RRosternomics
𝕏

Dodgers LAD

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Andrew Friedman

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 8 in this regime · payroll 2.35× league · TAB +12.3
+12.3TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+13.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
12.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-4.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
16%dead money %4th/30
0.654win %2nd/30
56.8roster fWAR1st/30
-113surplus $M (value vs cost)30th/30
$297Mpayroll $M1st/30

2021: made playoffs · 106–56. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFCody Bellinger 87GChris Taylor 61GMookie Betts 30G
LFAJ Pollock 103GChris Taylor 30GMatt Beaty 28G
RFMookie Betts 98GBilly McKinney 48GZach McKinstry 23G
SSTrea Turner 98GCorey Seager 92GGavin Lux 59G
2BTrea Turner 49GChris Taylor 46GMax Muncy 39G
3BJustin Turner 143GZach McKinstry 12GChris Taylor 11G
1BMax Muncy 122GAlbert Pujols 76GMatt Beaty 21G
STARTERSWalker Buehler 5.6WARJulio Urías 5.4WARClayton Kershaw 3.7WARMax Scherzer 2.6WARTrevor Bauer 1.6WAR
CWill Smith 117GAustin Barnes 52G
DHJustin Turner 4GWill Smith 3GMatt Beaty 2G
BULLPEN★ Kenley Jansen 38svBlake Treinen 32hVictor González 17hJoe Kelly 13hPhil Bickford 10hAlex Vesia 10hJimmy Nelson 6hBrusdar Graterol 4h
CWill Smith 117 · Austin Barnes 52
1BMax Muncy 122 · Albert Pujols 76 · Matt Beaty 21
2BTrea Turner 49 · Chris Taylor 46 · Max Muncy 39
3BJustin Turner 143 · Zach McKinstry 12 · Chris Taylor 11
SSTrea Turner 98 · Corey Seager 92 · Gavin Lux 59
LFAJ Pollock 103 · Chris Taylor 30 · Matt Beaty 28
CFCody Bellinger 87 · Chris Taylor 61 · Mookie Betts 30
RFMookie Betts 98 · Billy McKinney 48 · Zach McKinstry 23
DHJustin Turner 4 · Will Smith 3 · Matt Beaty 2
SPWalker Buehler 5.6 · Julio Urías 5.4 · Clayton Kershaw 3.7 · Max Scherzer 2.6 · Trevor Bauer 1.6
BP★ Kenley Jansen 38 · Blake Treinen 32 · Victor González 17 · Joe Kelly 13 · Phil Bickford 10 · Alex Vesia 10 · Jimmy Nelson 6 · Brusdar Graterol 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Walker Buehler 26 arb 345.6 3.8 +14.4
Julio Urías 24 arb 325.4 3.6 +13.9
Will Smith 26 pre-arb 1304.6 0.6 +14.3
Max Muncy 30 FA-elig 1444.5 9.0 +5.7
Justin Turner 36 FA-elig 1514.1 12.0 +1.2
Mookie Betts 28 FA-elig 1223.9 22.9 -10.2
Corey Seager 27 FA-elig 953.8 13.8 -1.3
Clayton Kershaw 33 FA-elig 243.7 31.0 -19.1
AJ Pollock 33 FA-elig 1173.2 18.0 -7.7
Chris Taylor 30 FA-elig 1482.8 7.8 +1.1
Trea Turner↔ WSN 28 FA-elig 522.7 4.6 +4.3
Max Scherzer↔ WSN 36 FA-elig 112.6 12.7 -4.2
Blake Treinen 33 FA-elig 721.9 8.0 -1.9
Kenley Jansen 33 FA-elig 691.8 20.0 -14.1
Trevor Bauer 30 FA-elig 171.6 31.3 -26.2
Gavin Lux 23 pre-arb 1021.0 0.5 +2.6
Jimmy Nelson 32 FA-elig 280.9 1.2 +1.8
David Price 35 FA-elig 390.9 32.0 -29.1
Joe Kelly 33 FA-elig 480.7 8.8 -6.6
Austin Barnes 31 FA-elig 770.7 1.6 +0.5
Tony Gonsolin 27 pre-arb 170.6 0.6 +1.5
Corey Knebel 29 FA-elig 270.6 5.2 -3.3
Phil Bickford↔ MIL 25 pre-arb 560.6 0.4 +1.5
Dustin May 23 pre-arb 50.5 0.6 +0.9
Albert Pujols↔ ANA 41 FA-elig 850.5 23.4 -21.9
Mitch White 26 pre-arb 210.4 0.2 +1.2
Matt Beaty 28 pre-arb 1200.4 0.5 +0.8
Brusdar Graterol 22 pre-arb 340.3 0.4 +0.5
Alex Vesia 25 pre-arb 410.3 0.4 +0.4
Justin Bruihl 24 – 210.2 0.2 +0.4
Andrew Vasquez 27 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.5
Evan Phillips↔ TBR 26 pre-arb 70.1 0.1 +0.3
Edwin Uceta 23 – 140.1 0.2 +0.2
Victor González 25 pre-arb 440.1 0.5 -0.1
DJ Peters↔ TEX 25 – 180.1 0.1 +0.3
Neftalí Feliz↔ PHI 33 FA-elig 30.1 0.0 +0.2
Andy Burns 30 arb 90.0 0.1 +0.0
Conner Greene↔ BAL 26 – 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Andre Jackson 25 – 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Kevin Quackenbush 32 arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Keibert Ruiz↔ WSN 22 – 60.0 0.0 +0.0
Yefry Ramírez 27 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Jake Reed↔ NYM 28 – 60.0 0.1 -0.1
Scott Alexander 31 FA-elig 18-0.0 1.0 -1.1
Mike Kickham 32 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
James Sherfy↔ SFG 29 arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Zach McKinstry 26 pre-arb 60-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Dennis Santana↔ TEX 25 – 16-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Shane Greene↔ ATL 32 – 9-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Yoshi Tsutsugo↔ PIT 29 pre-arb 12-0.1 1.0 -1.5
Steven Souza Jr. 32 – 17-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Garrett Cleavinger 27 pre-arb 22-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Zach Reks 27 – 6-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Darien Núñez 28 – 6-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Josiah Gray↔ WSN 23 – 2-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Nate Jones↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 8-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Billy McKinney↔ MIL 26 pre-arb 37-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Luke Raley 26 – 33-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Sheldon Neuse 26 pre-arb 33-0.4 0.1 -1.5
Edwin Rios 27 pre-arb 25-0.5 0.6 -2.1
Cody Bellinger 25 arb 95-1.0 16.1 -19.4

