RRosternomics
𝕏

Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Dana Brown

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 7 in this regime · payroll 1.56× league · TAB +1.0
+1.0TAB — talent above budget17th/30
+1.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)16th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars6th/30
-6.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag22nd/30
25%dead money %9th/30
0.547win %11th/30
40.3roster fWAR11th/30
-84surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$252Mpayroll $M5th/30

2024: made playoffs · 88–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJake Meyers 144GMauricio Dubón 22GChas McCormick 15G
LFMauricio Dubón 67GYordan Alvarez 53GChas McCormick 53G
RFJason Heyward 76GKyle Tucker 70GChas McCormick 40G
SSJeremy Peña 157GMauricio Dubón 5GGrae Kessinger 3G
2BJose Altuve 147GMauricio Dubón 22GGrae Kessinger 6G
3BAlex Bregman 142GShay Whitcomb 14GMauricio Dubón 10G
1BJon Singleton 94GJosé Abreu 35GMauricio Dubón 20G
STARTERSFramber Valdez 3.7WARHunter Brown 3.2WARRonel Blanco 2.2WARSpencer Arrighetti 1.7WARYusei Kikuchi 1.4WAR
CYainer Diaz 102GVictor Caratini 58GCésar Salazar 10G
DHYordan Alvarez 94GYainer Diaz 37GJon Singleton 11G
BULLPEN★ Josh Hader 34svBryan Abreu 38hRyan Pressly 25hCaleb Ferguson 11hRafael Montero 10hTayler Scott 9hHéctor Neris 7hSeth Martinez 3h
CYainer Diaz 102 · Victor Caratini 58 · César Salazar 10
1BJon Singleton 94 · José Abreu 35 · Mauricio Dubón 20
2BJose Altuve 147 · Mauricio Dubón 22 · Grae Kessinger 6
3BAlex Bregman 142 · Shay Whitcomb 14 · Mauricio Dubón 10
SSJeremy Peña 157 · Mauricio Dubón 5 · Grae Kessinger 3
LFMauricio Dubón 67 · Yordan Alvarez 53 · Chas McCormick 53
CFJake Meyers 144 · Mauricio Dubón 22 · Chas McCormick 15
RFJason Heyward 76 · Kyle Tucker 70 · Chas McCormick 40
DHYordan Alvarez 94 · Yainer Diaz 37 · Jon Singleton 11
SPFramber Valdez 3.7 · Hunter Brown 3.2 · Ronel Blanco 2.2 · Spencer Arrighetti 1.7 · Yusei Kikuchi 1.4
BP★ Josh Hader 34 · Bryan Abreu 38 · Ryan Pressly 25 · Caleb Ferguson 11 · Rafael Montero 10 · Tayler Scott 9 · Héctor Neris 7 · Seth Martinez 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2024 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yordan Alvarez 27 arb 1475.2 10.8 +10.9
Kyle Tucker 27 FA-elig 784.2 12.0 +5.5
Alex Bregman 30 FA-elig 1454.2 30.5 -13.1
Jose Altuve 34 FA-elig 1533.9 29.0 -12.9
Framber Valdez 30 FA-elig 283.7 12.1 +3.1
Hunter Brown 25 pre-arb 313.2 0.8 +12.4
Yainer Diaz 25 pre-arb 1483.0 0.8 +11.5
Jeremy Peña 26 pre-arb 1572.7 0.8 +10.7
Ronel Blanco 30 pre-arb 302.2 0.7 +8.4
Jake Meyers 28 arb 1482.0 0.8 +7.4
Victor Caratini 30 FA-elig 871.9 6.0 +1.9
Spencer Arrighetti 24 pre-arb 291.7 0.7 +6.2
Yusei Kikuchi↔ TOR 33 arb 101.4 3.1 +2.8
Mauricio Dubón 29 arb 1371.1 3.5 +1.1
Josh Hader 30 FA-elig 710.9 19.0 -15.0
Bryan Abreu 27 arb 780.9 1.8 +1.9
Ryan Pressly 35 FA-elig 590.9 14.0 -10.4
Justin Verlander 41 FA-elig 170.7 43.3 -40.5
César Salazar 28 pre-arb 120.4 0.7 +1.0
Bryan King 27 – 280.4 0.3 +1.4
Jason Heyward↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 240.3 2.5 -1.1
Joey Loperfido↔ TOR 25 pre-arb 380.3 0.3 +1.1
Shawn Dubin 28 pre-arb 310.3 0.7 +0.6
Caleb Ferguson↔ NYY 27 FA-elig 200.3 0.8 +0.4
Cristian Javier 27 arb 70.3 7.4 -6.3
Tayler Scott 32 arb 620.2 0.8 +0.0
Ben Gamel↔ NYM 32 FA-elig 200.1 0.2 +0.2
Luis Contreras 28 – 50.1 0.1 +0.3
Forrest Whitley 26 pre-arb 30.0 0.7 -0.7
Joel Kuhnel↔ TBR 29 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Miguel Díaz 29 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Dylan Coleman 27 arb 10.0 0.7 -0.7
Wander Suero 32 arb 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Jacob Amaya↔ CHW 25 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Alex Speas 26 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.7 -0.9
J.P. France 29 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.8 -1.0
Héctor Neris↔ CHC 35 FA-elig 16-0.1 2.3 -2.7
Aledmys Díaz↔ OAK 33 FA-elig 2-0.1 1.1 -1.5
Parker Mushinski 28 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Jon Singleton 32 FA-elig 119-0.1 0.8 -1.3
Blair Henley 27 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.7 -1.2
Nick Hernandez 29 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.7 -1.3
Seth Martinez 29 arb 44-0.2 0.8 -1.4
Cooper Hummel 29 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.7 -1.4
Brandon Bielak↔ OAK 28 – 10-0.2 0.1 -0.8
Trey Cabbage 27 pre-arb 45-0.2 0.7 -1.5
Kaleb Ort 32 arb 22-0.2 0.7 -1.6
Chas McCormick 29 arb 94-0.2 2.9 -3.8
Zach Dezenzo 24 – 19-0.2 0.2 -1.2
Jake Bloss 23 – 3-0.3 0.2 -1.3
Grae Kessinger 26 pre-arb 23-0.4 0.7 -2.3
Shay Whitcomb 25 – 20-0.4 0.2 -1.8
Pedro León 26 pre-arb 7-0.5 0.1 -2.0
Rafael Montero 33 FA-elig 41-0.9 11.5 -15.2
José Abreu 37 FA-elig 35-1.5 19.5 -25.8

