RRosternomics
𝕏

Brewers MIL

‹ ›

GM: Matt Arnold

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 7 in this regime · payroll 0.87× league · TAB +1.9
+1.9TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+11.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-6.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag25th/30
35%dead money %15th/30
0.568win %5th/30
34.5roster fWAR13th/30
+3surplus $M (value vs cost)12th/30
$134Mpayroll $M18th/30

2023: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJoey Wiemer 121GSal Frelick 30GGarrett Mitchell 19G
LFChristian Yelich 122GMark Canha 68GTyrone Taylor 21G
RFTyrone Taylor 60GSal Frelick 40GBrian Anderson 39G
SSWilly Adames 147GBrice Turang 22GAndruw Monasterio 5G
2BBrice Turang 119GOwen Miller 42GAndruw Monasterio 32G
3BBrian Anderson 70GAndruw Monasterio 56GJosh Donaldson 38G
1BCarlos Santana 135GRowdy Tellez 76GOwen Miller 35G
STARTERSCorbin Burnes 3.4WARFreddy Peralta 3.0WARAdrian Houser 1.7WARBrandon Woodruff 1.4WARWade Miley 1.0WAR
CWilliam Contreras 108GVictor Caratini 58G
DHJesse Winker 48GMark Canha 33GWilliam Contreras 33G
BULLPEN★ Devin Williams 36svJoel Payamps 27hElvis Peguero 21hHoby Milner 17hAndrew Chafin 14hAbner Uribe 8hBryse Wilson 5hTrevor Megill 4h
CWilliam Contreras 108 · Victor Caratini 58
1BCarlos Santana 135 · Rowdy Tellez 76 · Owen Miller 35
2BBrice Turang 119 · Owen Miller 42 · Andruw Monasterio 32
3BBrian Anderson 70 · Andruw Monasterio 56 · Josh Donaldson 38
SSWilly Adames 147 · Brice Turang 22 · Andruw Monasterio 5
LFChristian Yelich 122 · Mark Canha 68 · Tyrone Taylor 21
CFJoey Wiemer 121 · Sal Frelick 30 · Garrett Mitchell 19
RFTyrone Taylor 60 · Sal Frelick 40 · Brian Anderson 39
DHJesse Winker 48 · Mark Canha 33 · William Contreras 33
SPCorbin Burnes 3.4 · Freddy Peralta 3.0 · Adrian Houser 1.7 · Brandon Woodruff 1.4 · Wade Miley 1.0
BP★ Devin Williams 36 · Joel Payamps 27 · Elvis Peguero 21 · Hoby Milner 17 · Andrew Chafin 14 · Abner Uribe 8 · Bryse Wilson 5 · Trevor Megill 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
William Contreras 25 arb 1415.8 0.7 +22.3
Christian Yelich 31 FA-elig 1443.8 26.0 -11.1
Corbin Burnes 28 arb 323.4 10.0 +3.5
Willy Adames 27 arb 1493.4 8.7 +4.8
Freddy Peralta 27 arb 303.0 3.7 +8.2
Devin Williams 28 arb 611.8 3.4 +3.8
Adrian Houser 30 FA-elig 231.7 3.6 +3.3
Brandon Woodruff 30 FA-elig 111.4 10.8 -5.1
Joel Payamps 29 arb 691.2 0.7 +3.9
Victor Caratini 29 FA-elig 621.2 2.8 +1.8
Sal Frelick 23 – 571.1 0.3 +4.2
Blake Perkins 26 – 671.1 0.5 +3.7
Wade Miley 36 FA-elig 231.0 3.5 +0.6
Tyrone Taylor 29 arb 811.0 0.7 +3.3
Hoby Milner 32 FA-elig 731.0 1.0 +2.9
Joey Wiemer 24 – 1321.0 0.7 +3.2
Owen Miller 26 pre-arb 900.9 0.7 +3.0
Mark Canha↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 500.9 4.1 -0.5
Trevor Megill 29 pre-arb 310.8 0.4 +2.9
Colin Rea 32 arb 260.8 0.6 +2.4
Carlos Santana↔ PIT 37 FA-elig 520.7 2.4 +0.4
Abner Uribe 23 – 320.6 0.3 +2.0
Andruw Monasterio 26 – 920.6 0.5 +1.8
Elvis Peguero 26 pre-arb 590.6 0.7 +1.6
Brian Anderson 30 FA-elig 960.4 3.5 -2.1
Bryse Wilson 25 arb 530.3 0.7 +0.5
Peter Strzelecki↔ ARI 28 pre-arb 360.3 0.7 +0.5
Julio Teheran 32 FA-elig 140.3 1.5 -0.3
Garrett Mitchell 24 pre-arb 190.3 0.7 +0.4
Abraham Toro 26 arb 90.2 1.2 -0.3
Thomas Pannone 29 – 10.1 0.0 +0.4
J.B. Bukauskas↔ SEA 26 pre-arb 50.1 0.2 +0.2
Josh Donaldson↔ NYY 37 FA-elig 170.1 7.2 -7.0
Thyago Vieira 29 pre-arb 20.1 0.1 +0.1
Janson Junk 27 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.2
Alex Claudio 31 FA-elig 10.0 0.1 -0.1
J.C. Mejía 26 – 90.0 – –
Ethan Small 26 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Jahmai Jones 25 pre-arb 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Bennett Sousa↔ HOU 28 – 2-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Caleb Boushley 29 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Tyson Miller↔ LAD 27 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Brice Turang 23 – 137-0.1 0.6 -1.2
Jake Cousins 28 – 9-0.1 0.1 -0.7
Javy Guerra↔ TBR 27 arb 8-0.1 0.3 -0.9
Darin Ruf↔ SFG 36 FA-elig 11-0.2 1.6 -2.3
Luis Urías↔ BOS 26 arb 20-0.2 1.8 -2.6
Andrew Chafin↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 20-0.3 1.7 -2.8
Raimel Tapia↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 20-0.3 0.6 -1.8
Gus Varland↔ LAD 26 – 8-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Clayton Andrews 26 – 4-0.3 0.1 -1.4
Jon Singleton↔ HOU 31 – 11-0.4 0.1 -1.6
Luke Voit 32 FA-elig 22-0.4 2.0 -3.7
Mike Brosseau 29 arb 29-0.5 1.4 -3.3
Rowdy Tellez 28 arb 106-0.7 5.0 -7.6
Matt Bush 37 FA-elig 12-0.7 1.9 -4.7
Jesse Winker 29 FA-elig 61-0.8 8.2 -11.3
Eric Lauer 28 arb 10-0.9 5.1 -8.5

