RRosternomics
𝕏

Brewers MIL

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: David Stearns

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.95× league · TAB +1.9
+1.9TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+7.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)9th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
27%dead money %12th/30
0.549win %11th/30
35.6roster fWAR15th/30
-7surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$123Mpayroll $M15th/30

2019: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFLorenzo Cain 143GBen Gamel 22GTrent Grisham 21G
LFRyan Braun 110GBen Gamel 70GTrent Grisham 17G
RFChristian Yelich 124GBen Gamel 23GTrent Grisham 16G
SSOrlando Arcia 150GHernán Pérez 21GTyler Saladino 13G
2BKeston Hiura 81GMike Moustakas 47GHernán Pérez 45G
3BMike Moustakas 105GTravis Shaw 71GHernán Pérez 14G
1BEric Thames 105GTyler Austin 23GYasmani Grandal 20G
STARTERSBrandon Woodruff 3.8WARZach Davies 1.6WARAdrian Houser 1.5WARGio Gonzalez 1.2WARChase Anderson 1.1WAR
CYasmani Grandal 137GManny Piña 53GJacob Nottingham 6G
DHRyan Braun 3GEric Thames 3GChristian Yelich 2G
BULLPEN★ Josh Hader 37svAlex Claudio 22hJunior Guerra 20hJeremy Jeffress 12hMatt Albers 10hCorbin Burnes 4hJay Jackson 2hRay Black 2h
CYasmani Grandal 137 · Manny Piña 53 · Jacob Nottingham 6
1BEric Thames 105 · Tyler Austin 23 · Yasmani Grandal 20
2BKeston Hiura 81 · Mike Moustakas 47 · Hernán Pérez 45
3BMike Moustakas 105 · Travis Shaw 71 · Hernán Pérez 14
SSOrlando Arcia 150 · Hernán Pérez 21 · Tyler Saladino 13
LFRyan Braun 110 · Ben Gamel 70 · Trent Grisham 17
CFLorenzo Cain 143 · Ben Gamel 22 · Trent Grisham 21
RFChristian Yelich 124 · Ben Gamel 23 · Trent Grisham 16
DHRyan Braun 3 · Eric Thames 3 · Christian Yelich 2
SPBrandon Woodruff 3.8 · Zach Davies 1.6 · Adrian Houser 1.5 · Gio Gonzalez 1.2 · Chase Anderson 1.1
BP★ Josh Hader 37 · Alex Claudio 22 · Junior Guerra 20 · Jeremy Jeffress 12 · Matt Albers 10 · Corbin Burnes 4 · Jay Jackson 2 · Ray Black 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Christian Yelich 27 FA-elig 1306.6 9.8 +12.0
Yasmani Grandal 30 FA-elig 1535.7 16.0 +2.8
Brandon Woodruff 26 pre-arb 273.8 0.6 +11.8
Mike Moustakas 30 FA-elig 1432.7 7.0 +2.0
Eric Thames 32 FA-elig 1492.3 6.0 +1.6
Josh Hader 25 pre-arb 612.2 0.7 +6.6
Keston Hiura 22 – 842.2 0.3 +7.0
Ryan Braun 35 FA-elig 1442.0 19.0 -12.3
Zach Davies 26 arb 351.6 2.6 +2.6
Adrian Houser 26 pre-arb 351.5 0.5 +4.3
Lorenzo Cain 33 FA-elig 1481.4 15.0 -10.3
Manny Piña 32 FA-elig 761.3 1.6 +2.6
Gio Gonzalez 33 FA-elig 191.2 2.0 +1.9
Chase Anderson 31 arb 331.1 6.5 -3.0
Freddy Peralta 23 pre-arb 400.8 0.6 +2.2
Trent Grisham 22 – 510.7 0.2 +2.1
Jordan Lyles↔ PIT 28 FA-elig 110.7 0.8 +1.5
Drew Pomeranz↔ SFG 30 FA-elig 250.7 0.8 +1.5
Ben Gamel 27 arb 1340.5 0.6 +1.0
Brent Suter 29 arb 90.5 0.6 +0.9
Jeremy Jeffress 31 FA-elig 480.3 3.2 -2.1
Cory Spangenberg 28 arb 320.3 1.2 -0.2
Junior Guerra 34 arb 720.3 2.2 -1.3
Tyrone Taylor 25 – 150.2 0.1 +0.6
Jacob Nottingham 24 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 +0.3
Jhoulys Chacín↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 190.1 5.1 -4.8
Taylor Williams 27 pre-arb 120.1 0.6 -0.3
Tyler Austin↔ MIN 27 arb 170.1 0.1 +0.1
Donnie Hart↔ NYM 28 – 40.0 0.0 -0.0
Jake Petricka 31 – 6-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Devin Williams 24 – 13-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Matt Albers 36 FA-elig 67-0.0 2.5 -2.6
Mauricio Dubón↔ SFG 24 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Jay Jackson 31 pre-arb 28-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Jacob Barnes↔ KCR 29 arb 18-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Deolis Guerra 30 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Aaron Wilkerson 30 pre-arb 8-0.1 0.1 -0.5
David Freitas↔ SEA 30 pre-arb 16-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Jimmy Nelson 30 FA-elig 10-0.2 3.7 -4.3
Jesús Aguilar↔ TBR 29 arb 94-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Burch Smith↔ SFG 29 – 7-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Alex Claudio 27 arb 83-0.2 1.3 -2.0
Jake Faria↔ TBR 25 pre-arb 9-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Alex Wilson 32 FA-elig 13-0.3 0.8 -1.6
Corbin Burnes 24 pre-arb 32-0.3 0.6 -1.5
Tyler Saladino 29 arb 28-0.3 0.9 -1.9
Ray Black↔ SFG 29 pre-arb 15-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Hernán Pérez 28 FA-elig 91-0.6 2.5 -4.3
Orlando Arcia 24 arb 152-0.9 0.6 -3.6
Travis Shaw 29 arb 86-1.2 4.7 -8.6

