔ ANA 27 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Marco Hernández 24 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Rajai Davis↔ OAK 36 FA-elig 17-0.1 0.9 -1.3
Sam Travis 23 – 33-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Chris Young 33 FA-elig 90-0.3 6.5 -7.5
Hanley Ramirez 33 FA-elig 133-0.3 22.8 -23.7
Deven Marrero 26 pre-arb 71-0.4 0.3 -1.6
Josh Rutledge 28 arb 37-0.4 0.6 -1.9
Robby Scott 27 pre-arb 57-0.4 0.5 -1.9
Steven Wright 32 arb 5-0.5 0.6 -2.4
Brock Holt 29 arb 64-0.6 1.9 -3.9
Pablo Sandoval↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 32-0.6 7.1 -9.3

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Chris Sale7.7
Doug Fister1.3
Eduardo Núñez1.0
Mitch Moreland0.9
Rafael Devers0.6
Blaine Boyer0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
David Ortiz4.6
Brad Ziegler0.8
Koji Uehara0.6
Clay Buchholz0.5
Travis Shaw0.5
Tommy Layne0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$173.3M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
David Price317.164$30.0MFREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez3311.014$22.8MFREE AGENT
Rick Porcello287.170$20.1MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia3314.041$15.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Kimbrel296.066$13.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Sale286.061$12.0MFREE AGENT
Pablo Sandoval308.047$7.1MFREE AGENT
Chris Young3310.162$6.5MFREE AGENT
Mitch Moreland316.067$5.5MFREE AGENT
Doug Fister337.058$1.8MFREE AGENT
Kyle Kendrick327.159$1.0MFREE AGENT
Rajai Davis369.167$872kFREE AGENT
Blaine Boyer358.070$371kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Xander Bogaerts243.041$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz284.013$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.274.000$3.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Reed285.001$2.9MFREE AGENT
Joe Kelly294.029$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Abad315.073$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brock Holt293.052$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robbie Ross Jr.284.100$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Núñez305.090$1.4MFREE AGENT
Brandon Workman283.018$635kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Rutledge283.090$600kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Sandy León282.149$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mookie Betts242.070$950kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wright322.089$594kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eduardo Rodriguez241.130$584kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roenis Elías281.119$582kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Barnes271.110$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez262.031$561kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Smith272.028$557kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Benintendi220.062$549kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Heath Hembree281.106$547kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robby Scott270.031$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Hernández240.105$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Selsky270.043$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Taylor240.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deven Marrero260.106$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Travis230.000$219kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Devers200.000$205kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Maddox260.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tzu-Wei Lin230.000$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hector Velázquez280.000$140kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Swihart251.133$91kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Johnson260.012$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase d'Arnaud302.045$34kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Noé Ramirez270.102$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Martin26–$15k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'BOS',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});