RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

‹ ›

GM: Jim Hendry

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.25× league · TAB +1.9
+1.9TAB — talent above budget15th/30
+0.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-3.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
27%dead money %15th/30
0.525win %12th/30
38.8roster fWAR11th/30
-27surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$103Mpayroll $M8th/30

2007: made playoffs · 85–77. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJacque Jones 84GFelix Pie 80GÁngel Pagán 34G
LFAlfonso Soriano 122GCraig Monroe 102GMatt Murton 28G
RFJacque Jones 67GCliff Floyd 63GMatt Murton 41G
SSRyan Theriot 108GRonny Cedeno 15GMike Fontenot 3G
2BMark DeRosa 93GMike Fontenot 62GRyan Theriot 37G
3BAramis Ramirez 126GMark DeRosa 37GRyan Theriot 8G
1BDerrek Lee 147GDaryle Ward 16GMark DeRosa 9G
STARTERSTed Lilly 3.5WARCarlos Zambrano 3.3WARRich Hill 2.9WARJason Marquis 1.3WARSean Marshall 1.0WAR
CJason Kendall 132GKoyie Hill 31GGeovany Soto 16G
DHAramis Ramirez 3GCliff Floyd 2GJacque Jones 1G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Dempster 28svBob Howry 22hCarlos Marmol 17hWill Ohman 12hMichael Wuertz 7hScott Eyre 5hNeal Cotts 2hKerry Wood 0h
CJason Kendall 132 · Koyie Hill 31 · Geovany Soto 16
1BDerrek Lee 147 · Daryle Ward 16 · Mark DeRosa 9
2BMark DeRosa 93 · Mike Fontenot 62 · Ryan Theriot 37
3BAramis Ramirez 126 · Mark DeRosa 37 · Ryan Theriot 8
SSRyan Theriot 108 · Ronny Cedeno 15 · Mike Fontenot 3
LFAlfonso Soriano 122 · Craig Monroe 102 · Matt Murton 28
CFJacque Jones 84 · Felix Pie 80 · Ángel Pagán 34
RFJacque Jones 67 · Cliff Floyd 63 · Matt Murton 41
DHAramis Ramirez 3 · Cliff Floyd 2 · Jacque Jones 1
SPTed Lilly 3.5 · Carlos Zambrano 3.3 · Rich Hill 2.9 · Jason Marquis 1.3 · Sean Marshall 1.0
BP★ Ryan Dempster 28 · Bob Howry 22 · Carlos Marmol 17 · Will Ohman 12 · Michael Wuertz 7 · Scott Eyre 5 · Neal Cotts 2 · Kerry Wood 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Alfonso Soriano 31 FA-elig 1356.7 10.0 +4.3
Aramis Ramirez 29 FA-elig 1324.8 9.0 +1.2
Ted Lilly 31 FA-elig 343.5 6.0 +1.6
Carlos Zambrano 26 FA-elig 373.3 12.4 -5.2
Derrek Lee 31 FA-elig 1503.3 13.2 -6.2
Rich Hill 27 pre-arb 322.9 0.4 +5.8
Mark DeRosa 32 FA-elig 1492.5 2.8 +2.6
Bob Howry 33 FA-elig 781.7 4.5 -0.9
Carlos Marmol 24 – 591.6 – –
Jason Marquis 28 FA-elig 401.3 4.8 -1.9
Sean Marshall 24 – 211.0 – –
Ryan Theriot 27 pre-arb 1480.9 0.4 +1.6
Geovany Soto 24 – 180.9 0.4 +1.6
Daryle Ward 32 FA-elig 790.9 1.0 +0.9
Jacque Jones 32 FA-elig 1350.8 5.6 -3.9
Matt Murton 25 pre-arb 940.8 0.4 +1.2
Cliff Floyd 34 FA-elig 1080.7 3.0 -1.4
Michael Wuertz 28 arb 730.6 0.4 +1.0
Mike Fontenot 27 – 860.6 – –
Will Ohman 29 FA-elig 560.5 0.9 +0.2
Angel Guzman 25 pre-arb 120.5 0.4 +0.6
Ángel Pagán 25 – 710.5 – –
Felix Pie 22 – 870.4 – –
Kerry Wood 30 FA-elig 220.4 1.8 -1.0
Michael Barrett↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 570.3 2.6 -2.0
Kevin Hart 24 – 80.2 – –
Ryan Dempster 30 FA-elig 660.2 5.3 -4.9
Rocky Cherry↔ BAL 27 – 120.2 – –
Scott Eyre 35 FA-elig 550.2 3.8 -3.5
Ronny Cedeno 24 pre-arb 380.1 0.4 -0.1
Steve Trachsel↔ BAL 36 FA-elig 40.1 0.4 -0.3
Neal Cotts 27 arb 160.0 0.8 -0.7
Clay Rapada↔ DET 26 – 10.0 – –
Eric Patterson 24 – 7-0.0 – –
Sam Fuld 25 – 14-0.0 – –
Carmen Pignatiello 24 – 4-0.0 – –
Jason Kendall↔ OAK 33 FA-elig 57-0.1 5.4 -5.6
Scott Moore↔ BAL 23 – 2-0.1 – –
Jake Fox 24 – 7-0.2 – –
Billy Petrick 23 – 8-0.2 – –
Craig Monroe↔ DET 30 FA-elig 23-0.3 0.9 -1.5
Wade Miller 30 FA-elig 3-0.3 1.5 -2.1
Sean Gallagher 21 – 8-0.3 – –