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Trea Turner2.7
Max Scherzer2.6
Trevor Bauer1.6
Jimmy Nelson0.9
David Price0.9
Corey Knebel0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Jake McGee0.7
Dylan Floro0.6
Adam Kolarek0.4
Enrique Hernández0.3
Pedro Báez0.1
Alex Wood-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$297.2M
2022 guaranteed
$18.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
David Price3510.164$32.0MFREE AGENT
Trevor Bauer306.158$31.3MFREE AGENT
Clayton Kershaw3312.105$31.0MFREE AGENT
Albert Pujols4120.000$23.4MFREE AGENT
Mookie Betts286.070$22.9M$18.7M$21.2M$26.2M$26.2M$25.2M$29.7M
Kenley Jansen3310.072$20.0MFREE AGENT
AJ Pollock338.052$18.0MFREE AGENT
Max Scherzer3612.079$12.7MFREE AGENT
Justin Turner3610.045$12.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Kelly338.029$8.8MFREE AGENT
Blake Treinen336.065$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jimmy Nelson326.107$1.2MFREE AGENT
Shane Greene326.075$381kFREE AGENT
Steven Souza Jr.327.000$124kFREE AGENT
Nate Jones359.000$84kFREE AGENT
Neftalí Feliz337.129$20kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Cody Bellinger253.160$16.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Seager275.032$13.8MFREE AGENT
Max Muncy304.027$9.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Taylor305.037$7.8MFREE AGENT
Corey Knebel295.151$5.2MFREE AGENT
Trea Turner284.135$4.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Julio Urías243.117$3.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Barnes314.098$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Alexander314.039$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
James Sherfy294.000$163kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Raley264.106$147kARB 3FREE AGENT
Andy Burns305.000$100kFREE AGENT
Darien Núñez284.030$83kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Quackenbush323.043$15kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Walker Buehler262.168$3.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoshi Tsutsugo291.000$1.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Rios271.043$590kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustin May231.059$590kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Smith261.090$590kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Gonsolin270.152$580kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gavin Lux230.114$534kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Beaty281.104$524kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Cleavinger270.014$472kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor González250.128$459kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brusdar Graterol221.029$435kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach McKinstry260.017$407kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Bickford250.008$401kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Vesia250.136$368kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edwin Uceta230.000$190kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Bruihl240.000$172kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch White260.025$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sheldon Neuse260.032$141kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Phillips260.133$126kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Santana251.105$83kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy McKinney261.107$73kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Peters251.088$69kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Reed280.000$68kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Reks270.000$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josiah Gray230.000$28kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keibert Ruiz220.022$27kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Vasquez270.030$21kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andre Jackson250.000$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Conner Greene262.064$10kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yefry Ramírez270.163$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Kickham320.165$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Dodgers 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'LAD',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});