RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

GM: John Hart

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.44× league · TAB +4.9
+4.9TAB — talent above budget8th/28
+0.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)15th/28
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/28
-2.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/28
24%dead money %13th/28
0.534win %9th/28
43.1roster fWAR6th/28
-13surplus $M (value vs cost)19th/28
$56Mpayroll $M3rd/28

1997: won pennant · 86–75. Ranks are vs the 28 teams that season.

Roster

CFMarquis Grissom 144GBrian Giles 20GBruce Aven 1G
LFBip Roberts 92GBrian Giles 82GDavid Justice 74G
RFManny Ramirez 146GBrian Giles 25GDavid Justice 5G
SSOmar Vizquel 152GJeff Branson 13GTony Fernández 10G
2BTony Fernández 109GJulio Franco 35GJeff Branson 33G
3BMatt Williams 151GJeff Branson 33GKevin Seitzer 13G
1BJim Thome 145GKevin Seitzer 19GJeff Manto 6G
STARTERSCharles Nagy 2.9WARChad Ogea 1.6WAROrel Hershiser 1.4WARJaret Wright 1.2WARBartolo Colon 0.7WAR
CSandy Alomar Jr. 119GPat Borders 53GEinar Díaz 5G
DHDavid Justice 59GKevin Seitzer 23GKevin Mitchell 15G
BULLPEN★ Jose Mesa 16svPaul Assenmacher 0hMike Jackson 0hEric Plunk 0hPaul Shuey 0hAlvin Morman 0hJason Jacome 0hDavid Weathers 0h
CSandy Alomar Jr. 119 · Pat Borders 53 · Einar Díaz 5
1BJim Thome 145 · Kevin Seitzer 19 · Jeff Manto 6
2BTony Fernández 109 · Julio Franco 35 · Jeff Branson 33
3BMatt Williams 151 · Jeff Branson 33 · Kevin Seitzer 13
SSOmar Vizquel 152 · Jeff Branson 13 · Tony Fernández 10
LFBip Roberts 92 · Brian Giles 82 · David Justice 74
CFMarquis Grissom 144 · Brian Giles 20 · Bruce Aven 1
RFManny Ramirez 146 · Brian Giles 25 · David Justice 5
DHDavid Justice 59 · Kevin Seitzer 23 · Kevin Mitchell 15
SPCharles Nagy 2.9 · Chad Ogea 1.6 · Orel Hershiser 1.4 · Jaret Wright 1.2 · Bartolo Colon 0.7
BP★ Jose Mesa 16 · Paul Assenmacher 0 · Mike Jackson 0 · Eric Plunk 0 · Paul Shuey 0 · Alvin Morman 0 · Jason Jacome 0 · David Weathers 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1997 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jim Thome 26 FA-elig 1475.1 2.6 +2.6
Manny Ramirez 25 arb 1504.6 2.1 +2.6
David Justice 31 FA-elig 1394.2 6.3 -2.0
Sandy Alomar Jr. 31 FA-elig 1254.2 2.6 +1.7
Matt Williams 31 FA-elig 1514.1 7.2 -2.9
Charles Nagy 30 FA-elig 342.9 3.4 -0.5
Omar Vizquel 30 FA-elig 1532.7 3.0 -0.3
Tony Fernandez 35 FA-elig 1202.1 1.6 +0.6
Brian Giles 26 pre-arb 1302.1 0.2 +1.9
Marquis Grissom 30 FA-elig 1442.0 4.8 -2.9
Mike Jackson 32 FA-elig 711.7 2.0 -0.3
Chad Ogea 26 arb 211.6 0.5 +1.1
Orel Hershiser 38 FA-elig 321.4 3.1 -1.6
Jaret Wright 21 pre-arb 161.2 0.1 +1.1
Jose Mesa 31 FA-elig 661.0 1.9 -0.9
Paul Assenmacher 36 FA-elig 751.0 0.9 +0.1
Bartolo Colon 24 pre-arb 190.7 0.1 +0.5
Pat Borders 34 FA-elig 550.6 0.4 +0.2
Jack McDowell 31 FA-elig 80.5 4.8 -4.3
Brian Anderson 25 – 80.4 – –
Chad Curtis↔ NYY 28 arb 220.3 0.2 +0.1
Jeff Branson↔ CIN 30 arb 290.2 0.2 +0.0
Jeff Juden↔ WSN 26 FA-elig 80.2 0.0 +0.2
Terry Clark↔ TEX 36 FA-elig 40.2 0.1 +0.1
Casey Candaele 36 – 140.1 – –
Julio Franco↔ MIL 38 FA-elig 780.1 2.1 -2.0
Paul Shuey 26 arb 400.1 0.2 -0.1
Bip Roberts↔ KCR 33 FA-elig 230.1 0.4 -0.3
David Weathers↔ NYY 27 FA-elig 90.1 0.2 -0.1
Jeff Manto 32 FA-elig 160.0 0.2 -0.2
Enrique Wilson 23 – 50.0 – –
Trenidad Hubbard 33 – 70.0 – –
Albie Lopez 25 arb 370.0 0.2 -0.2
John Smiley↔ CIN 32 FA-elig 6-0.0 0.9 -0.9
Einar Díaz 24 – 5-0.1 – –
Sean Casey 22 – 6-0.1 – –
Richie Sexson 22 – 5-0.1 – –
Bruce Aven 25 – 13-0.1 – –
Damian Jackson↔ CIN 23 – 8-0.1 – –
Jason Jacome↔ KCR 26 arb 21-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Alvin Morman 28 pre-arb 34-0.2 0.2 -0.4
Danny Graves↔ CIN 23 pre-arb 5-0.3 0.1 -0.3
Kevin Seitzer 35 FA-elig 64-0.3 1.2 -1.5
Eric Plunk 33 FA-elig 55-0.3 1.9 -2.2
Kevin Mitchell 35 FA-elig 20-0.5 0.5 -1.0
Steve Kline↔ WSN 24 pre-arb 20-0.5 0.1 -0.5