Cesar Izturis↔ PIT 27 FA-elig 65-0.3 2.5 -3.1
Rob Bowen↔ OAK 26 arb 10-0.4 0.1 -1.0
Koyie Hill 28 – 36-0.5 0.4 -1.4
Henry Blanco 35 FA-elig 22-0.6 1.8 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Alfonso Soriano6.7
Ted Lilly3.5
Mark DeRosa2.5
Jason Marquis1.3
Daryle Ward0.9
Cliff Floyd0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Juan Pierre3.1
Greg Maddux2.7
Phil Nevin0.7
Scott Williamson0.3
Tony Womack0.3
Juan Mateo0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$103.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Derrek Lee3110.000$13.2M$13.2M$13.2M$9.8MFREE AGENT
Carlos Zambrano266.000$12.4M$16.0M$18.8M$18.9M$18.9MFREE AGENT
Alfonso Soriano318.000$10.0M$14.0M$17.0M$19.0M$19.0M$18.0M$11.1M
Aramis Ramirez299.000$9.0M$15.0M$16.6M$16.8M$14.6MFREE AGENT
Ted Lilly318.000$6.0M$8.0M$13.0M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Jacque Jones328.000$5.6MFREE AGENT
Jason Kendall3311.000$5.4MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster309.000$5.3M$7.3M$9.0M$13.5M$13.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis287.000$4.8M$6.4MFREE AGENT
Bob Howry339.000$4.5M$4.5MFREE AGENT$1.3M
Scott Eyre3510.000$3.8M$1.9MFREE AGENT
Cliff Floyd3414.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Mark DeRosa329.000$2.8M$4.8MFREE AGENT
Michael Barrett309.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Cesar Izturis276.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Henry Blanco3510.000$1.8M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Kerry Wood309.000$1.8M$4.2MFREE AGENT$1.5M$3.0M
Wade Miller308.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Daryle Ward329.000$1.0M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Craig Monroe306.000$900kFREE AGENT
Will Ohman297.000$900kFREE AGENT
Steve Trachsel3614.000$414kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Neal Cotts274.000$825kARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Wuertz283.000$415kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Koyie Hill284.000$380kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Bowen264.000$63kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (21)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Matt Murton252.000$415kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Cedeno242.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Hill272.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Theriot272.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Guzman251.000$384kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geovany Soto242.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Pie220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fontenot272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ángel Pagán251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Fox240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Marshall241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Moore231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Rapada260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carmen Pignatiello240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gallagher210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Patterson240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sam Fuld250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Hart240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rocky Cherry270.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Petrick23–—
Carlos Marmol241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CHC',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});