RRosternomics
𝕏

Brewers MIL

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: David Stearns

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.78× league · TAB +11.1
+11.1TAB — talent above budget8th/30
+16.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-2.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
31%dead money %11th/30
0.589win %5th/30
42.6roster fWAR8th/30
+43surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$102Mpayroll $M21st/30

2018: made playoffs · 96–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFLorenzo Cain 138GKeon Broxton 24GChristian Yelich 20G
LFRyan Braun 93GChristian Yelich 90GCurtis Granderson 44G
RFChristian Yelich 75GDomingo Santana 55GCurtis Granderson 45G
SSOrlando Arcia 116GTyler Saladino 28GEric Sogard 24G
2BJonathan Schoop 116GHernán Pérez 51GTravis Shaw 39G
3BMike Moustakas 128GTravis Shaw 107GHernán Pérez 22G
1BJesús Aguilar 132GBrad Miller 36GEric Thames 29G
STARTERSJhoulys Chacín 2.4WARJunior Guerra 1.5WARWade Miley 1.3WARBrent Suter 1.3WARFreddy Peralta 0.9WAR
CManny Piña 92GErik Kratz 61GJett Bandy 22G
DHRyan Braun 3GJesús Aguilar 2GDomingo Santana 1G
BULLPEN★ Joakim Soria 16svJosh Hader 21hJeremy Jeffress 18hDan Jennings 11hXavier Cedeño 11hCorey Knebel 7hTaylor Williams 4hJacob Barnes 4h
CManny Piña 92 · Erik Kratz 61 · Jett Bandy 22
1BJesús Aguilar 132 · Brad Miller 36 · Eric Thames 29
2BJonathan Schoop 116 · Hernán Pérez 51 · Travis Shaw 39
3BMike Moustakas 128 · Travis Shaw 107 · Hernán Pérez 22
SSOrlando Arcia 116 · Tyler Saladino 28 · Eric Sogard 24
LFRyan Braun 93 · Christian Yelich 90 · Curtis Granderson 44
CFLorenzo Cain 138 · Keon Broxton 24 · Christian Yelich 20
RFChristian Yelich 75 · Domingo Santana 55 · Curtis Granderson 45
DHRyan Braun 3 · Jesús Aguilar 2 · Domingo Santana 1
SPJhoulys Chacín 2.4 · Junior Guerra 1.5 · Wade Miley 1.3 · Brent Suter 1.3 · Freddy Peralta 0.9
BP★ Joakim Soria 16 · Josh Hader 21 · Jeremy Jeffress 18 · Dan Jennings 11 · Xavier Cedeño 11 · Corey Knebel 7 · Taylor Williams 4 · Jacob Barnes 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Christian Yelich 26 arb 1477.7 7.0 +19.1
Lorenzo Cain 32 FA-elig 1416.0 14.0 +6.3
Travis Shaw 28 arb 1523.7 0.6 +12.0
Jesús Aguilar 28 arb 1493.0 0.6 +9.7
Josh Hader 24 pre-arb 552.6 0.6 +8.4
Jhoulys Chacín 30 FA-elig 362.4 8.8 -0.4
Manny Piña 31 FA-elig 981.8 0.6 +5.6
Jeremy Jeffress 30 FA-elig 731.7 1.7 +4.1
Junior Guerra 33 pre-arb 311.5 0.5 +4.5
Wade Miley 31 FA-elig 161.3 2.5 +2.1
Brent Suter 28 pre-arb 211.3 0.6 +3.9
Erik Kratz 38 arb 671.1 0.4 +3.3
Ryan Braun 34 FA-elig 1251.0 20.0 -16.6
Keon Broxton 28 pre-arb 511.0 0.2 +3.1
Freddy Peralta 22 – 160.9 0.5 +2.7
Corey Knebel 26 arb 570.9 3.6 -0.5
Jonathan Villar↔ BAL 27 arb 870.7 1.6 +1.0
Mike Moustakas↔ KCR 29 FA-elig 540.7 2.0 +0.5
Brandon Woodruff 25 pre-arb 190.7 0.6 +1.8
Domingo Santana 25 arb 850.7 0.6 +1.7
Hernán Pérez 27 FA-elig 1320.6 2.0 -0.0
Gio Gonzalez↔ WSN 32 FA-elig 50.5 1.9 -0.2
Joakim Soria↔ CHW 34 FA-elig 260.5 3.5 -2.0
Eric Thames 31 FA-elig 960.5 5.0 -3.5
Zach Davies 25 arb 130.4 0.6 +0.7
Jordan Lyles↔ SDP 27 FA-elig 110.3 0.2 +0.9
Curtis Granderson↔ TOR 37 FA-elig 190.3 0.8 +0.3
Jacob Barnes 28 pre-arb 490.3 0.6 +0.5
Taylor Williams 26 pre-arb 560.3 0.5 +0.4
Dan Jennings 31 arb 720.2 0.8 +0.1
Oliver Drake↔ ANA 31 arb 110.2 0.1 +0.6
Corbin Burnes 23 – 300.2 0.3 +0.3
Xavier Cedeño↔ CHW 31 arb 150.1 0.2 +0.2
Tyler Saladino↔ CHW 28 arb 520.1 0.5 -0.2
Adrian Houser 25 pre-arb 70.1 0.0 +0.2
Jorge López↔ KCR 25 – 100.1 0.1 +0.1
Alec Asher 26 pre-arb 20.0 0.1 +0.1
Jacob Nottingham 23 – 90.0 0.2 -0.0
Ji Man Choi↔ TBR 27 pre-arb 120.0 0.2 -0.1
Brett Phillips↔ KCR 24 – 150.0 0.1 -0.0
Nate Orf 28 pre-arb 15-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Chase Anderson 30 arb 30-0.0 4.8 -4.8
Mike Zagurski 35 arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Orlando Arcia 23 pre-arb 119-0.0 0.6 -0.6
Nick Franklin 27 pre-arb 1-0.0 0.4 -0.6
Jonathan Schoop↔ BAL 26 arb 46-0.1 3.0 -3.2
Aaron Wilkerson 29 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Jett Bandy 28 arb 24-0.2 0.6 -1.2
Brad Miller↔ TBR 28 arb 27-0.2 1.6 -2.4
J.J. Hoover 30 – 2-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Boone Logan 33 FA-elig 16-0.3 1.9 -2.8
Eric Sogard 32 FA-elig 55-0.7 2.4 -4.9
Matt Albers 35 FA-elig 34-0.9 2.5 -5.5