Key additions (new vs 1996)

PlayerfWAR
David Justice4.2
Matt Williams4.1
Tony Fernandez2.1
Marquis Grissom2.0
Mike Jackson1.7
Jaret Wright1.2

Key subtractions (gone from 1996)

Player1996 fWAR
Albert Belle5.2
Kenny Lofton4.6
Dennis Martinez1.5
Jeromy Burnitz1.2
Julian Tavarez0.9
Mark Carreon0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

1997 payroll
$56.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 1997, 1997–2003. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (25)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Matt Williams3110.000$7.2MFREE AGENT
David Justice318.000$6.3M$6.5M$7.0M$3.7MFREE AGENT
Marquis Grissom308.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Jack McDowell3110.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Charles Nagy307.000$3.4M$3.4M$6.0M$6.0M$6.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Orel Hershiser3814.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Omar Vizquel308.000$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$3.0M$4.5M$5.5M
Jim Thome266.000$2.6M$4.8M$8.2M$8.2M$7.9M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Sandy Alomar Jr.319.000$2.6M$2.7M$2.8M$2.7MFREE AGENT
Julio Franco3815.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Mike Jackson3211.000$2.0M$2.0M$2.1MFREE AGENT
Jose Mesa3110.000$1.9M$984kFREE AGENT
Eric Plunk3311.000$1.9M$1.1MFREE AGENT
Tony Fernandez3514.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Kevin Seitzer3511.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Paul Assenmacher3611.000$875k$1.3M$1.5MFREE AGENT
John Smiley3211.000$865kFREE AGENT
Kevin Mitchell3513.000$500kFREE AGENT
Pat Borders349.000$400k$500k$135kFREE AGENT
Bip Roberts3311.000$374kFREE AGENT
Jeff Manto327.000$240k$129kFREE AGENT
David Weathers276.000$206kFREE AGENT
Terry Clark369.000$62kFREE AGENT
Jeff Juden266.000$49kFREE AGENT
Casey Candaele3611.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Manny Ramirez254.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Ogea263.000$533kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Shuey263.000$197kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Albie Lopez254.000$176kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Curtis285.000$172kFREE AGENT
Jeff Branson305.000$170kFREE AGENT
Jason Jacome263.000$165kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Anderson254.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trenidad Hubbard333.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (12)

PlayerAgeSvc1997199819992000200120022003
Brian Giles262.000$175kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alvin Morman281.000$165kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jaret Wright210.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bartolo Colon240.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steve Kline240.000$65kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Graves231.000$53kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bruce Aven250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Casey220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Einar Díaz241.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Damian Jackson231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richie Sexson220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enrique Wilson230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 1997; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});