RRosternomics
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Tigers DET

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Scott Harris · GM: Jeff Greenberg

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.89× league · TAB +4.3
+4.3TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+6.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars9th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
34%dead money %20th/30
0.537win %11th/30
37.1roster fWAR11th/30
+10surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$138Mpayroll $M17th/30

2025: made playoffs · 87–75. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFParker Meadows 57GJavier Báez 53GWenceel Pérez 31G
LFRiley Greene 124GKerry Carpenter 24GZach McKinstry 15G
RFWenceel Pérez 81GKerry Carpenter 55GZach McKinstry 30G
SSTrey Sweeney 112GJavier Báez 62GZach McKinstry 40G
2BGleyber Torres 134GColt Keith 26GAndy Ibáñez 11G
3BZach McKinstry 85GAndy Ibáñez 68GColt Keith 37G
1BSpencer Torkelson 145GColt Keith 18GAndy Ibáñez 4G
STARTERSTarik Skubal 6.6WARJack Flaherty 2.5WARCasey Mize 2.4WARReese Olson 1.4WARKeider Montero 0.1WAR
CDillon Dingler 118GJake Rogers 41GTomás Nido 10G
DHColt Keith 51GKerry Carpenter 47GJahmai Jones 33G
BULLPEN★ Kyle Finnegan 24svTommy Kahnle 16hBrenan Hanifee 10hRafael Montero 8hBrant Hurter 5hChase Lee 4hPaul Sewald 4hWill Vest 3h
CDillon Dingler 118 · Jake Rogers 41 · Tomás Nido 10
1BSpencer Torkelson 145 · Colt Keith 18 · Andy Ibáñez 4
2BGleyber Torres 134 · Colt Keith 26 · Andy Ibáñez 11
3BZach McKinstry 85 · Andy Ibáñez 68 · Colt Keith 37
SSTrey Sweeney 112 · Javier Báez 62 · Zach McKinstry 40
LFRiley Greene 124 · Kerry Carpenter 24 · Zach McKinstry 15
CFParker Meadows 57 · Javier Báez 53 · Wenceel Pérez 31
RFWenceel Pérez 81 · Kerry Carpenter 55 · Zach McKinstry 30
DHColt Keith 51 · Kerry Carpenter 47 · Jahmai Jones 33
SPTarik Skubal 6.6 · Jack Flaherty 2.5 · Casey Mize 2.4 · Reese Olson 1.4 · Keider Montero 0.1
BP★ Kyle Finnegan 24 · Tommy Kahnle 16 · Brenan Hanifee 10 · Rafael Montero 8 · Brant Hurter 5 · Chase Lee 4 · Paul Sewald 4 · Will Vest 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2025 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Tarik Skubal 28 arb 316.6 10.2 +16.3
Dillon Dingler 26 pre-arb 1264.1 0.8 +15.6
Zach McKinstry 30 arb 1443.2 1.6 +11.0
Riley Greene 24 pre-arb 1572.9 0.8 +10.8
Gleyber Torres 28 FA-elig 1452.6 15.0 -4.7
Jack Flaherty 29 FA-elig 312.5 25.0 -14.9
Casey Mize 28 arb 282.4 2.3 +7.1
Spencer Torkelson 25 pre-arb 1552.3 0.8 +8.5
Will Vest 30 arb 641.8 1.4 +5.6
Wenceel Pérez 25 pre-arb 1001.7 0.8 +6.0
Colt Keith 23 pre-arb 1371.6 3.8 +2.7
Kerry Carpenter 27 pre-arb 1301.5 0.8 +5.2
Javier Báez 32 FA-elig 1261.4 25.1 -19.4
Reese Olson 25 pre-arb 131.4 0.8 +4.7
Jahmai Jones 27 pre-arb 721.1 0.5 +3.8
Kyle Finnegan↔ WSN 33 arb 160.7 0.4 +2.2
Brenan Hanifee 27 pre-arb 540.6 0.7 +1.9
Brant Hurter 26 pre-arb 430.6 0.6 +1.8
Andy Ibáñez 32 pre-arb 910.4 1.0 +0.5
Jake Rogers 30 arb 490.3 2.6 -1.3
Parker Meadows 25 pre-arb 580.2 0.8 +0.1
Brewer Hicklen 29 – 10.2 0.1 +0.6
Carlos Hernández↔ CLE 28 – 110.2 0.2 +0.5
Dietrich Enns↔ BAL 34 – 70.2 0.1 +0.5
Troy Melton 24 – 160.1 0.2 +0.3
Tomás Nido 31 arb 110.1 0.2 +0.3
Sean Guenther 29 pre-arb 90.1 0.5 +0.0
Keider Montero 24 pre-arb 200.1 0.4 +0.1
Jackson Jobe 22 pre-arb 100.1 0.8 -0.5
Matt Gage↔ SFG 32 – 60.1 0.1 +0.2
Charlie Morton↔ ATL 41 – 90.0 3.5 -3.4
Akil Baddoo 26 pre-arb 70.0 0.1 -0.0
Rafael Montero↔ ATL 34 FA-elig 200.0 2.9 -2.8
Justyn-Henry Malloy 25 pre-arb 520.0 0.4 -0.4
Alex Lange 29 pre-arb 10.0 0.6 -0.6
Luke Jackson↔ SEA 33 – 3-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Dylan Smith 25 – 7-0.0 0.1 -0.1
José Urquidy 30 arb 2-0.0 1.0 -1.0
Tanner Rainey↔ PIT 32 arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Bailey Horn 27 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Matt Vierling 28 arb 31-0.0 3.0 -3.1
Tyler Owens 24 – 3-0.0 0.1 -0.2
John Brebbia↔ ATL 35 – 19-0.1 2.3 -2.6
Geoff Hartlieb↔ NYY 31 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Paul Sewald↔ CLE 35 FA-elig 4-0.1 0.7 -1.1
Chase Lee 26 – 32-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Kenta Maeda 37 – 7-0.1 10.0 -10.4
Drew Sommers 24 – 4-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Codi Heuer↔ TEX 28 – 2-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Manuel Margot 30 FA-elig 6-0.1 1.3 -1.9
Tyler Holton 29 pre-arb 70-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Tommy Kahnle 35 FA-elig 66-0.2 7.8 -8.7
Sawyer Gipson-Long 27 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.7 -1.8
Jace Jung 24 pre-arb 21-0.3 0.1 -1.3
Ryan Kreidler 27 – 17-0.4 0.2 -1.9
Beau Brieske 27 pre-arb 22-0.5 0.5 -2.4
Chris Paddack↔ MIN 29 FA-elig 12-0.5 2.1 -4.0
Trey Sweeney 25 pre-arb 118-0.9 0.7 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2024)