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Christian Yelich7.7
Lorenzo Cain6.0
Jhoulys Chacín2.4
Wade Miley1.3
Erik Kratz1.1
Freddy Peralta0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Neil Walker1.0
Matt Garza0.7
Anthony Swarzak0.5
Jared Hughes0.5
Tommy Milone0.1
Wily Peralta0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$101.8M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Ryan Braun3410.129$20.0MFREE AGENT
Lorenzo Cain326.074$14.0MFREE AGENT
Jhoulys Chacín307.054$8.8MFREE AGENT
Joakim Soria3411.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Wade Miley316.044$2.5MFREE AGENT
Matt Albers3510.141$2.5MFREE AGENT
Eric Sogard328.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Mike Moustakas296.111$2.0MFREE AGENT
Boone Logan3312.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez3210.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Curtis Granderson3714.077$772kFREE AGENT
Manny Piña317.000$560kFREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles276.001$223kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Christian Yelich264.069$7.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase Anderson303.146$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Schoop264.027$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Hernán Pérez273.079$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress304.104$1.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Miller285.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar273.113$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Jennings314.171$750kARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Kratz384.026$378kARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Cedeño314.060$205kARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Hoover304.153$30kARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zagurski353.055$29kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Eric Thames312.063$5.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Knebel262.151$3.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Domingo Santana252.079$572kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Davies252.020$572kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Shaw282.088$567kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Orlando Arcia231.062$560kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Barnes281.123$559kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar281.082$557kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hader240.115$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Suter280.161$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jett Bandy281.161$551kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Woodruff250.089$550kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Guerra331.155$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Saladino282.087$507kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Williams260.031$489kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Peralta220.000$469kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Franklin272.147$428kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corbin Burnes230.000$252kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keon Broxton281.137$205kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ji Man Choi272.000$167kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Nottingham230.000$152kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake311.094$139kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jorge López250.015$81kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Orf280.062$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Asher260.144$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Phillips240.053$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Houser250.013$41kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Wilkerson290.017$26kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});