RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

‹ ›

GM: Terry Ryan

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.61× league · TAB +13.9
+13.9TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+18.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-2.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
11%dead money %5th/30
0.584win %8th/30
41.9roster fWAR9th/30
+23surplus $M (value vs cost)2nd/30
$40Mpayroll $M28th/30

2002: made playoffs · 94–67. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTorii Hunter 146GBobby Kielty 34GMichael Ryan 3G
LFJacque Jones 143GDustan Mohr 28GBobby Kielty 9G
RFDustan Mohr 94GBobby Kielty 50GMichael Cuddyer 25G
SSCristian Guzman 147GDenny Hocking 25GDavid Lamb 4G
2BLuis Rivas 93GDenny Hocking 56GJay Canizaro 30G
3BCorey Koskie 138GDenny Hocking 16GMichael Cuddyer 10G
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 143GDavid Ortiz 15GMatthew LeCroy 8G
STARTERSJohan Santana 3.4WAREric Milton 3.3WARRick Reed 2.1WARBrad Radke 2.1WARKyle Lohse 1.2WAR
CA.J. Pierzynski 124GTom Prince 50GMatthew LeCroy 6G
DHDavid Ortiz 94GMatthew LeCroy 35GBrian Buchanan 15G
BULLPEN★ Eddie Guardado 45svJ.C. Romero 33hMike Jackson 19hLaTroy Hawkins 13hBob Wells 6hTony Fiore 5hJack Cressend 0hJuan Rincon 0h
CA.J. Pierzynski 124 · Tom Prince 50 · Matthew LeCroy 6
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 143 · David Ortiz 15 · Matthew LeCroy 8
2BLuis Rivas 93 · Denny Hocking 56 · Jay Canizaro 30
3BCorey Koskie 138 · Denny Hocking 16 · Michael Cuddyer 10
SSCristian Guzman 147 · Denny Hocking 25 · David Lamb 4
LFJacque Jones 143 · Dustan Mohr 28 · Bobby Kielty 9
CFTorii Hunter 146 · Bobby Kielty 34 · Michael Ryan 3
RFDustan Mohr 94 · Bobby Kielty 50 · Michael Cuddyer 25
DHDavid Ortiz 94 · Matthew LeCroy 35 · Brian Buchanan 15
SPJohan Santana 3.4 · Eric Milton 3.3 · Rick Reed 2.1 · Brad Radke 2.1 · Kyle Lohse 1.2
BP★ Eddie Guardado 45 · J.C. Romero 33 · Mike Jackson 19 · LaTroy Hawkins 13 · Bob Wells 6 · Tony Fiore 5 · Jack Cressend 0 · Juan Rincon 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2002 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Corey Koskie 29 arb 1405.0 2.1 +6.5
Jacque Jones 27 arb 1495.0 0.3 +8.3
Torii Hunter 26 arb 1484.2 2.4 +4.9
Johan Santana 23 – 273.4 – –
Eric Milton 26 arb 293.3 4.0 +1.6
Bobby Kielty 25 – 1122.7 – –
Doug Mientkiewicz 28 arb 1432.2 0.3 +3.4
Rick Reed 37 FA-elig 332.1 7.0 -3.4
Brad Radke 29 FA-elig 212.1 8.8 -5.2
Dustan Mohr 26 pre-arb 1202.1 0.2 +3.4
A.J. Pierzynski 25 arb 1302.0 0.2 +3.2
J.C. Romero 26 arb 811.6 0.2 +2.5
LaTroy Hawkins 29 FA-elig 651.6 2.8 -0.0
Eddie Guardado 31 FA-elig 681.2 1.8 +0.3
Kyle Lohse 23 pre-arb 321.2 0.2 +1.8
David Ortiz 26 arb 1251.1 0.9 +1.0
Cristian Guzman 24 arb 1481.1 1.4 +0.5
Tom Prince 37 FA-elig 510.8 0.5 +1.0
Joe Mays 26 arb 170.5 2.4 -1.4
Luis Rivas 22 pre-arb 930.4 0.2 +0.4
Mike Jackson 37 FA-elig 580.3 0.5 +0.1
Michael Cuddyer 23 – 410.3 – –
Javier Valentin 26 – 40.1 – –
Juan Rincon 23 – 100.1 – –
Todd Sears 26 – 70.1 – –
Travis Miller 29 – 50.0 – –
Tony Fiore 30 – 480.0 – –
Brian Buchanan↔ SDP 28 pre-arb 440.0 0.1 -0.1
Bob Wells 35 FA-elig 48-0.0 1.7 -1.8
Jose Rodriguez↔ STL 27 – 4-0.1 – –
Michael Restovich 23 – 8-0.1 – –
Warren Morris 28 arb 4-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Jay Canizaro 28 FA-elig 38-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Mike Trombley 35 – 5-0.2 – –
David Lamb 27 – 7-0.2 – –
Matt Kinney 25 – 14-0.2 – –
Michael Ryan 24 – 7-0.2 – –
Denny Hocking 32 FA-elig 102-0.2 1.1 -1.4
Casey Blake 28 – 9-0.2 – –
Kevin Frederick 25 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.2 -0.7
Matthew LeCroy 26 – 63-0.3 – –
Jack Cressend 27 pre-arb 23-0.4 0.2 -1.0

Key additions (new vs 2001)

PlayerfWAR
Mike Jackson0.3
Javier Valentin0.1
Todd Sears0.1
Jose Rodriguez-0.1
Michael Restovich-0.1
Warren Morris-0.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2001)

Player2001 fWAR
Matt Lawton III2.2
Hector Carrasco0.6
Mark Redman0.5
Todd Jones-0.0
Mike Duvall-0.0
Chad Allen-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2002 payroll
$40.1M

What the front office was committed to as of 2002, 2002–2008. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Brad Radke297.000$8.8M$8.8M$10.8M$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Rick Reed3714.000$7.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins297.000$2.8M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Eddie Guardado319.000$1.8M$2.7MFREE AGENT$1.7M
Bob Wells358.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Denny Hocking329.000$1.1M$1.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Jackson3716.000$500kFREE AGENT
Tom Prince3715.000$450k$338kFREE AGENT
Jay Canizaro286.000$235kFREE AGENT
Travis Miller296.000—FREE AGENT
Mike Trombley3510.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Eric Milton264.000$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Torii Hunter265.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Joe Mays263.000$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Koskie294.000$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Guzman243.000$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Ortiz265.000$950kFREE AGENT
Jacque Jones273.000$312kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Mientkiewicz284.000$285kARB 3FREE AGENT
Warren Morris283.000$275kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
A.J. Pierzynski254.000$250kARB 3FREE AGENT
J.C. Romero263.000$215kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javier Valentin265.000—FREE AGENT
David Lamb273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Blake283.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2002200320042005200620072008
Luis Rivas222.000$240kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Cressend272.000$222kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Lohse231.000$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustan Mohr261.000$200kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Frederick250.000$200kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Buchanan282.000$108kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Fiore302.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Cuddyer231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Kinney252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew LeCroy262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Santana232.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Kielty251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Restovich23–—
Jose Rodriguez27–—
Todd Sears26–—
Juan Rincon231.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Ryan240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2002; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});