RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Jeff Luhnow

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.84× league · TAB -6.4
-6.4TAB — talent above budget
-11.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
2.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-3.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
49%dead money %15th/30
0.483win %15th/30
13.0roster fWAR15th/30
-122surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$217Mpayroll $M1st/30

2020: made playoffs · 29–31. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFGeorge Springer 42GMyles Straw 27G
LFKyle Tucker 41GMichael Brantley 19GGarrett Stubbs 3G
RFJosh Reddick 50GGeorge Springer 9GKyle Tucker 7G
SSCarlos Correa 57GJack Mayfield 8GMyles Straw 1G
2BJose Altuve 48GAledmys Díaz 10GJack Mayfield 5G
3BAlex Bregman 42GAbraham Toro 14GJack Mayfield 8G
1BYuli Gurriel 55GAbraham Toro 4GTaylor Jones 3G
STARTERSZack Greinke 2.2WARFramber Valdez 2.0WARLance McCullers Jr. 1.1WARCristian Javier 0.5WARJosé Urquidy 0.3WAR
CMartín Maldonado 47GDustin Garneau 17GGarrett Stubbs 8G
DHMichael Brantley 26GAbraham Toro 11GKyle Tucker 10G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Pressly 12svBrooks Raley 6hBlake Taylor 5hEnoli Paredes 4hJosh James 4hCy Sneed 3hAndre Scrubb 2hHumberto Castellanos 0h
CMartín Maldonado 47 · Dustin Garneau 17 · Garrett Stubbs 8
1BYuli Gurriel 55 · Abraham Toro 4 · Taylor Jones 3
2BJose Altuve 48 · Aledmys Díaz 10 · Jack Mayfield 5
3BAlex Bregman 42 · Abraham Toro 14 · Jack Mayfield 8
SSCarlos Correa 57 · Jack Mayfield 8 · Myles Straw 1
LFKyle Tucker 41 · Michael Brantley 19 · Garrett Stubbs 3
CFGeorge Springer 42 · Myles Straw 27
RFJosh Reddick 50 · George Springer 9 · Kyle Tucker 7
DHMichael Brantley 26 · Abraham Toro 11 · Kyle Tucker 10
SPZack Greinke 2.2 · Framber Valdez 2.0 · Lance McCullers Jr. 1.1 · Cristian Javier 0.5 · José Urquidy 0.3
BP★ Ryan Pressly 12 · Brooks Raley 6 · Blake Taylor 5 · Enoli Paredes 4 · Josh James 4 · Cy Sneed 3 · Andre Scrubb 2 · Humberto Castellanos 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Zack Greinke 36 FA-elig 122.2 35.0 -19.2
Framber Valdez 26 pre-arb 112.0 0.2 +14.5
George Springer 30 FA-elig 512.0 21.0 -6.6
Kyle Tucker 23 pre-arb 581.8 0.2 +13.1
Alex Bregman 26 arb 421.3 13.0 -3.8
Carlos Correa 25 arb 581.2 8.0 +0.4
Michael Brantley 33 FA-elig 461.1 16.0 -7.6
Lance McCullers Jr. 26 arb 111.1 4.1 +4.2
Martín Maldonado 33 FA-elig 470.9 3.5 +2.7
Ryan Pressly 31 FA-elig 230.7 8.8 -3.8
Cristian Javier 23 – 120.5 0.2 +3.3
Enoli Paredes 24 – 220.3 0.2 +2.3
José Urquidy 25 pre-arb 50.3 0.2 +2.2
Brooks Raley↔ CIN 32 pre-arb 170.2 0.1 +1.5
Roberto Osuna 25 arb 40.2 10.0 -8.7
Andre Scrubb 25 – 200.1 0.2 +0.6
Luis Garcia 23 – 50.1 0.1 +0.7
Cionel Pérez 24 pre-arb 70.1 0.2 +0.3
Aledmys Díaz 29 arb 170.1 2.6 -2.0
Yordan Alvarez 23 pre-arb 20.1 0.2 +0.3
Blake Taylor 24 – 220.1 0.6 -0.2
Brad Peacock 32 FA-elig 30.0 3.9 -3.6
Jack Mayfield 29 pre-arb 210.0 0.2 -0.0
Justin Verlander 37 FA-elig 1-0.0 33.0 -33.1
Cy Sneed 27 pre-arb 18-0.0 0.2 -0.4
Chris Devenski 29 arb 4-0.0 2.0 -2.2
Brandon Bailey 25 – 5-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Chase De Jong 26 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.3
Humberto Castellanos 22 – 8-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Carlos Sanabria 23 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.6
Joe Biagini 30 arb 4-0.1 1.0 -1.6
Jose Altuve 30 FA-elig 48-0.1 29.0 -29.7
Yuli Gurriel 36 arb 57-0.1 8.4 -9.1
Josh Reddick 33 FA-elig 56-0.1 13.0 -14.0
Bryan Abreu 23 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.0 -1.1
Garrett Stubbs 27 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.1 -1.2
Taylor Jones 26 – 7-0.2 0.1 -1.6
Dustin Garneau 32 arb 17-0.3 0.7 -2.5
Myles Straw 25 pre-arb 33-0.3 0.2 -2.1
Josh James 27 pre-arb 13-0.3 0.2 -2.5
Nivaldo Rodriguez 23 – 5-0.3 0.1 -2.6
Abraham Toro 23 pre-arb 33-0.4 0.2 -3.5
Brandon Bielak 24 – 12-0.5 0.2 -3.8

