RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: Dana Brown

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 1.27× league · TAB +5.6
+5.6TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+5.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
32%dead money %14th/30
0.556win %6th/30
42.6roster fWAR11th/30
-25surplus $M (value vs cost)18th/30
$194Mpayroll $M10th/30

2023: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJake Meyers 105GChas McCormick 55GMauricio Dubón 29G
LFCorey Julks 69GChas McCormick 59GYordan Alvarez 40G
RFKyle Tucker 153GChas McCormick 24GMauricio Dubón 2G
SSJeremy Peña 150GMauricio Dubón 9GGrae Kessinger 7G
2BJose Altuve 87GMauricio Dubón 79GDavid Hensley 9G
3BAlex Bregman 160GGrae Kessinger 7GDavid Hensley 1G
1BJosé Abreu 134GJon Singleton 19GYainer Diaz 8G
STARTERSFramber Valdez 4.4WARCristian Javier 2.0WARHunter Brown 1.8WARJustin Verlander 1.5WARJ.P. France 1.3WAR
CMartín Maldonado 116GYainer Diaz 60GCésar Salazar 9G
DHYordan Alvarez 73GYainer Diaz 38GCorey Julks 19G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Pressly 31svHéctor Neris 31hBryan Abreu 24hKendall Graveman 13hPhil Maton 10hRafael Montero 10hRyne Stanek 3hSeth Martinez 2h
CMartín Maldonado 116 · Yainer Diaz 60 · César Salazar 9
1BJosé Abreu 134 · Jon Singleton 19 · Yainer Diaz 8
2BJose Altuve 87 · Mauricio Dubón 79 · David Hensley 9
3BAlex Bregman 160 · Grae Kessinger 7 · David Hensley 1
SSJeremy Peña 150 · Mauricio Dubón 9 · Grae Kessinger 7
LFCorey Julks 69 · Chas McCormick 59 · Yordan Alvarez 40
CFJake Meyers 105 · Chas McCormick 55 · Mauricio Dubón 29
RFKyle Tucker 153 · Chas McCormick 24 · Mauricio Dubón 2
DHYordan Alvarez 73 · Yainer Diaz 38 · Corey Julks 19
SPFramber Valdez 4.4 · Cristian Javier 2.0 · Hunter Brown 1.8 · Justin Verlander 1.5 · J.P. France 1.3
BP★ Ryan Pressly 31 · Héctor Neris 31 · Bryan Abreu 24 · Kendall Graveman 13 · Phil Maton 10 · Rafael Montero 10 · Ryne Stanek 3 · Seth Martinez 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kyle Tucker 26 arb 1574.9 5.0 +14.5
Framber Valdez 29 arb 314.4 6.8 +10.8
Alex Bregman 29 FA-elig 1614.4 30.5 -13.1
Yordan Alvarez 26 arb 1144.3 7.8 +9.2
Jose Altuve 33 FA-elig 904.1 29.0 -12.9
Chas McCormick 28 pre-arb 1153.3 0.8 +12.2
Jeremy Peña 25 pre-arb 1502.7 0.8 +10.0
Yainer Diaz 24 pre-arb 1042.4 0.7 +8.9
Cristian Javier 26 arb 312.0 3.4 +4.6
Hunter Brown 24 pre-arb 311.8 0.7 +6.6
Mauricio Dubón 28 arb 1321.8 1.4 +5.7
Bryan Abreu 26 arb 721.5 0.7 +5.3
Justin Verlander↔ NYM 40 FA-elig 111.5 17.7 -11.8
J.P. France 28 – 241.3 0.6 +4.7
Ryan Pressly 34 FA-elig 651.1 14.0 -9.6
Jake Meyers 27 pre-arb 1121.1 0.7 +3.5
Héctor Neris 34 FA-elig 710.9 8.0 -4.5
Luis Garcia 26 arb 60.7 0.8 +2.0
Phil Maton 30 FA-elig 680.6 2.5 -0.1
Corey Julks 27 – 930.4 0.5 +1.1
José Urquidy 28 arb 160.2 3.0 -2.2
Bennett Sousa↔ MIL 28 pre-arb 50.2 0.2 +0.5
Grae Kessinger 25 – 260.2 0.5 +0.1
Brandon Bielak 27 pre-arb 150.2 0.3 +0.3
Michael Brantley 36 FA-elig 150.1 12.0 -11.4
Rafael Montero 32 FA-elig 680.1 11.5 -11.0
Seth Martinez 28 pre-arb 350.1 0.7 -0.2
Shawn Dubin 27 – 30.1 0.1 +0.3
Ryne Stanek 31 FA-elig 550.1 3.6 -3.3
Matt Gage 30 pre-arb 50.0 0.8 -0.7
Kendall Graveman↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 23-0.1 2.7 -3.0
Joel Kuhnel↔ CIN 28 arb 7-0.1 0.6 -1.0
Jon Singleton↔ MIL 31 pre-arb 25-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Rylan Bannon 27 pre-arb 2-0.1 0.1 -0.7
César Salazar 27 – 13-0.1 0.3 -0.9
Bligh Madris 27 pre-arb 12-0.3 0.1 -1.5
Parker Mushinski 27 pre-arb 14-0.3 0.4 -1.8
Ronel Blanco 29 pre-arb 17-0.4 0.7 -2.1
José Abreu 36 FA-elig 141-0.5 19.5 -21.5
David Hensley 27 pre-arb 30-0.8 0.7 -3.9
Martín Maldonado 36 FA-elig 117-1.0 4.0 -7.8

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
J.P. France1.3
Corey Julks0.4
Bennett Sousa0.2
Grae Kessinger0.2
Shawn Dubin0.1
Matt Gage0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Jake Odorizzi1.2
Aledmys Díaz0.8
Jose Siri0.6
Will Smith0.3
Christian Vázquez0.2
Joe Perez-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$194.3M
2024 guaranteed
$18.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Alex Bregman296.070$30.5MFREE AGENT
Jose Altuve3311.072$29.0MFREE AGENT
José Abreu369.000$19.5MFREE AGENT
Justin Verlander4017.002$17.7MFREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly349.039$14.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley3612.131$12.0MFREE AGENT
Rafael Montero326.138$11.5MFREE AGENT
Héctor Neris347.068$8.0MFREE AGENT
Yordan Alvarez263.113$7.8M$10.8M$15.8M$26.8M$26.8M$26.8MFREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado3610.156$4.0MFREE AGENT
Cristian Javier263.000$3.4M$7.4M$10.4M$21.4M$21.4MFREE AGENT
Kendall Graveman327.078$2.7MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (6)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Framber Valdez293.163$6.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Tucker263.079$5.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek315.038$3.6MFREE AGENT
José Urquidy283.049$3.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Maton305.047$2.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Garcia263.000$763kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Mauricio Dubón282.162$1.4MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Gage300.032$770kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Peña251.000$755kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chas McCormick282.000$752kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Abreu262.022$745kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Meyers271.044$732kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Martinez280.152$730kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Brown240.035$725kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hensley270.047$723kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronel Blanco290.025$721kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yainer Diaz240.035$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. France280.000$573kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Kuhnel281.041$568kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Julks270.000$546kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Grae Kessinger250.000$457kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Parker Mushinski270.071$388kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
César Salazar270.000$314kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Bielak272.032$298kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bennett Sousa280.068$188kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Singleton310.167$145kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bligh Madris270.070$128kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rylan Bannon270.028$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Dubin270.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});