RRosternomics
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Cubs CHC

‹ ›

GM: Jim Hendry

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.47× league · TAB +11.9
+11.9TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+10.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
12.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-1.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
14%dead money %2nd/30
0.602win %2nd/30
50.4roster fWAR2nd/30
-18surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$129Mpayroll $M4th/30

2008: made playoffs · 97–64. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJim Edmonds 103GReed Johnson 78GFelix Pie 39G
LFAlfonso Soriano 108GMark DeRosa 27GReed Johnson 26G
RFKosuke Fukudome 137GMark DeRosa 38GReed Johnson 6G
SSRyan Theriot 149GRonny Cedeno 27GMark DeRosa 1G
2BMark DeRosa 95GMike Fontenot 82GRonny Cedeno 43G
3BAramis Ramirez 147GMark DeRosa 22GRonny Cedeno 7G
1BDerrek Lee 153GDaryle Ward 13GMicah Hoffpauir 6G
STARTERSRyan Dempster 4.8WARCarlos Zambrano 4.3WARTed Lilly 3.0WARJason Marquis 2.2WARRich Harden 1.9WAR
CGeovany Soto 136GHenry Blanco 45GKoyie Hill 9G
DHGeovany Soto 3GDerrek Lee 2GMicah Hoffpauir 1G
BULLPEN★ Kerry Wood 34svCarlos Marmol 30hBob Howry 15hNeal Cotts 9hMichael Wuertz 3hJon Lieber 3hJeff Samardzija 3hKevin Hart 1h
CGeovany Soto 136 · Henry Blanco 45 · Koyie Hill 9
1BDerrek Lee 153 · Daryle Ward 13 · Micah Hoffpauir 6
2BMark DeRosa 95 · Mike Fontenot 82 · Ronny Cedeno 43
3BAramis Ramirez 147 · Mark DeRosa 22 · Ronny Cedeno 7
SSRyan Theriot 149 · Ronny Cedeno 27 · Mark DeRosa 1
LFAlfonso Soriano 108 · Mark DeRosa 27 · Reed Johnson 26
CFJim Edmonds 103 · Reed Johnson 78 · Felix Pie 39
RFKosuke Fukudome 137 · Mark DeRosa 38 · Reed Johnson 6
DHGeovany Soto 3 · Derrek Lee 2 · Micah Hoffpauir 1
SPRyan Dempster 4.8 · Carlos Zambrano 4.3 · Ted Lilly 3.0 · Jason Marquis 2.2 · Rich Harden 1.9
BP★ Kerry Wood 34 · Carlos Marmol 30 · Bob Howry 15 · Neal Cotts 9 · Michael Wuertz 3 · Jon Lieber 3 · Jeff Samardzija 3 · Kevin Hart 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Ryan Dempster 31 FA-elig 334.8 7.3 +3.6
Aramis Ramirez 30 FA-elig 1494.5 15.0 -4.7
Carlos Zambrano 27 FA-elig 384.3 16.0 -6.1
Mark DeRosa 33 FA-elig 1494.2 4.8 +4.7
Alfonso Soriano 32 FA-elig 1093.8 14.0 -5.3
Mike Fontenot 28 arb 1193.1 0.4 +6.7
Ryan Theriot 28 arb 1493.0 0.4 +6.4
Ted Lilly 32 FA-elig 343.0 8.0 -1.3
Geovany Soto 25 arb 1412.8 0.4 +5.9
Derrek Lee 32 FA-elig 1552.4 13.2 -7.7
Jason Marquis 29 FA-elig 392.2 6.4 -1.3
Kerry Wood 31 FA-elig 652.1 4.2 +0.7
Rich Harden↔ OAK 26 arb 121.9 2.3 +2.1
Jim Edmonds↔ SDP 38 FA-elig 851.5 6.1 -2.7
Reed Johnson 31 arb 1091.4 1.3 +2.0
Carlos Marmol 25 pre-arb 821.4 0.4 +2.8
Kosuke Fukudome 31 pre-arb 1501.4 7.0 -3.8
Sean Marshall 25 – 340.9 – –
Sean Gallagher↔ OAK 22 – 120.7 – –
Henry Blanco 36 FA-elig 580.6 3.2 -1.8
Jeff Samardzija 23 pre-arb 260.5 2.0 -0.9
Micah Hoffpauir 28 – 330.4 – –
Bob Howry 34 FA-elig 720.2 4.5 -4.0
Scott Eyre↔ PHI 36 FA-elig 190.2 1.9 -1.4
Angel Guzman 26 pre-arb 60.1 0.4 -0.1
Michael Wuertz 29 arb 450.1 0.9 -0.5
Eric Patterson↔ OAK 25 – 130.1 – –
Neal Cotts 28 – 500.1 0.8 -0.6
Ronny Cedeno 25 arb 990.0 0.4 -0.3
Randy Wells↔ TOR 25 – 30.0 – –
Matt Murton↔ OAK 26 – 190.0 – –
Chad Gaudin↔ OAK 25 arb 24-0.0 0.9 -0.9
Rich Hill 28 arb 5-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Kevin Hart 25 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Carmen Pignatiello 25 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Casey McGehee 25 – 9-0.1 – –
Jose Ascanio 23 – 6-0.1 – –
Jon Lieber 38 FA-elig 26-0.1 3.5 -3.8
Felix Pie 23 pre-arb 43-0.2 0.4 -0.8
Daryle Ward 33 FA-elig 89-0.2 1.2 -1.7
Chad Fox 37 – 3-0.2 – –
Koyie Hill 29 – 10-0.5 0.5 -1.6

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Rich Harden1.9
Jim Edmonds1.5
Reed Johnson1.4
Kosuke Fukudome1.4
Jeff Samardzija0.5
Micah Hoffpauir0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Jacque Jones0.8
Cliff Floyd0.7
Will Ohman0.5
Ángel Pagán0.5
Michael Barrett0.3
Rocky Cherry0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$129.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Carlos Zambrano277.000$16.0M$18.8M$18.9M$18.9MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez3010.000$15.0M$16.6M$16.8M$14.6MFREE AGENT
Alfonso Soriano329.000$14.0M$17.0M$19.0M$19.0M$18.0M$11.1MFREE AGENT
Derrek Lee3211.000$13.2M$13.2M$9.8MFREE AGENT
Ted Lilly329.000$8.0M$13.0M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster3110.000$7.3M$9.0M$13.5M$13.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Marquis298.000$6.4MFREE AGENT
Jim Edmonds3815.000$6.1MFREE AGENT
Mark DeRosa3310.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Bob Howry3410.000$4.5MFREE AGENT$1.3M
Kerry Wood3110.000$4.2MFREE AGENT$1.5M$3.0M
Jon Lieber3814.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Henry Blanco3611.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Scott Eyre3611.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Daryle Ward3310.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Chad Fox3711.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Rich Harden265.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Reed Johnson315.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Michael Wuertz294.000$860kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin255.000$852kFREE AGENT
Neal Cotts285.000$800kFREE AGENT
Koyie Hill295.000$475kFREE AGENT
Rich Hill283.000$445kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Theriot283.000$428kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronny Cedeno253.000$407kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Fontenot283.000$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geovany Soto253.000$401kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Murton263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Kosuke Fukudome310.000$7.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Samardzija230.000$2.0MPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Marmol252.000$430kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Pie231.000$402kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Guzman262.000$401kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Hart251.000$392kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carmen Pignatiello251.000$392kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey McGehee250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Marshall252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Wells250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Ascanio231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gallagher221.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micah Hoffpauir280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Patterson251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cubs 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CHC',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});