Key additions (new vs 2023)

PlayerfWAR
Victor Caratini1.9
Spencer Arrighetti1.7
Yusei Kikuchi1.4
Josh Hader0.9
Bryan King0.4
Jason Heyward0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2023)

Player2023 fWAR
Luis Garcia0.7
Phil Maton0.6
Michael Brantley0.1
Ryne Stanek0.1
Matt Gage0.0
Rylan Bannon-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2024 payroll
$251.5M
2025 guaranteed
$45.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2024, 2024–2030. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2024; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Justin Verlander4118.002$43.3MFREE AGENT
Alex Bregman307.070$30.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Altuve3412.072$29.0MFREE AGENT
José Abreu3710.000$19.5MFREE AGENT
Josh Hader306.115$19.0M$19.1M$19.0M$19.0M$19.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly3510.039$14.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Montero337.138$11.5MFREE AGENT
Yordan Alvarez274.113$10.8M$15.8M$26.8M$26.8M$26.8MFREE AGENT
Cristian Javier274.000$7.4M$10.4M$21.4M$21.4MFREE AGENT
Victor Caratini306.051$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Heyward3414.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Héctor Neris3510.000$2.3MFREE AGENT
Aledmys Díaz338.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Ben Gamel326.056$183kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Framber Valdez304.163$12.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Tucker274.079$12.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Dubón293.162$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yusei Kikuchi335.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Chas McCormick293.000$2.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Abreu273.022$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Ferguson275.093$774kFREE AGENT
Dylan Coleman273.000$740kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Díaz293.132$33kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wander Suero323.144$11kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2024202520262027202820292030
Jon Singleton321.069$850kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Scott321.015$790kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Peña262.000$784kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Brown251.035$774kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yainer Diaz251.035$769kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. France290.149$768kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Meyers282.044$767kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Martinez291.108$754kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronel Blanco300.101$750kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Mushinski281.016$747kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grae Kessinger260.119$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Dubin280.015$742kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Speas260.007$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Hummel290.156$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Arrighetti240.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blair Henley270.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Cabbage270.056$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Hernandez290.021$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Forrest Whitley260.000$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kaleb Ort321.040$740kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Salazar280.080$740kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Loperfido250.000$347kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan King270.000$346kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Dezenzo240.000$219kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shay Whitcomb250.000$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Bloss230.000$154kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro León261.021$88kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Contreras280.000$76kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Bielak282.110$63kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Amaya250.010$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Kuhnel291.097$10kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2024; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});