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
William Contreras5.8
Joel Payamps1.2
Sal Frelick1.1
Blake Perkins1.1
Wade Miley1.0
Joey Wiemer1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Hunter Renfroe2.4
Jace Peterson2.1
Omar Narváez1.3
Brad Boxberger0.7
Andrew McCutchen0.6
Josh Hader0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$133.8M
2024 guaranteed
$29.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Christian Yelich319.069$26.0M$24.2M$24.1M$24.0M$23.9M$23.9M$20.0MMUTUAL
Josh Donaldson3710.158$7.2MFREE AGENT
Mark Canha347.092$4.1MFREE AGENT
Freddy Peralta274.090$3.7M$5.7M$8.1MCLUB$8.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Wade Miley3611.025$3.5MFREE AGENT
Brian Anderson306.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Carlos Santana3712.115$2.4MFREE AGENT
Luke Voit326.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Andrew Chafin338.020$1.7MFREE AGENT
Julio Teheran329.062$1.5MFREE AGENT
Alex Claudio316.092$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Brandon Woodruff304.161$10.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Corbin Burnes284.049$10.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Adames274.105$8.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Winker295.080$8.2MFREE AGENT
Eric Lauer284.033$5.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rowdy Tellez284.004$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adrian Houser304.010$3.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Devin Williams283.056$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Victor Caratini295.051$2.8MFREE AGENT
Matt Bush374.132$1.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Urías263.120$1.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darin Ruf365.138$1.6MFREE AGENT
Mike Brosseau294.000$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Hoby Milner323.068$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raimel Tapia295.020$625kFREE AGENT
Colin Rea323.090$556kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Pannone294.002$15kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (30)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Abraham Toro262.149$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
William Contreras251.112$739kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyrone Taylor292.093$735kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryse Wilson252.036$733kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Owen Miller261.091$731kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel Payamps292.027$730kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Mitchell240.040$724kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Peter Strzelecki280.081$707kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wiemer240.000$666kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elvis Peguero260.073$650kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brice Turang230.000$635kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Perkins260.000$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andruw Monasterio260.000$492kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Megill291.074$387kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra272.110$341kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abner Uribe230.000$329kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Frelick230.000$275kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.B. Bukauskas261.033$158kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Cousins281.090$105kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thyago Vieira290.084$97kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gus Varland260.000$93kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jahmai Jones250.052$77kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bennett Sousa280.068$75kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyson Miller271.006$70kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Singleton310.167$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Andrews260.000$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Janson Junk270.048$15kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ethan Small260.003$12kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Boushley290.000$8kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.C. Mejía26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Brewers 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});