RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Chris Antonetti · GM: Mike Chernoff

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.65× league · TAB +12.9
+12.9TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+17.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-3.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
34%dead money %14th/30
0.584win %4th/30
41.8roster fWAR8th/30
+54surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$82Mpayroll $M23rd/30

2016: won pennant · 94–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTyler Naquin 105GRajai Davis 80GMichael Martinez 11G
LFCoco Crisp 71GRajai Davis 66GBrandon Guyer 51G
RFLonnie Chisenhall 118GAbraham Almonte 36GMarlon Byrd 21G
SSFrancisco Lindor 155GErik González 8GMichael Martinez 6G
2BJason Kipnis 151GMichael Martinez 21GJosé Ramírez 9G
3BJosé Ramírez 117GJuan Uribe 68GChris Gimenez 3G
1BMike Napoli 98GCarlos Santana 64GJesús Aguilar 7G
STARTERSCorey Kluber 5.0WARTrevor Bauer 2.5WARCarlos Carrasco 2.4WARDanny Salazar 2.4WARJosh Tomlin 1.1WAR
CYan Gomes 73GRoberto Pérez 61GChris Gimenez 59G
DHCarlos Santana 92GMike Napoli 51GCoco Crisp 14G
BULLPEN★ Cody Allen 32svBryan Shaw 25hAndrew Miller 25hZach McAllister 7hJeff Manship 6hDan Otero 3hKyle Crockett 3hJoba Chamberlain 0h
CYan Gomes 73 · Roberto Pérez 61 · Chris Gimenez 59
1BMike Napoli 98 · Carlos Santana 64 · Jesús Aguilar 7
2BJason Kipnis 151 · Michael Martinez 21 · José Ramírez 9
3BJosé Ramírez 117 · Juan Uribe 68 · Chris Gimenez 3
SSFrancisco Lindor 155 · Erik González 8 · Michael Martinez 6
LFCoco Crisp 71 · Rajai Davis 66 · Brandon Guyer 51
CFTyler Naquin 105 · Rajai Davis 80 · Michael Martinez 11
RFLonnie Chisenhall 118 · Abraham Almonte 36 · Marlon Byrd 21
DHCarlos Santana 92 · Mike Napoli 51 · Coco Crisp 14
SPCorey Kluber 5.0 · Trevor Bauer 2.5 · Carlos Carrasco 2.4 · Danny Salazar 2.4 · Josh Tomlin 1.1
BP★ Cody Allen 32 · Bryan Shaw 25 · Andrew Miller 25 · Zach McAllister 7 · Jeff Manship 6 · Dan Otero 3 · Kyle Crockett 3 · Joba Chamberlain 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Francisco Lindor 22 pre-arb 1585.2 0.5 +16.3
José Ramírez 23 arb 1525.0 0.5 +15.8
Corey Kluber 30 arb 325.0 4.7 +11.6
Jason Kipnis 29 arb 1564.0 6.2 +6.9
Carlos Santana 30 FA-elig 1583.3 8.2 +2.5
Trevor Bauer 25 pre-arb 352.5 1.7 +6.5
Danny Salazar 26 arb 252.4 0.5 +7.4
Carlos Carrasco 29 FA-elig 252.4 4.5 +3.3
Tyler Naquin 25 pre-arb 1162.0 0.5 +6.0
Dan Otero 31 arb 621.6 0.5 +4.5
Mike Napoli 34 FA-elig 1501.2 7.0 -3.1
Rajai Davis 35 FA-elig 1341.1 5.2 -1.6
Josh Tomlin 31 FA-elig 301.1 2.2 +1.4
Lonnie Chisenhall 27 arb 1261.1 2.7 +0.8
Andrew Miller↔ NYY 31 FA-elig 261.1 3.3 +0.1
Cody Allen 27 arb 671.0 4.2 -0.9
Brandon Guyer↔ TBR 30 arb 381.0 0.4 +2.8
Roberto Pérez 27 pre-arb 611.0 0.5 +2.6
Abraham Almonte 27 pre-arb 670.5 0.3 +1.4
Bryan Shaw 28 arb 750.4 2.8 -1.5
Zach McAllister 28 arb 530.4 1.3 -0.1
Kyle Crockett 24 pre-arb 290.3 0.2 +0.9
Tommy Hunter↔ BAL 29 FA-elig 210.3 1.3 -0.3
Ryan Merritt 24 – 40.3 0.1 +0.8
Mike Clevinger 25 – 170.2 0.2 +0.4
Cody Anderson 25 pre-arb 190.2 0.5 +0.0
Erik González 24 – 210.1 0.1 +0.3
Perci Garner 27 – 80.1 0.1 +0.3
Joba Chamberlain 30 FA-elig 200.1 1.0 -0.7
Marlon Byrd 38 FA-elig 340.1 1.0 -0.8
TJ House 26 pre-arb 40.0 0.0 +0.1
Shawn Armstrong 25 pre-arb 100.0 0.1 -0.0
Coco Crisp↔ OAK 36 FA-elig 20-0.0 1.8 -1.8
Adam Plutko 24 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Michael Brantley 29 FA-elig 11-0.1 7.4 -7.6
Adam Moore 32 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Ross Detwiler↔ OAK 30 FA-elig 7-0.1 0.4 -0.9
Jesús Aguilar 26 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Joe Colón J 26 – 11-0.1 – –
Collin Cowgill 30 arb 9-0.1 1.0 -1.5
Tom Gorzelanny 33 – 7-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Michael Martinez↔ BOS 33 pre-arb 59-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Shawn Morimando 23 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.6
Austin Adams 29 pre-arb 19-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Chris Gimenez 33 arb 68-0.2 0.8 -1.6
Jeff Manship 31 FA-elig 53-0.3 0.8 -1.8
Juan Uribe 37 FA-elig 73-0.5 4.0 -5.5
Yan Gomes 28 arb 74-0.8 2.5 -5.2

