RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

GM: John Hart

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.56× league · TAB +13.2
+13.2TAB — talent above budget2nd/28
+12.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/28
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/28
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/28
25%dead money %15th/28
0.615win %1st/28
52.5roster fWAR2nd/28
-8surplus $M (value vs cost)17th/28
$51Mpayroll $M2nd/28

1996: made playoffs · 99–62. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFKenny Lofton 152GRyan Thompson 8GMark Carreon 4G
LFAlbert Belle 152GBrian Giles 11GJeromy Burnitz 10G
RFManny Ramirez 149GWayne Kirby 10GBrian Giles 5G
SSOmar Vizquel 150GDamian Jackson 5GJose Vizcaino 4G
2BJose Vizcaino 138GCasey Candaele 11GJeff Kent 9G
3BJim Thome 150GJeff Kent 96GScott Leius 8G
1BMark Carreon 107GJulio Franco 97GKevin Seitzer 70G
STARTERSCharles Nagy 5.4WAROrel Hershiser 3.8WARJack McDowell 3.5WARChad Ogea 1.9WARDennis Martinez 1.5WAR
CSandy Alomar Jr. 124GTony Peña Sr. 67GEinar Díaz 4G
DHKevin Seitzer 73GBrian Giles 20GJulio Franco 13G
BULLPEN★ Jose Mesa 39svPaul Assenmacher 0hEric Plunk 0hJulian Tavarez 0hPaul Shuey 0hAlan Embree 0hDanny Graves 0hJoe Roa 0h
CSandy Alomar Jr. 124 · Tony Peña Sr. 67 · Einar Díaz 4
1BMark Carreon 107 · Julio Franco 97 · Kevin Seitzer 70
2BJose Vizcaino 138 · Casey Candaele 11 · Jeff Kent 9
3BJim Thome 150 · Jeff Kent 96 · Scott Leius 8
SSOmar Vizquel 150 · Damian Jackson 5 · Jose Vizcaino 4
LFAlbert Belle 152 · Brian Giles 11 · Jeromy Burnitz 10
CFKenny Lofton 152 · Ryan Thompson 8 · Mark Carreon 4
RFManny Ramirez 149 · Wayne Kirby 10 · Brian Giles 5
DHKevin Seitzer 73 · Brian Giles 20 · Julio Franco 13
SPCharles Nagy 5.4 · Orel Hershiser 3.8 · Jack McDowell 3.5 · Chad Ogea 1.9 · Dennis Martinez 1.5
BP★ Jose Mesa 39 · Paul Assenmacher 0 · Eric Plunk 0 · Julian Tavarez 0 · Paul Shuey 0 · Alan Embree 0 · Danny Graves 0 · Joe Roa 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1996 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jim Thome 25 arb 1517.4 1.6 +4.7
Charles Nagy 29 FA-elig 325.4 3.5 +1.1
Albert Belle 29 FA-elig 1585.2 5.7 -1.3
Kenny Lofton 29 arb 1544.6 3.6 +0.3
Manny Ramirez 24 arb 1524.3 1.1 +2.5
Orel Hershiser 37 FA-elig 333.8 1.8 +1.4
Jack McDowell 30 FA-elig 303.5 4.8 -1.8
Omar Vizquel 29 FA-elig 1513.2 3.0 -0.3
Julio Franco 37 FA-elig 1122.9 2.4 +0.0
Chad Ogea 25 pre-arb 291.9 0.1 +1.5
Eric Plunk 32 FA-elig 561.7 0.8 +0.6
Dennis Martinez 42 FA-elig 201.5 3.8 -2.5
Brian Giles 25 pre-arb 511.4 0.1 +1.1
Paul Assenmacher 35 FA-elig 631.4 0.9 +0.3
Jose Mesa 30 FA-elig 691.4 1.9 -0.7
Jeromy Burnitz↔ MIL 27 arb 711.2 0.1 +0.9
Kevin Seitzer↔ MIL 34 FA-elig 221.1 0.2 +0.8
Sandy Alomar Jr. 30 FA-elig 1271.0 2.6 -1.7
Julian Tavarez 23 arb 510.9 0.4 +0.4
Mark Carreon↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 380.5 0.3 +0.1
Jeff Kent↔ NYM 28 arb 390.5 0.6 -0.2
Paul Shuey 25 pre-arb 420.5 0.1 +0.2
Danny Graves 22 – 150.4 – –
Brian Anderson 24 – 100.4 – –
Alvaro Espinoza↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 590.2 0.2 -0.1
Damian Jackson 22 – 50.2 – –
Kent Mercker↔ BAL 28 FA-elig 100.2 1.2 -1.0
Albie Lopez 24 arb 130.1 0.1 -0.0
Jim Poole↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 320.1 0.2 -0.1
Nigel Wilson 26 arb 100.1 0.1 -0.0
Casey Candaele 35 FA-elig 240.0 0.1 -0.1
Ryan Thompson 28 arb 8-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Einar Díaz 23 – 4-0.0 – –
Geronimo Pena 29 – 5-0.0 – –
Joe Roa 24 – 1-0.0 – –
Jose Vizcaino↔ NYM 28 FA-elig 48-0.1 0.7 -0.8
Greg Swindell↔ HOU 31 FA-elig 13-0.2 2.8 -2.9
Wayne Kirby↔ LAD 32 arb 27-0.3 0.1 -0.3
Herbert Perry Jr. 26 – 7-0.3 – –
Eddie Murray↔ BAL 40 FA-elig 88-0.4 1.2 -1.5
Scott Leius 30 FA-elig 27-0.5 0.3 -0.7
Alan Embree 26 arb 24-0.6 0.2 -0.7
Tony Peña Sr. 39 FA-elig 67-0.6 0.6 -1.1
Carlos Baerga↔ NYM 27 FA-elig 100-1.5 3.8 -5.1

