RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: James Click

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 1.32× league · TAB +12.8
+12.8TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+9.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-2.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
11%dead money %2nd/30
0.586win %4th/30
50.4roster fWAR3rd/30
-4surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$168Mpayroll $M8th/30

2021: won pennant · 95–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJake Meyers 39GChas McCormick 33GJose Siri 5G
LFMichael Brantley 84GChas McCormick 51GYordan Alvarez 41G
RFKyle Tucker 133GChas McCormick 22GJose Siri 9G
SSCarlos Correa 148GRobel García 13GAledmys Díaz 9G
2BJose Altuve 144GMarwin Gonzalez 39GAledmys Díaz 13G
3BAlex Bregman 90GAledmys Díaz 30GRobel García 15G
1BYuli Gurriel 142GMarwin Gonzalez 17GTaylor Jones 14G
STARTERSLance McCullers Jr. 3.1WARLuis Garcia 3.0WARFramber Valdez 1.8WARJosé Urquidy 1.8WARZack Greinke 1.2WAR
CMartín Maldonado 123GJason Castro 52GGarrett Stubbs 14G
DHYordan Alvarez 98GMichael Brantley 30GTaylor Jones 10G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Pressly 26svRyne Stanek 21hKendall Graveman 11hBrooks Raley 10hBlake Taylor 5hPhil Maton 5hYimi García 4hRafael Montero 4h
CMartín Maldonado 123 · Jason Castro 52 · Garrett Stubbs 14
1BYuli Gurriel 142 · Marwin Gonzalez 17 · Taylor Jones 14
2BJose Altuve 144 · Marwin Gonzalez 39 · Aledmys Díaz 13
3BAlex Bregman 90 · Aledmys Díaz 30 · Robel García 15
SSCarlos Correa 148 · Robel García 13 · Aledmys Díaz 9
LFMichael Brantley 84 · Chas McCormick 51 · Yordan Alvarez 41
CFJake Meyers 39 · Chas McCormick 33 · Jose Siri 5
RFKyle Tucker 133 · Chas McCormick 22 · Jose Siri 9
DHYordan Alvarez 98 · Michael Brantley 30 · Taylor Jones 10
SPLance McCullers Jr. 3.1 · Luis Garcia 3.0 · Framber Valdez 1.8 · José Urquidy 1.8 · Zack Greinke 1.2
BP★ Ryan Pressly 26 · Ryne Stanek 21 · Kendall Graveman 11 · Brooks Raley 10 · Blake Taylor 5 · Phil Maton 5 · Yimi García 4 · Rafael Montero 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carlos Correa 26 FA-elig 1486.3 11.7 +8.7
Jose Altuve 31 FA-elig 1465.3 29.0 -11.9
Kyle Tucker 24 pre-arb 1404.9 0.6 +15.4
Yordan Alvarez 24 pre-arb 1443.5 0.6 +10.7
Yuli Gurriel 37 arb 1433.2 6.5 +3.9
Lance McCullers Jr. 27 FA-elig 303.1 6.5 +3.7
Luis Garcia 24 pre-arb 303.0 0.6 +9.2
Ryan Pressly 32 FA-elig 642.4 8.8 -0.9
Michael Brantley 34 FA-elig 1212.2 16.0 -9.0
Alex Bregman 27 arb 912.1 13.0 -6.0
Chas McCormick 26 – 1082.1 0.6 +6.2
José Urquidy 26 pre-arb 201.8 0.6 +5.2
Framber Valdez 27 pre-arb 221.8 0.6 +5.1
Aledmys Díaz 30 arb 841.5 3.0 +1.8
Jason Castro 34 FA-elig 661.2 3.5 +0.4
Zack Greinke 37 FA-elig 301.2 35.0 -31.1
Jake Meyers 25 – 491.1 0.2 +3.4
Jake Odorizzi 31 FA-elig 241.1 9.0 -5.6
Myles Straw↔ CLE 26 – 981.0 0.2 +3.1
Brooks Raley 33 FA-elig 580.8 2.0 +0.5
Jose Siri 25 – 210.6 0.1 +1.9
Cristian Javier 24 pre-arb 360.6 0.6 +1.4
Ryne Stanek 29 arb 720.4 1.1 +0.2
Martín Maldonado 34 FA-elig 1250.3 3.5 -2.5
Yimi García↔ MIA 30 FA-elig 230.3 0.7 +0.2
Kendall Graveman↔ SEA 30 FA-elig 230.3 0.5 +0.3
Abraham Toro↔ SEA 24 – 350.2 0.1 +0.7
Brandon Bielak 25 pre-arb 280.2 0.5 +0.3
Rafael Montero↔ SEA 30 FA-elig 40.1 0.2 +0.2
Peter Solomon 24 – 60.1 0.1 +0.3
Phil Maton↔ CLE 28 arb 270.1 0.4 -0.1
Bryan Abreu 24 pre-arb 310.1 0.4 -0.2
Blake Taylor 25 pre-arb 510.1 0.6 -0.4
Jacob Wilson↔ OAK 30 – 60.0 0.0 +0.1
Alex De Goti 26 – 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Josh James 28 pre-arb 50.0 0.4 -0.3
Seth Martinez 26 – 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Pedro Báez 33 FA-elig 40.0 4.8 -4.7
Tyler Ivey 25 – 1-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Ralph Garza Jr.↔ MIN 27 – 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Ronnie Dawson 26 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Taylor Jones 27 pre-arb 35-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Ryan Hartman 27 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Joe Smith↔ SEA 37 FA-elig 27-0.1 2.2 -2.5
Kent Emanuel 29 – 10-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Marwin Gonzalez↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 14-0.1 0.5 -0.9
Enoli Paredes 25 pre-arb 12-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Garrett Stubbs 28 pre-arb 18-0.2 0.2 -0.7
Nivaldo Rodriguez 24 – 4-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Austin Pruitt↔ MIA 31 – 2-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Andre Scrubb 26 pre-arb 18-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Robel García 28 pre-arb 47-1.0 0.4 -3.8