PlayerfWAR
Gleyber Torres2.6
Jahmai Jones1.1
Kyle Finnegan0.7
Brewer Hicklen0.2
Carlos Hernández0.2
Dietrich Enns0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2024)

Player2024 fWAR
Carson Kelly1.6
Andrew Chafin0.8
Mark Canha0.6
Bligh Madris0.3
Buddy Kennedy0.2
Easton Lucas-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2025 payroll
$138.3M
2026 guaranteed
$48.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2025, 2025–2031. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2025; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Javier Báez329.089$25.1M$24.0M$24.0MFREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty297.006$25.0M$20.0MPLAYERFREE AGENT
Gleyber Torres286.162$15.0MFREE AGENT
Kenta Maeda379.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Tommy Kahnle359.131$7.8MFREE AGENT
Colt Keith231.000$3.8M$4.3M$4.3M$5.3M$5.3M$10.0MCLUB$13.0MCLUB
Charlie Morton4116.010$3.5MFREE AGENT
Rafael Montero348.095$2.9MFREE AGENT
John Brebbia357.078$2.3MFREE AGENT
Chris Paddack296.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Manuel Margot308.012$1.3MFREE AGENT
Paul Sewald356.072$745kFREE AGENT
Luke Jackson338.019$71kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Tarik Skubal284.114$10.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Vierling283.026$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Rogers304.040$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Mize284.111$2.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McKinstry303.099$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Vest303.100$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Urquidy305.049$1.0MFREE AGENT
Kyle Finnegan335.000$390kFREE AGENT
Tomás Nido315.121$223kFREE AGENT
Carlos Hernández283.099$154kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Codi Heuer283.010$135kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Rainey325.127$35kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2025202620272028202920302031
Andy Ibáñez322.170$1.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Riley Greene242.110$812kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Holton292.047$798kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kerry Carpenter272.057$797kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reese Olson251.123$787kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Torkelson252.076$786kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Meadows250.169$782kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wenceel Pérez251.000$771kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dillon Dingler260.063$763kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Jobe220.006$761kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sawyer Gipson-Long271.022$724kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brenan Hanifee270.072$696kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Sweeney250.045$694kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brant Hurter260.057$647kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Lange292.169$622kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Guenther291.106$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Beau Brieske272.134$518kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jahmai Jones271.033$501kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justyn-Henry Malloy250.106$433kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Lee260.000$388kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keider Montero240.091$376kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Troy Melton240.000$237kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Kreidler270.122$206kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bailey Horn270.060$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jace Jung240.045$139kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Sommers240.000$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Akil Baddoo262.169$111kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brewer Hicklen290.038$93kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Owens24–$90k
Dylan Smith250.000$82kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dietrich Enns340.059$74kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Gage320.063$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Geoff Hartlieb311.158$21kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Tigers 2025; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'DET',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});