Key additions (new vs 1995)

PlayerfWAR
Jack McDowell3.5
Julio Franco2.9
Kevin Seitzer1.1
Mark Carreon0.5
Jeff Kent0.5
Danny Graves0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1995)

Player1995 fWAR
Mark Clark1.8
Ken Hill1.4
Bud Black0.5
Paul Sorrento0.4
Billy Ripken0.2
John Farrell0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

1996 payroll
$51.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 1996, 1996–2002. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (24)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Albert Belle297.000$5.7MFREE AGENT
Jack McDowell309.000$4.8M$4.8MFREE AGENT
Dennis Martinez4220.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Carlos Baerga276.000$3.8MFREE AGENT$300k
Charles Nagy296.000$3.5M$3.4M$3.4M$6.0M$6.0M$6.0M$6.0M
Omar Vizquel297.000$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$4.5M
Greg Swindell3110.000$2.8MFREE AGENT
Sandy Alomar Jr.308.000$2.6M$2.6M$2.7M$2.8M$2.7MFREE AGENT
Julio Franco3714.000$2.4M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Jose Mesa309.000$1.9M$1.9M$984kFREE AGENT
Orel Hershiser3713.000$1.8M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker287.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Eddie Murray4019.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Paul Assenmacher3510.000$871k$875k$1.3M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Eric Plunk3210.000$750k$1.9M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Jose Vizcaino287.000$733kFREE AGENT
Tony Peña Sr.3916.000$558kFREE AGENT
Mark Carreon329.000$319kFREE AGENT
Scott Leius306.000$300kFREE AGENT
Jim Poole306.000$239kFREE AGENT$684k$472k
Alvaro Espinoza3412.000$221kFREE AGENT
Kevin Seitzer3410.000$164k$1.2MFREE AGENT
Casey Candaele3510.000$150kFREE AGENT
Geronimo Pena296.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Kenny Lofton295.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Jim Thome255.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Manny Ramirez243.000$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Kent284.000$597kARB 3FREE AGENT
Julian Tavarez233.000$392kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Thompson284.000$275kARB 3FREE AGENT
Alan Embree264.000$155kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeromy Burnitz273.000$144kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albie Lopez243.000$132kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wayne Kirby325.000$128kFREE AGENT
Nigel Wilson263.000$125kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Anderson243.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1996199719981999200020012002
Chad Ogea252.000$145kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Shuey252.000$138kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Giles251.000$110kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Einar Díaz230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Graves220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damian Jackson220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Herbert Perry Jr.262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Roa241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 1996; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});