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Yasmani Grandal5.7
Keston Hiura2.2
Trent Grisham0.7
Drew Pomeranz0.7
Ben Gamel0.5
Cory Spangenberg0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Wade Miley1.3
Keon Broxton1.0
Jonathan Villar0.7
Domingo Santana0.7
Curtis Granderson0.3
Dan Jennings0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$123.2M
2020 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Ryan Braun3511.129$19.0MFREE AGENT
Yasmani Grandal306.115$16.0MFREE AGENT
Lorenzo Cain337.074$15.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Moustakas307.111$7.0MFREE AGENT
Jhoulys Chacín318.054$5.1MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Jeffress319.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Albers3611.141$2.5MFREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez339.162$2.0MFREE AGENT
Manny Piña328.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Drew Pomeranz306.013$815kFREE AGENT
Jordan Lyles287.001$805kFREE AGENT
Alex Wilson326.000$750kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Christian Yelich275.069$9.8MFREE AGENT
Chase Anderson314.146$6.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Thames323.063$6.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Shaw293.088$4.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Nelson304.107$3.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Davies263.020$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hernán Pérez284.079$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Claudio273.114$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Spangenberg284.004$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Saladino293.035$888kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Petricka314.157$58kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Junior Guerra342.155$2.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hader251.115$688kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Suter291.161$568kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Gamel272.029$568kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Orlando Arcia242.047$566kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Freddy Peralta230.090$565kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Williams271.026$564kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corbin Burnes240.086$563kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Woodruff260.161$561kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Freitas300.159$526kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar292.082$457kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Houser260.031$451kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Jackson310.021$366kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keston Hiura220.000$337kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Barnes292.098$310kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Grisham220.000$179kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Williams240.000$134kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Nottingham240.054$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Wilkerson300.026$122kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Austin271.159$109kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Black290.103$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyrone Taylor250.000$69kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Faria251.107$62kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Hart281.112$48kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Burch Smith292.051$39kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Dubón240.000$7kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deolis Guerra301.144$6kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});