RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

GM: John Hart

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.35× league · TAB +4.3
+4.3TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+3.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
20%dead money %9th/30
0.549win %7th/30
42.1roster fWAR7th/30
-10surplus $M (value vs cost)21st/30
$56Mpayroll $M7th/30

1998: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKenny Lofton 154GMark Whiten 22GBrian Giles 3G
LFBrian Giles 95GMark Whiten 43GDavid Justice 19G
RFManny Ramirez 148GMark Whiten 13GBrian Giles 6G
SSOmar Vizquel 151GEnrique Wilson 10GTravis Fryman 3G
2BJoey Cora 151GJeff Branson 31GEnrique Wilson 22G
3BTravis Fryman 144GJeff Branson 20GJeff Manto 8G
1BJim Thome 117GCecil Fielder 75GRichie Sexson 45G
STARTERSBartolo Colon 4.4WARJaret Wright 2.3WARDave Burba 1.9WARDwight Gooden 1.7WARCharles Nagy 1.2WAR
CSandy Alomar Jr. 111GPat Borders 53GEinar Díaz 17G
DHDavid Justice 116GCecil Fielder 38GJim Thome 6G
BULLPEN★ Mike Jackson 40svSteve Reed 0hPaul Assenmacher 0hDoug Jones 0hPaul Shuey 0hJim Poole 0hRon Villone 0hTom Martin 0h
CSandy Alomar Jr. 111 · Pat Borders 53 · Einar Díaz 17
1BJim Thome 117 · Cecil Fielder 75 · Richie Sexson 45
2BJoey Cora 151 · Jeff Branson 31 · Enrique Wilson 22
3BTravis Fryman 144 · Jeff Branson 20 · Jeff Manto 8
SSOmar Vizquel 151 · Enrique Wilson 10 · Travis Fryman 3
LFBrian Giles 95 · Mark Whiten 43 · David Justice 19
CFKenny Lofton 154 · Mark Whiten 22 · Brian Giles 3
RFManny Ramirez 148 · Mark Whiten 13 · Brian Giles 6
DHDavid Justice 116 · Cecil Fielder 38 · Jim Thome 6
SPBartolo Colon 4.4 · Jaret Wright 2.3 · Dave Burba 1.9 · Dwight Gooden 1.7 · Charles Nagy 1.2
BP★ Mike Jackson 40 · Steve Reed 0 · Paul Assenmacher 0 · Doug Jones 0 · Paul Shuey 0 · Jim Poole 0 · Ron Villone 0 · Tom Martin 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1998 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kenny Lofton 31 FA-elig 1545.6 7.5 -1.5
Manny Ramirez 26 arb 1505.4 2.9 +3.0
Bartolo Colon 25 pre-arb 314.4 0.2 +4.6
Brian Giles 27 arb 1124.0 0.3 +4.0
Omar Vizquel 31 FA-elig 1513.4 3.0 +0.7
Jim Thome 27 FA-elig 1233.3 4.8 -1.2
Travis Fryman 29 FA-elig 1462.6 5.4 -2.5
Jaret Wright 22 pre-arb 322.3 0.2 +2.2
Dave Burba 31 FA-elig 321.9 2.8 -0.7
Mike Jackson 33 FA-elig 691.9 2.0 +0.0
Mark Whiten 31 FA-elig 881.8 0.2 +1.7
Dwight Gooden 33 FA-elig 231.7 2.8 -0.9
David Justice 32 FA-elig 1461.7 6.5 -4.7
Charles Nagy 31 FA-elig 331.2 3.4 -2.1
Richie Sexson 23 pre-arb 491.0 0.2 +0.9
Doug Jones↔ MIL 41 FA-elig 230.7 0.8 -0.0
Paul Assenmacher 37 FA-elig 690.6 1.3 -0.6
Paul Shuey 27 arb 430.5 0.6 -0.0
David Bell↔ SEA 25 arb 1070.5 0.2 +0.4
Enrique Wilson 24 pre-arb 320.5 0.2 +0.3
Chad Ogea 27 arb 190.4 1.0 -0.6
Alvin Morman↔ SFG 29 pre-arb 310.3 0.2 +0.1
Jim Poole↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 120.2 0.3 -0.1
Eric Plunk↔ MIL 34 FA-elig 370.2 1.1 -0.9
Steve Reed↔ SFG 33 FA-elig 200.1 0.3 -0.1
Einar Díaz 25 pre-arb 170.1 0.2 -0.0
Steve Karsay 26 arb 110.1 0.4 -0.3
Tim Worrell↔ DET 30 arb 30.1 0.1 -0.0
Sandy Alomar Jr. 32 FA-elig 1170.0 2.7 -2.7
Torey Lovullo 32 – 6-0.0 – –
Jacob Cruz↔ SFG 25 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jose Mesa↔ SFG 32 FA-elig 44-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Jason Rakers 25 – 1-0.0 – –
Jolbert Cabrera 25 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Matt Luke↔ LAD 27 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Rick Krivda↔ CIN 28 arb 11-0.1 0.1 -0.2
Russell Branyan 22 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Alex Ramirez 23 – 3-0.1 – –
Jason Jacome 27 – 1-0.2 – –
Geronimo Berroa↔ DET 33 FA-elig 20-0.3 0.6 -0.9
Jeff Manto↔ DET 33 FA-elig 15-0.3 0.1 -0.5
Ron Villone 28 arb 25-0.3 0.2 -0.6
Shawon Dunston↔ SFG 35 FA-elig 62-0.3 0.6 -1.0
Tom Martin 28 pre-arb 14-0.4 0.2 -0.6
Joey Cora↔ SEA 33 FA-elig 24-0.5 0.3 -0.8
Pat Borders 35 FA-elig 54-0.5 0.5 -1.0
Cecil Fielder↔ ANA 34 FA-elig 14-0.6 0.3 -1.0
Jeff Branson 31 FA-elig 63-0.6 0.6 -1.2