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Tyler Naquin2.0
Dan Otero1.6
Mike Napoli1.2
Rajai Davis1.1
Andrew Miller1.1
Brandon Guyer1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
David Murphy0.4
Marc Rzepczynski0.3
Nick Hagadone0.2
Ryan Webb0.1
Anthony Swarzak0.1
Gavin Floyd0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$82.0M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Mike Napoli349.151$7.0MFREE AGENT
Rajai Davis358.167$5.2MFREE AGENT
Juan Uribe3715.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller317.062$3.3MFREE AGENT
Coco Crisp3614.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Tommy Hunter296.090$1.3MFREE AGENT
Marlon Byrd3811.115$1.0MFREE AGENT
Joba Chamberlain309.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Ross Detwiler306.002$438kFREE AGENT
Tom Gorzelanny338.160$113kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Carlos Santana305.115$8.2MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley295.131$7.4MFREE AGENT
Jason Kipnis294.069$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Kluber303.074$4.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco294.147$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Allen273.076$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw284.081$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall273.158$2.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yan Gomes283.083$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin315.033$2.2MFREE AGENT
Zach McAllister283.077$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Collin Cowgill303.151$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Gimenez333.163$810kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer303.066$446kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Trevor Bauer251.158$1.7MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Manship312.130$760kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Lindor220.113$540kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Salazar261.162$536kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Otero312.124$520kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez231.074$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Pérez271.083$516kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Anderson250.106$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Naquin250.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Almonte271.052$255kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Crockett241.003$238kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Clevinger250.000$216kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Adams292.000$186kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Martinez332.134$153kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik González240.000$147kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Moore322.077$97kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Perci Garner27–$94k
Shawn Armstrong250.041$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Merritt240.000$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar260.060$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
TJ House261.104$42kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Plutko240.000$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Morimando230.000$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Colón J26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});