RRosternomics
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Tigers DET

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President of baseball ops: Scott Harris · GM: Jeff Greenberg

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.59× league · TAB +8.3
+8.3TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+10.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)4th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-3.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
58%dead money %26th/30
0.531win %12th/30
36.1roster fWAR15th/30
+56surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$95Mpayroll $M25th/30

2024: made playoffs · 86–76. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFParker Meadows 82GMatt Vierling 57GWenceel Pérez 29G
LFRiley Greene 84GJustyn-Henry Malloy 22GAkil Baddoo 21G
RFWenceel Pérez 83GKerry Carpenter 45GMatt Vierling 36G
SSJavier Báez 80GZach McKinstry 48GTrey Sweeney 36G
2BColt Keith 133GAndy Ibáñez 44GZach McKinstry 18G
3BMatt Vierling 51GZach McKinstry 38GJace Jung 27G
1BSpencer Torkelson 90GBligh Madris 20GGio Urshela 18G
STARTERSTarik Skubal 6.0WARReese Olson 2.5WARTyler Holton 1.5WARCasey Mize 1.3WARBeau Brieske 0.8WAR
CJake Rogers 92GDillon Dingler 27G
DHJustyn-Henry Malloy 45GKerry Carpenter 35GRiley Greene 31G
BULLPEN★ Jason Foley 28svWill Vest 14hBrenan Hanifee 8hShelby Miller 5hSean Guenther 2hAlex Lange 1hBrant Hurter 1hMason Englert 0h
CJake Rogers 92 · Dillon Dingler 27
1BSpencer Torkelson 90 · Bligh Madris 20 · Gio Urshela 18
2BColt Keith 133 · Andy Ibáñez 44 · Zach McKinstry 18
3BMatt Vierling 51 · Zach McKinstry 38 · Jace Jung 27
SSJavier Báez 80 · Zach McKinstry 48 · Trey Sweeney 36
LFRiley Greene 84 · Justyn-Henry Malloy 22 · Akil Baddoo 21
CFParker Meadows 82 · Matt Vierling 57 · Wenceel Pérez 29
RFWenceel Pérez 83 · Kerry Carpenter 45 · Matt Vierling 36
DHJustyn-Henry Malloy 45 · Kerry Carpenter 35 · Riley Greene 31
SPTarik Skubal 6.0 · Reese Olson 2.5 · Tyler Holton 1.5 · Casey Mize 1.3 · Beau Brieske 0.8
BP★ Jason Foley 28 · Will Vest 14 · Brenan Hanifee 8 · Shelby Miller 5 · Sean Guenther 2 · Alex Lange 1 · Brant Hurter 1 · Mason Englert 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Tarik Skubal 27 arb 316.0 2.6 +22.2
Riley Greene 23 pre-arb 1373.9 0.8 +15.6
Jack Flaherty↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 182.5 9.0 +1.5
Reese Olson 24 pre-arb 222.5 0.8 +9.6
Kerry Carpenter 26 pre-arb 872.4 0.8 +9.2
Matt Vierling 27 arb 1442.3 0.8 +9.0
Parker Meadows 24 pre-arb 822.2 0.7 +8.2
Jake Rogers 29 arb 1022.1 1.7 +7.3
Colt Keith 22 pre-arb 1481.7 2.8 +4.4
Carson Kelly↔ TEX 29 FA-elig 601.6 2.3 +4.3
Tyler Holton 28 pre-arb 661.5 0.8 +5.5
Casey Mize 27 arb 221.3 0.8 +4.8
Will Vest 29 arb 691.2 0.8 +4.0
Wenceel Pérez 24 pre-arb 1121.0 0.7 +3.5
Zach McKinstry 29 arb 1180.9 0.8 +3.1
Brant Hurter 25 – 100.8 0.2 +3.0
Beau Brieske 26 pre-arb 460.8 0.7 +2.4
Andrew Chafin↔ TEX 34 FA-elig 410.8 3.1 +0.0
Andy Ibáñez 31 arb 990.7 0.8 +2.3
Mark Canha↔ SFG 35 FA-elig 930.6 8.6 -5.9
Brenan Hanifee 26 pre-arb 210.5 0.2 +1.9
Trey Sweeney 24 – 360.4 0.2 +1.5
Sean Guenther 28 pre-arb 170.4 0.2 +1.5
Bligh Madris 28 pre-arb 210.3 0.1 +1.2
Jason Foley 28 arb 690.3 0.8 +0.5
Matt Manning 26 arb 50.2 0.7 +0.3
Ty Madden 24 – 60.2 0.1 +0.8
Buddy Kennedy↔ PHI 25 pre-arb 60.2 0.3 +0.4
Spencer Torkelson 24 pre-arb 920.1 0.8 -0.4
Alex Lange 28 arb 210.1 0.8 -0.4
Jace Jung 23 – 340.1 0.2 +0.1
Jackson Jobe 21 – 20.0 0.0 +0.2
Kenta Maeda 36 FA-elig 290.0 14.0 -13.9
Ricky Vanasco↔ LAD 25 pre-arb 20.0 0.5 -0.4
Keider Montero 23 pre-arb 190.0 0.7 -0.7
Easton Lucas↔ OAK 27 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Mason Englert 24 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Dillon Dingler 25 – 27-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Joey Wentz↔ PIT 26 pre-arb 38-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Gio Urshela↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 92-0.1 1.1 -1.4
Shelby Miller 33 FA-elig 51-0.2 3.0 -3.7
Akil Baddoo 25 arb 31-0.3 1.6 -2.7
Ryan Vilade 25 arb 17-0.3 0.7 -2.1
Bryan Sammons 29 – 6-0.4 0.1 -1.6
Alex Faedo 28 pre-arb 37-0.4 0.7 -2.5
Justyn-Henry Malloy 24 pre-arb 71-0.5 0.7 -2.9
Ryan Kreidler 26 pre-arb 35-0.5 0.7 -3.0
Javier Báez 31 FA-elig 80-0.7 25.0 -28.0