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Lance McCullers Jr.1.1
Cristian Javier0.5
Enoli Paredes0.3
Brooks Raley0.2
Andre Scrubb0.1
Luis Garcia0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Gerrit Cole7.4
Robinson Chirinos2.5
Wade Miley2.0
Will Harris1.1
Jake Marisnick1.0
Tony Kemp0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$217.2M
2021 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Zack Greinke3615.057$35.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Verlander3714.002$33.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Altuve308.072$29.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley339.131$16.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Reddick339.050$13.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly316.039$8.8MFREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado337.156$3.5MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
George Springer305.166$21.0MFREE AGENT
Alex Bregman263.070$13.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roberto Osuna254.097$10.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Yuli Gurriel364.000$8.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Correa254.119$8.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.264.140$4.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Peacock325.165$3.9MFREE AGENT
Aledmys Díaz293.100$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Devenski294.000$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Biagini304.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase De Jong263.000$25kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Dustin Garneau321.058$650kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Taylor240.000$564kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cionel Pérez240.107$234kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yordan Alvarez230.113$225kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh James271.030$219kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Framber Valdez260.163$216kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Urquidy250.049$213kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Toro230.039$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Myles Straw250.112$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Tucker230.079$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Javier230.000$211kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cy Sneed270.067$210kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enoli Paredes240.000$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Bielak240.000$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andre Scrubb250.000$193kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Mayfield290.044$181kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Stubbs270.060$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Raley320.045$124kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Humberto Castellanos220.000$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Garcia230.000$93kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Bailey250.000$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nivaldo Rodriguez230.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Jones260.000$53kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Abreu230.025$47kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Sanabria23–$34k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

'; return; } const f=+document.getElementById('yfrom').value, t=+document.getElementById('yto').value, w=+document.getElementById('win').value; document.getElementById('yflab').textContent=f; document.getElementById('ytlab').textContent=t; document.getElementById('winlab').textContent = w===1?'raw':(w+'-yr'); const dark=document.documentElement.getAttribute('data-theme')==='dark'; const ink=dark?'#cdd4dc':'#1d2630', grid=dark?'#2c313a':'#d6dbe2', refc=dark?'#5a636d':'#9aa3ad', dirc=dark?'#ffffff':'#1d2630'; const col=contrastColor(TEAMCOL,dark); function sm(a,w){const h=(w-1)/2,o=[];for(let i=0;id[0]>=f&&d[0]<=t); if(raw.length<2){ Plotly.purge('orbit'); orbEl.innerHTML='

Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});