RRosternomics
𝕏

Guardians CLE

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Chris Antonetti · GM: Mike Chernoff

Overview

CONTEND → steady
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.09× league · TAB +12.5
+12.5TAB — talent above budget6th/30
+8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-5.4dead WAR — sub-replacement drag19th/30
38%dead money %19th/30
0.562win %8th/30
47.8roster fWAR5th/30
+20surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$143Mpayroll $M12th/30

2018: made playoffs · 91–71. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFLeonys Martin 79GGreg Allen 78GRajai Davis 47G
LFMichael Brantley 134GRajai Davis 30GBrandon Guyer 21G
RFBrandon Guyer 76GMelky Cabrera 68GTyler Naquin 39G
SSFrancisco Lindor 157GErik González 16GAdam Rosales 2G
2BJason Kipnis 131GErik González 30GJosé Ramírez 16G
3BJosé Ramírez 137GJosh Donaldson 38GErik González 20G
1BYonder Alonso 138GEdwin Encarnación 23GYandy Díaz 9G
STARTERSTrevor Bauer 5.8WARCorey Kluber 5.4WARCarlos Carrasco 5.3WARMike Clevinger 4.1WARShane Bieber 2.8WAR
CYan Gomes 111GRoberto Pérez 58GEric Haase 7G
DHEdwin Encarnación 115GYandy Díaz 16GRajai Davis 12G
BULLPEN★ Brad Hand 32svOliver Pérez 15hNeil Ramírez 13hAdam Cimber 12hAndrew Miller 10hCody Allen 7hTyler Olson 5hDan Otero 1h
CYan Gomes 111 · Roberto Pérez 58 · Eric Haase 7
1BYonder Alonso 138 · Edwin Encarnación 23 · Yandy Díaz 9
2BJason Kipnis 131 · Erik González 30 · José Ramírez 16
3BJosé Ramírez 137 · Josh Donaldson 38 · Erik González 20
SSFrancisco Lindor 157 · Erik González 16 · Adam Rosales 2
LFMichael Brantley 134 · Rajai Davis 30 · Brandon Guyer 21
CFLeonys Martin 79 · Greg Allen 78 · Rajai Davis 47
RFBrandon Guyer 76 · Melky Cabrera 68 · Tyler Naquin 39
DHEdwin Encarnación 115 · Yandy Díaz 16 · Rajai Davis 12
SPTrevor Bauer 5.8 · Corey Kluber 5.4 · Carlos Carrasco 5.3 · Mike Clevinger 4.1 · Shane Bieber 2.8
BP★ Brad Hand 32 · Oliver Pérez 15 · Neil Ramírez 13 · Adam Cimber 12 · Andrew Miller 10 · Cody Allen 7 · Tyler Olson 5 · Dan Otero 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Francisco Lindor 24 arb 1587.8 0.6 +25.9
José Ramírez 25 arb 1577.6 2.8 +23.1
Trevor Bauer 27 FA-elig 285.8 6.5 +13.2
Corey Kluber 32 FA-elig 335.4 10.7 +7.7
Carlos Carrasco 31 FA-elig 325.3 8.0 +10.1
Mike Clevinger 27 pre-arb 324.1 0.6 +13.5
Michael Brantley 31 FA-elig 1433.5 11.5 +0.5
Shane Bieber 23 – 202.8 0.3 +9.2
Yan Gomes 30 FA-elig 1122.6 6.0 +3.0
Jason Kipnis 31 FA-elig 1471.4 13.7 -9.1
Edwin Encarnación 35 FA-elig 1371.3 18.7 -14.4
Oliver Pérez 36 FA-elig 511.0 1.8 +1.8
Josh Donaldson↔ TOR 32 FA-elig 160.5 7.1 -5.3
Greg Allen 25 pre-arb 910.5 0.3 +1.5
Brad Hand↔ SDP 28 FA-elig 280.5 1.7 -0.0
Lonnie Chisenhall 29 FA-elig 290.4 5.6 -4.1
Tyler Olson 28 arb 430.4 0.5 +0.7
Andrew Miller 33 FA-elig 370.3 9.0 -7.8
Yandy Díaz 26 pre-arb 390.3 0.2 +1.0
Roberto Pérez 29 arb 620.3 1.6 -0.5
Bradley Zimmer 25 pre-arb 340.3 0.6 +0.3
Brandon Guyer 32 FA-elig 1040.3 2.8 -1.9
Leonys Martin↔ DET 30 FA-elig 60.2 0.1 +0.6
Evan Marshall 28 pre-arb 100.1 0.2 +0.2
Brandon Barnes 32 arb 190.1 0.1 +0.3
Adam Rosales 35 FA-elig 130.1 0.1 +0.2
Yonder Alonso 31 FA-elig 1450.1 7.0 -6.7
Melky Cabrera 33 FA-elig 780.0 1.0 -0.8
Oliver Drake↔ ANA 31 arb 40.0 0.1 +0.1
Marc Rzepczynski↔ SEA 32 FA-elig 50.0 1.2 -1.1
Francisco Mejía↔ SDP 22 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Matt Belisle↔ MIN 38 FA-elig 8-0.0 0.4 -0.4
George Kontos↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 6-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Ben Taylor 25 pre-arb 6-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Zach McAllister↔ DET 30 FA-elig 41-0.1 2.3 -2.5
Alexi Ogando 34 FA-elig 1-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Jon Edwards 30 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Cody Allen 29 FA-elig 70-0.1 10.6 -10.9
Erik González 26 pre-arb 81-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Neil Ramírez 29 arb 47-0.2 0.4 -1.2
Eric Haase 25 – 9-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Dan Otero 33 FA-elig 61-0.3 1.1 -2.2
Jeff Beliveau 31 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.0 -1.2
Adam Plutko 26 pre-arb 17-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Nick Goody 26 arb 12-0.4 0.6 -1.8
Adam Cimber↔ SDP 27 pre-arb 28-0.4 0.2 -1.6
Rajai Davis 37 FA-elig 101-0.5 1.8 -3.6
Tyler Naquin 27 pre-arb 61-0.6 0.6 -2.8
Josh Tomlin 33 FA-elig 32-1.4 3.0 -7.7