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Jack Flaherty2.5
Colt Keith1.7
Casey Mize1.3
Wenceel Pérez1.0
Brant Hurter0.8
Andrew Chafin0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Eduardo Rodriguez3.1
Michael Lorenzen1.7
Matthew Boyd0.9
Jake Marisnick0.3
Chasen Shreve0.2
Tyler Alexander0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$94.7M
2025 guaranteed
$28.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Javier Báez318.089$25.0M$25.1M$24.0M$24.0MFREE AGENT
Kenta Maeda368.000$14.0MFREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty286.006$9.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Canha358.092$8.6MFREE AGENT
Andrew Chafin349.020$3.1MFREE AGENT
Shelby Miller3312.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Colt Keith220.000$2.8M$3.8M$4.3M$4.3M$5.3M$5.3M$10.0MCLUB
Gio Urshela329.000$1.1MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (4)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Tarik Skubal273.114$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carson Kelly295.161$2.3MCLUBFREE AGENT
Jake Rogers293.040$1.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Mize273.111$830kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (36)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Akil Baddoo252.119$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley Greene231.110$766kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Foley282.033$766kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Ibáñez311.170$766kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Vierling272.026$766kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Torkelson241.137$766kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McKinstry292.099$764kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kerry Carpenter261.057$761kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Vest292.100$761kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Lange282.112$761kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Holton281.045$758kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese Olson240.123$752kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Meadows240.042$747kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Faedo280.169$747kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Manning262.098$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wenceel Pérez240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justyn-Henry Malloy240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Kreidler260.051$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason Englert241.000$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Vilade250.016$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keider Montero230.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Beau Brieske261.166$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wentz260.166$617kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Vanasco250.000$450kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Buddy Kennedy250.096$317kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Easton Lucas270.026$277kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Dingler250.000$251kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brenan Hanifee260.012$235kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brant Hurter250.000$227kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Sweeney240.000$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jace Jung230.000$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Guenther281.064$163kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ty Madden240.000$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Sammons29–$115k
Bligh Madris280.073$107kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Jobe210.000$20kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Tigers 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'DET',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});