RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Chris Antonetti · GM: Mike Chernoff

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.93× league · TAB +25.2
+25.2TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+20.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-1.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
19%dead money %4th/30
0.630win %2nd/30
58.6roster fWAR1st/30
+79surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$122Mpayroll $M18th/30

2017: made playoffs · 102–60. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFBradley Zimmer 97GAustin Jackson 38GGreg Allen 21G
LFMichael Brantley 87GAustin Jackson 38GBrandon Guyer 33G
RFJay Bruce 133GLonnie Chisenhall 45GBrandon Guyer 37G
SSFrancisco Lindor 158GErik González 11GGio Urshela 5G
2BJason Kipnis 75GJosé Ramírez 71GErik González 36G
3BJosé Ramírez 88GGio Urshela 60GYandy Díaz 40G
1BCarlos Santana 140GEdwin Encarnación 23GJay Bruce 12G
STARTERSCorey Kluber 7.3WARCarlos Carrasco 5.4WARTrevor Bauer 2.8WARDanny Salazar 2.1WARMike Clevinger 2.0WAR
CYan Gomes 103GRoberto Pérez 71GFrancisco Mejía 3G
DHEdwin Encarnación 132GCarlos Santana 7GYandy Díaz 6G
BULLPEN★ Cody Allen 30svAndrew Miller 27hBryan Shaw 26hJoe Smith 22hNick Goody 6hBoone Logan 4hZach McAllister 3hDan Otero 2h
CYan Gomes 103 · Roberto Pérez 71 · Francisco Mejía 3
1BCarlos Santana 140 · Edwin Encarnación 23 · Jay Bruce 12
2BJason Kipnis 75 · José Ramírez 71 · Erik González 36
3BJosé Ramírez 88 · Gio Urshela 60 · Yandy Díaz 40
SSFrancisco Lindor 158 · Erik González 11 · Gio Urshela 5
LFMichael Brantley 87 · Austin Jackson 38 · Brandon Guyer 33
CFBradley Zimmer 97 · Austin Jackson 38 · Greg Allen 21
RFJay Bruce 133 · Lonnie Chisenhall 45 · Brandon Guyer 37
DHEdwin Encarnación 132 · Carlos Santana 7 · Yandy Díaz 6
SPCorey Kluber 7.3 · Carlos Carrasco 5.4 · Trevor Bauer 2.8 · Danny Salazar 2.1 · Mike Clevinger 2.0
BP★ Cody Allen 30 · Andrew Miller 27 · Bryan Shaw 26 · Joe Smith 22 · Nick Goody 6 · Boone Logan 4 · Zach McAllister 3 · Dan Otero 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Corey Kluber 31 FA-elig 297.3 7.7 +16.8
José Ramírez 24 arb 1527.0 1.0 +22.6
Francisco Lindor 23 pre-arb 1595.8 0.6 +19.0
Carlos Carrasco 30 FA-elig 325.4 6.5 +11.6
Carlos Santana 31 FA-elig 1542.9 12.0 -2.1
Trevor Bauer 26 arb 322.8 3.5 +5.8
Edwin Encarnación 34 FA-elig 1572.6 14.7 -5.9
Andrew Miller 32 FA-elig 572.3 9.0 -1.4
Danny Salazar 27 arb 232.1 3.4 +3.9
Josh Tomlin 32 FA-elig 262.0 2.5 +4.4
Mike Clevinger 26 pre-arb 272.0 0.4 +6.5
Austin Jackson 30 FA-elig 851.9 1.5 +4.8
Lonnie Chisenhall 28 FA-elig 821.8 4.3 +1.9
Michael Brantley 30 FA-elig 901.8 8.4 -2.2
Yan Gomes 29 arb 1051.8 4.5 +1.7
Roberto Pérez 28 arb 731.7 0.7 +5.1
Bryan Shaw 29 FA-elig 791.5 4.6 +0.4
Cody Allen 28 arb 691.4 7.3 -2.6
Bradley Zimmer 24 – 1011.0 0.4 +2.9
Joe Smith↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 210.8 1.1 +1.5
Nick Goody 25 pre-arb 560.6 0.5 +1.7
Jay Bruce↔ NYM 30 FA-elig 430.6 3.8 -1.8
Ryan Merritt 25 pre-arb 50.5 0.1 +1.7
Tyler Olson 27 pre-arb 300.5 0.2 +1.5
Erik González 25 pre-arb 600.4 0.4 +1.1
Zach McAllister 29 FA-elig 500.4 1.8 -0.4
Dan Otero 32 arb 520.4 1.1 +0.3
Jason Kipnis 30 FA-elig 900.4 9.2 -7.9
Boone Logan 32 FA-elig 390.3 5.5 -4.5
Michael Martinez↔ TBR 34 FA-elig 150.1 0.3 +0.0
Craig Breslow↔ MIN 36 FA-elig 70.1 0.2 +0.1
Abraham Almonte 28 arb 690.1 0.5 -0.3
Greg Allen 24 – 250.1 0.1 +0.1
Yandy Díaz 25 pre-arb 490.0 0.5 -0.4
Kyle Crockett 25 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Brandon Guyer 31 FA-elig 70-0.0 2.0 -2.2
Shawn Armstrong 26 pre-arb 21-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Tyler Naquin 26 pre-arb 19-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Francisco Mejía 21 – 11-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Daniel Robertson 31 – 32-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Gio Urshela 25 – 67-0.9 – –

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Edwin Encarnación2.6
Austin Jackson1.9
Bradley Zimmer1.0
Joe Smith0.8
Nick Goody0.6
Jay Bruce0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Mike Napoli1.2
Rajai Davis1.1
Tommy Hunter0.3
Perci Garner0.1
Joba Chamberlain0.1
Marlon Byrd0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$121.7M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Edwin Encarnación3411.085$14.7MFREE AGENT
Carlos Santana316.115$12.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller328.062$9.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley306.131$8.4MFREE AGENT
Boone Logan329.140$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jay Bruce308.125$3.8MFREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin326.033$2.5MFREE AGENT
Austin Jackson307.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith339.091$1.1MFREE AGENT
Craig Breslow368.129$236kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Jason Kipnis305.069$9.2MFREE AGENT
Corey Kluber314.074$7.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Allen284.076$7.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco305.147$6.5MFREE AGENT
Bryan Shaw295.081$4.6MFREE AGENT
Yan Gomes294.083$4.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall284.158$4.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer314.066$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McAllister294.077$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Otero323.124$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Martinez343.140$321kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Robertson313.000$123kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Trevor Bauer262.158$3.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Salazar272.162$3.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez242.074$971kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Pérez282.083$675kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Lindor231.113$579kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Naquin260.163$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Almonte282.052$544kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong260.074$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yandy Díaz250.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Goody250.160$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradley Zimmer240.000$406kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Clevinger260.079$389kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik González250.053$365kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Olson270.059$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Merritt250.032$123kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Crockett251.119$117kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía210.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Allen240.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gio Urshela252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});