RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

GM: John Hart

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.18× league · TAB +17.7
+17.7TAB — talent above budget2nd/28
+25.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/28
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/28
-2.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/28
14%dead money %5th/28
0.694win %1st/28
47.9roster fWAR2nd/28
+7surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/28
$39Mpayroll $M7th/28

1995: won pennant · 100–44. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFKenny Lofton 114GWayne Kirby 34GRuben Amaro Jr. 14G
LFAlbert Belle 142GRuben Amaro Jr. 5GJeromy Burnitz 5G
RFManny Ramirez 131GWayne Kirby 35GRuben Amaro Jr. 6G
SSOmar Vizquel 136GAlvaro Espinoza 19G
2BCarlos Baerga 134GAlvaro Espinoza 22GBilly Ripken 7G
3BJim Thome 134GAlvaro Espinoza 22GHerbert Perry Jr. 1G
1BPaul Sorrento 91GHerbert Perry Jr. 45GEddie Murray 18G
STARTERSDennis Martinez 3.3WARCharles Nagy 3.2WAROrel Hershiser 2.5WARMark Clark 1.8WARChad Ogea 1.5WAR
CTony Peña Sr. 91GSandy Alomar Jr. 61GScooter Tucker 20G
DHEddie Murray 94GDave Winfield 32GManny Ramirez 5G
BULLPEN★ Jose Mesa 46svJulian Tavarez 0hEric Plunk 0hPaul Assenmacher 0hJim Poole 0hAlan Embree 0hJason Grimsley 0hPaul Shuey 0h
CTony Peña Sr. 91 · Sandy Alomar Jr. 61 · Scooter Tucker 20
1BPaul Sorrento 91 · Herbert Perry Jr. 45 · Eddie Murray 18
2BCarlos Baerga 134 · Alvaro Espinoza 22 · Billy Ripken 7
3BJim Thome 134 · Alvaro Espinoza 22 · Herbert Perry Jr. 1
SSOmar Vizquel 136 · Alvaro Espinoza 19
LFAlbert Belle 142 · Ruben Amaro Jr. 5 · Jeromy Burnitz 5
CFKenny Lofton 114 · Wayne Kirby 34 · Ruben Amaro Jr. 14
RFManny Ramirez 131 · Wayne Kirby 35 · Ruben Amaro Jr. 6
DHEddie Murray 94 · Dave Winfield 32 · Manny Ramirez 5
SPDennis Martinez 3.3 · Charles Nagy 3.2 · Orel Hershiser 2.5 · Mark Clark 1.8 · Chad Ogea 1.5
BP★ Jose Mesa 46 · Julian Tavarez 0 · Eric Plunk 0 · Paul Assenmacher 0 · Jim Poole 0 · Alan Embree 0 · Jason Grimsley 0 · Paul Shuey 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1995 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Albert Belle 28 FA-elig 1437.2 4.5 +2.4
Jim Thome 24 arb 1376.0 0.8 +4.9
Kenny Lofton 28 arb 1183.8 1.9 +1.7
Dennis Martinez 41 FA-elig 283.3 4.5 -1.4
Manny Ramirez 23 pre-arb 1373.2 0.1 +2.9
Charles Nagy 28 arb 293.2 1.9 +1.2
Eddie Murray 39 FA-elig 1132.6 3.0 -0.5
Orel Hershiser 36 FA-elig 262.5 1.5 +0.9
Jose Mesa 29 FA-elig 622.1 1.4 +0.6
Carlos Baerga 26 arb 1352.0 3.6 -1.7
Mark Clark 27 arb 221.8 0.8 +0.9
Julian Tavarez 22 pre-arb 571.6 0.1 +1.5
Chad Ogea 24 pre-arb 201.5 0.1 +1.3
Omar Vizquel 28 FA-elig 1361.4 2.9 -1.6
Ken Hill↔ STL 29 FA-elig 121.4 1.8 -0.5
Sandy Alomar Jr. 29 FA-elig 661.3 2.5 -1.3
Eric Plunk 31 FA-elig 561.1 0.7 +0.4
Herbert Perry Jr. 25 pre-arb 520.9 0.1 +0.8
Paul Assenmacher 34 FA-elig 470.8 1.3 -0.5
Bud Black 38 FA-elig 110.5 0.3 +0.1
Paul Sorrento 29 FA-elig 1040.4 1.1 -0.8
Jim Poole 29 arb 420.3 0.3 -0.1
Alan Embree 25 arb 230.2 0.1 +0.1
Jeromy Burnitz 26 pre-arb 90.2 0.2 +0.0
Albie Lopez 23 pre-arb 60.2 0.1 +0.1
Brian Giles 24 pre-arb 60.2 0.1 +0.1
Tony Peña Sr. 38 FA-elig 910.2 0.5 -0.3
Billy Ripken 30 – 80.2 – –
John Farrell 32 – 10.2 – –
Jesse Levis 27 arb 120.1 0.1 -0.0
David Bell↔ STL 22 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.0
Paul Shuey 24 pre-arb 70.1 0.1 -0.1
Joe Roa 23 – 1-0.0 – –
Wayne Kirby 31 arb 101-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Gregg Olson↔ KCR 28 FA-elig 3-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Scooter Tucker↔ HOU 28 arb 17-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Dennis Cook↔ TEX 32 FA-elig 11-0.2 0.1 -0.3
Alvaro Espinoza 33 FA-elig 66-0.3 0.5 -0.8
Jason Grimsley 27 FA-elig 15-0.4 0.3 -0.7
Ruben Amaro Jr. 30 arb 28-0.5 0.2 -0.7
Dave Winfield 43 FA-elig 46-0.8 0.6 -1.4