Key additions (new vs 1997)

PlayerfWAR
Kenny Lofton5.6
Travis Fryman2.6
Dave Burba1.9
Mark Whiten1.8
Dwight Gooden1.7
Doug Jones0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 1997)

Player1997 fWAR
Matt Williams4.1
Tony Fernandez2.1
Marquis Grissom2.0
Orel Hershiser1.4
Jack McDowell0.5
Brian Anderson0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

1998 payroll
$56.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 1998, 1998–2004. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (25)

PlayerAgeSvc1998199920002001200220032004
Kenny Lofton317.000$7.5M$7.5M$7.5M$8.0MFREE AGENT
David Justice329.000$6.5M$7.0M$3.7MFREE AGENT
Travis Fryman298.000$5.4M$5.2M$5.5M$5.8M$5.8MFREE AGENT
Jim Thome277.000$4.8M$8.2M$8.2M$7.9M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Charles Nagy318.000$3.4M$6.0M$6.0M$6.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Omar Vizquel319.000$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$4.5M$5.5M$6.0M
Dave Burba318.000$2.8M$4.7M$5.0M$5.0M$1.3MFREE AGENT
Dwight Gooden3314.000$2.8M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Sandy Alomar Jr.3210.000$2.7M$2.8M$2.7MFREE AGENT
Mike Jackson3312.000$2.0M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Paul Assenmacher3712.000$1.3M$1.5MFREE AGENT
Eric Plunk3412.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Jose Mesa3211.000$984kFREE AGENT
Doug Jones4116.000$833kFREE AGENT
Shawon Dunston3513.000$633kFREE AGENT
Geronimo Berroa339.000$611kFREE AGENT
Jeff Branson316.000$550kFREE AGENT
Pat Borders3510.000$500k$135kFREE AGENT
Cecil Fielder3413.000$335kFREE AGENT
Jim Poole328.000$316k$472kFREE AGENT
Steve Reed336.000$286k$1.4M$1.6M$891kFREE AGENT
Joey Cora3311.000$263kFREE AGENT
Mark Whiten318.000$200k$450kFREE AGENT
Jeff Manto338.000$121kFREE AGENT
Torey Lovullo3210.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc1998199920002001200220032004
Manny Ramirez265.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Chad Ogea274.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Shuey274.000$568kARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Karsay265.000$400kFREE AGENT
Brian Giles273.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Villone283.000$240kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Bell253.000$162kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rick Krivda283.000$84kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Worrell305.000$70kFREE AGENT
Jason Jacome274.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc1998199920002001200220032004
Tom Martin281.000$190kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaret Wright221.000$190kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bartolo Colon251.000$180kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Einar Díaz252.000$178kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Sexson231.000$175kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enrique Wilson241.000$175kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alvin Morman292.000$170kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Russell Branyan220.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jolbert Cabrera250.000$170kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Cruz252.000$43kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Luke272.000$3kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Rakers250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Ramirez230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 1998; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});