RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

‹ ›

GM: Terry Ryan

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.85× league · TAB +8.5
+8.5TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+10.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag8th/30
24%dead money %8th/30
0.556win %8th/30
40.7roster fWAR12th/30
+11surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$58Mpayroll $M17th/30

2003: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFTorii Hunter 151GLew Ford 13GDustan Mohr 11G
LFShannon Stewart 115GJacque Jones 90GDustan Mohr 30G
RFDustan Mohr 77GMichael Cuddyer 17GMichael Restovich 14G
SSCristian Guzman 141GDenny Hocking 17GChris Gomez 17G
2BLuis Rivas 134GDenny Hocking 25GChris Gomez 23G
3BCorey Koskie 131GDenny Hocking 24GChris Gomez 18G
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 139GMatthew LeCroy 17GDenny Hocking 10G
STARTERSJohan Santana 3.8WARKyle Lohse 2.9WARBrad Radke 2.8WARKenny Rogers 2.5WARRick Reed 1.2WAR
CA.J. Pierzynski 135GMatthew LeCroy 22GRob Bowen 7G
DHMatthew LeCroy 56GJacque Jones 29GBobby Kielty 29G
BULLPEN★ Eddie Guardado 41svLaTroy Hawkins 28hJ.C. Romero 22hJesse Orosco 11hJuan Rincon 5hGrant Balfour 1hMicheal Nakamura 1hTony Fiore 0h
CA.J. Pierzynski 135 · Matthew LeCroy 22 · Rob Bowen 7
1BDoug Mientkiewicz 139 · Matthew LeCroy 17 · Denny Hocking 10
2BLuis Rivas 134 · Denny Hocking 25 · Chris Gomez 23
3BCorey Koskie 131 · Denny Hocking 24 · Chris Gomez 18
SSCristian Guzman 141 · Denny Hocking 17 · Chris Gomez 17
LFShannon Stewart 115 · Jacque Jones 90 · Dustan Mohr 30
CFTorii Hunter 151 · Lew Ford 13 · Dustan Mohr 11
RFDustan Mohr 77 · Michael Cuddyer 17 · Michael Restovich 14
DHMatthew LeCroy 56 · Jacque Jones 29 · Bobby Kielty 29
SPJohan Santana 3.8 · Kyle Lohse 2.9 · Brad Radke 2.8 · Kenny Rogers 2.5 · Rick Reed 1.2
BP★ Eddie Guardado 41 · LaTroy Hawkins 28 · J.C. Romero 22 · Jesse Orosco 11 · Juan Rincon 5 · Grant Balfour 1 · Micheal Nakamura 1 · Tony Fiore 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Corey Koskie 30 arb 1314.9 3.4 +5.4
Johan Santana 24 arb 453.8 0.3 +6.4
Doug Mientkiewicz 29 arb 1423.7 1.8 +4.8
A.J. Pierzynski 26 arb 1373.6 0.4 +6.0
Torii Hunter 27 FA-elig 1543.5 4.8 +1.5
Kyle Lohse 24 pre-arb 332.9 0.3 +4.8
Brad Radke 30 FA-elig 332.8 8.8 -3.8
LaTroy Hawkins 30 FA-elig 742.6 3.0 +1.6
Kenny Rogers 38 FA-elig 332.5 2.0 +2.5
Shannon Stewart↔ TOR 29 FA-elig 652.4 3.0 +1.2
Jacque Jones 28 arb 1361.8 2.8 +0.5
Eddie Guardado 32 FA-elig 661.4 2.7 -0.2
Cristian Guzman 25 arb 1431.3 2.5 -0.3
Rick Reed 38 FA-elig 271.2 8.0 -5.8
Matthew LeCroy 27 arb 1071.1 0.3 +1.7
Lew Ford 26 – 341.0 – –
Michael Ryan 25 – 270.9 – –
Juan Rincon 24 – 580.7 – –
Bobby Kielty↔ TOR 26 pre-arb 750.5 0.2 +0.8
Dustan Mohr 27 pre-arb 1210.4 0.3 +0.4
Michael Restovich 24 – 240.3 – –
Denny Hocking 33 FA-elig 830.3 1.0 -0.4
Carlos Pulido 31 – 70.3 – –
Tom Prince↔ KCR 38 FA-elig 240.3 0.3 +0.2
Eric Milton 27 arb 30.3 6.0 -5.5
Grant Balfour 25 – 170.1 – –
Joe Mays 27 arb 310.0 4.2 -4.1
Mike Fetters 38 FA-elig 50.0 0.5 -0.5
Jesse Orosco↔ NYY 46 FA-elig 8-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Micheal Nakamura 26 – 12-0.1 – –
Adam Johnson 23 – 2-0.1 – –
Brad Thomas 25 – 3-0.1 – –
Alex Prieto 27 – 8-0.1 – –
Todd Sears↔ SDP 27 – 24-0.2 – –
Justin Morneau 22 – 40-0.2 – –
Tony Fiore 31 arb 21-0.3 0.3 -0.8
Rob Bowen 22 – 7-0.3 – –
Luis Rivas 23 arb 135-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Chris Gomez 32 FA-elig 58-0.4 0.5 -1.3
Michael Cuddyer 24 pre-arb 35-0.4 0.3 -1.1
James Baldwin 31 – 10-0.5 – –
J.C. Romero 27 arb 73-0.6 0.3 -1.3

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Kenny Rogers2.5
Shannon Stewart2.4
Lew Ford1.0
Carlos Pulido0.3
Grant Balfour0.1
Mike Fetters0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
David Ortiz1.1
Mike Jackson0.3
Javier Valentin0.1
Travis Miller0.0
Brian Buchanan0.0
Bob Wells-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$58.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Brad Radke308.000$8.8M$10.8M$9.0M$9.0MFREE AGENT
Rick Reed3815.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Torii Hunter276.000$4.8M$6.5M$8.0M$10.8M$12.0MFREE AGENT
LaTroy Hawkins308.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Shannon Stewart298.000$3.0M$5.5M$6.0M$6.5MFREE AGENT
Eddie Guardado3210.000$2.7MFREE AGENT$1.7M
Kenny Rogers3814.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Denny Hocking3310.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Gomez3210.000$500kFREE AGENT
Mike Fetters3814.000$500kFREE AGENT
Tom Prince3816.000$338kFREE AGENT
Jesse Orosco4624.000$98kFREE AGENT
James Baldwin318.000—FREE AGENT
Carlos Pulido319.000—$305kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Eric Milton275.000$6.0MFREE AGENT
Joe Mays274.000$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Koskie305.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Jacque Jones284.000$2.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Guzman254.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Mientkiewicz295.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
A.J. Pierzynski265.000$365kFREE AGENT
Luis Rivas233.000$340kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Santana243.000$335kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Fiore313.000$330kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.C. Romero274.000$325kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew LeCroy273.000$312kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (16)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Kyle Lohse242.000$330kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dustan Mohr272.000$315kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Cuddyer242.000$302kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Kielty262.000$178kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lew Ford260.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Prieto27–—
Michael Restovich24–—
Todd Sears27–—
Grant Balfour252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Rincon242.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Thomas252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Johnson23–—
Justin Morneau220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Ryan251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Bowen220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Micheal Nakamura26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});