Key additions (new vs 1994)

PlayerfWAR
Orel Hershiser2.5
Ken Hill1.4
Paul Assenmacher0.8
Bud Black0.5
Jim Poole0.3
Alan Embree0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1994)

Player1994 fWAR
Jack Morris2.0
Rene Gonzales0.4
Jeff Russell0.1
Matt Turner0.1
Bill Wertz0.0
Candy Maldonado0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

1995 payroll
$39.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 1995, 1995–2001. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (20)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Dennis Martinez4119.000$4.5M$3.8MFREE AGENT
Albert Belle286.000$4.5M$5.7MFREE AGENT
Eddie Murray3918.000$3.0M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Omar Vizquel286.000$2.9M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M
Sandy Alomar Jr.297.000$2.5M$2.6M$2.6M$2.7M$2.8M$2.7MFREE AGENT
Ken Hill297.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Orel Hershiser3612.000$1.5M$1.8M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Jose Mesa298.000$1.4M$1.9M$1.9M$984kFREE AGENT
Paul Assenmacher349.000$1.3M$871k$875k$1.3M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Paul Sorrento296.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Eric Plunk319.000$725k$750k$1.9M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Dave Winfield4322.000$600kFREE AGENT
Tony Peña Sr.3815.000$517k$558kFREE AGENT
Alvaro Espinoza3311.000$450k$221kFREE AGENT
Bud Black3814.000$350kFREE AGENT
Jason Grimsley276.000$325kFREE AGENT
Dennis Cook327.000$105kFREE AGENT
Gregg Olson287.000$98kFREE AGENT
John Farrell328.000—FREE AGENT
Billy Ripken308.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Carlos Baerga265.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Kenny Lofton284.000$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Charles Nagy285.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Jim Thome244.000$825kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Clark274.000$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Wayne Kirby314.000$362kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Poole295.000$350kFREE AGENT
Ruben Amaro Jr.304.000$175kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Levis273.000$128kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Embree253.000$125kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scooter Tucker283.000$93kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (10)

PlayerAgeSvc1995199619971998199920002001
Jeromy Burnitz262.000$185kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manny Ramirez232.000$150kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Shuey241.000$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez222.000$120kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albie Lopez232.000$118kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Herbert Perry Jr.251.000$110kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Ogea241.000$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Giles240.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bell220.000$5kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Roa230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 1995; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});