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Shane Bieber2.8
Oliver Pérez1.0
Josh Donaldson0.5
Brad Hand0.5
Leonys Martin0.2
Evan Marshall0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Carlos Santana2.9
Austin Jackson1.9
Bryan Shaw1.5
Joe Smith0.8
Jay Bruce0.6
Michael Martinez0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$142.8M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Edwin Encarnación3512.085$18.7MFREE AGENT
Jason Kipnis316.069$13.7MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley317.131$11.5MFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller339.062$9.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Carrasco316.147$8.0MFREE AGENT
Yonder Alonso316.116$7.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Tomlin337.033$3.0MFREE AGENT
Zach McAllister307.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez3613.144$1.8MFREE AGENT
Rajai Davis3710.167$1.8MFREE AGENT
Marc Rzepczynski329.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Melky Cabrera3311.148$1.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Belisle3812.019$364kFREE AGENT
Adam Rosales357.163$100kFREE AGENT
Alexi Ogando346.032$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Corey Kluber325.074$10.7MFREE AGENT
Cody Allen295.076$10.6MFREE AGENT
Josh Donaldson325.158$7.1MFREE AGENT
Trevor Bauer273.158$6.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yan Gomes305.083$6.0MFREE AGENT
Lonnie Chisenhall295.158$5.6MFREE AGENT
José Ramírez253.074$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Guyer325.066$2.8MFREE AGENT
Brad Hand284.092$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Pérez293.083$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Otero334.124$1.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
George Kontos334.171$584kARB 3FREE AGENT
Neil Ramírez293.034$407kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leonys Martin304.161$125kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Barnes323.097$79kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Francisco Lindor242.113$623kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Naquin271.032$565kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Goody261.160$562kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Clevinger271.040$558kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradley Zimmer250.139$551kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Olson280.126$548kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik González261.007$548kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Greg Allen250.031$343kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Bieber230.000$284kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Marshall282.022$249kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Plutko260.028$240kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Cimber270.000$218kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yandy Díaz260.068$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Edwards301.141$88kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Haase250.000$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake311.094$50kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Beliveau312.033$41kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Taylor250.085$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía220.031$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Guardians 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'CLE',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});