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Chas McCormick2.1
Jason Castro1.2
Jake Meyers1.1
Jake Odorizzi1.1
Jose Siri0.6
Ryne Stanek0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
George Springer2.0
Roberto Osuna0.2
Cionel Pérez0.1
Brad Peacock0.0
Jack Mayfield0.0
Cy Sneed-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$167.5M
2022 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Zack Greinke3716.057$35.0MFREE AGENT
Jose Altuve319.072$29.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley3410.131$16.0MFREE AGENT
Jake Odorizzi317.042$9.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly327.039$8.8MFREE AGENT
Pedro Báez336.059$4.8MFREE AGENT
Jason Castro3410.104$3.5MFREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado348.156$3.5MFREE AGENT
Joe Smith3712.091$2.2MFREE AGENT
Marwin Gonzalez328.133$462kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Alex Bregman274.070$13.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Correa265.119$11.7MFREE AGENT
Yuli Gurriel375.000$6.5MFREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.275.140$6.5MFREE AGENT
Aledmys Díaz304.100$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek293.038$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yimi García305.149$705kFREE AGENT
Kendall Graveman305.078$542kFREE AGENT
Phil Maton283.047$405kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rafael Montero304.138$205kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (32)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Brooks Raley331.045$2.0MCLUBPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Framber Valdez271.163$637kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Tucker241.079$624kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yordan Alvarez241.113$609kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Urquidy261.049$604kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Taylor251.000$599kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Javier241.000$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Garcia241.000$580kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chas McCormick260.000$570kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kent Emanuel290.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enoli Paredes251.000$497kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Bielak251.000$467kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andre Scrubb261.000$459kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh James282.030$447kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Abreu240.064$407kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robel García280.061$393kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Jones270.042$304kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Myles Straw261.112$238kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Meyers250.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Ivey25–$193k
Garrett Stubbs281.024$184kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham Toro241.039$137kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Pruitt312.125$132kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nivaldo Rodriguez240.056$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Siri250.000$92kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Solomon240.000$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ralph Garza Jr.270.000$51kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Wilson30–$32k
Alex De Goti26–$18k
Seth Martinez260.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronnie Dawson260.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Hartman27–$3k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});