RRosternomics
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Twins MIN

‹ ›

GM: Bill Smith

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.98× league · TAB +10.9
+10.9TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+12.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-3.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag10th/30
27%dead money %12th/30
0.580win %4th/30
44.9roster fWAR4th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$90Mpayroll $M13th/30

2010: made playoffs · 94–68. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDenard Span 153GBen Revere 6GJason Repko 6G
LFDelmon Young 149GJason Kubel 16GJason Repko 6G
RFJason Kubel 83GMichael Cuddyer 66GJason Repko 39G
SSJ.J. Hardy 100GNick Punto 31GAlexi Casilla 30G
2BOrlando Hudson 123GAlexi Casilla 24GMatt Tolbert 20G
3BDanny Valencia 81GNick Punto 48GBrendan Harris 27G
1BMichael Cuddyer 84GJustin Morneau 77GMatt Tolbert 4G
STARTERSFrancisco Liriano 5.6WARCarl Pavano 3.0WARScott Baker 2.4WARKevin Slowey 2.2WARBrian Duensing 1.4WAR
CJoe Mauer 112GDrew Butera 47GJose Morales 11G
DHJim Thome 78GJason Kubel 42GJoe Mauer 22G
BULLPEN★ Matt Capps 42svMatt Guerrier 24hJesse Crain 21hJose Mijares 9hRandy Flores 7hBrian Fuentes 3hJon Rauch 2hRon Mahay 2h
CJoe Mauer 112 · Drew Butera 47 · Jose Morales 11
1BMichael Cuddyer 84 · Justin Morneau 77 · Matt Tolbert 4
2BOrlando Hudson 123 · Alexi Casilla 24 · Matt Tolbert 20
3BDanny Valencia 81 · Nick Punto 48 · Brendan Harris 27
SSJ.J. Hardy 100 · Nick Punto 31 · Alexi Casilla 30
LFDelmon Young 149 · Jason Kubel 16 · Jason Repko 6
CFDenard Span 153 · Ben Revere 6 · Jason Repko 6
RFJason Kubel 83 · Michael Cuddyer 66 · Jason Repko 39
DHJim Thome 78 · Jason Kubel 42 · Joe Mauer 22
SPFrancisco Liriano 5.6 · Carl Pavano 3.0 · Scott Baker 2.4 · Kevin Slowey 2.2 · Brian Duensing 1.4
BP★ Matt Capps 42 · Matt Guerrier 24 · Jesse Crain 21 · Jose Mijares 9 · Randy Flores 7 · Brian Fuentes 3 · Jon Rauch 2 · Ron Mahay 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2010 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joe Mauer 27 FA-elig 1375.7 12.5 +0.9
Francisco Liriano 26 arb 315.6 1.6 +11.5
Justin Morneau 29 FA-elig 814.9 15.0 -3.4
Jim Thome 39 FA-elig 1083.1 1.5 +5.7
Orlando Hudson 32 FA-elig 1263.0 5.0 +2.1
Carl Pavano 34 FA-elig 323.0 7.0 -0.0
Denard Span 26 pre-arb 1532.6 0.8 +5.4
Scott Baker 28 arb 292.4 3.0 +2.8
Kevin Slowey 26 arb 312.2 0.5 +4.8
J.J. Hardy 27 arb 1012.1 5.1 -0.1
Danny Valencia 25 – 852.1 – –
Delmon Young 24 arb 1531.7 2.6 +1.5
Jason Repko 29 – 581.6 – –
Brian Duensing 27 pre-arb 531.4 0.4 +3.0
Nick Punto 32 FA-elig 881.4 4.0 -0.8
Jon Rauch 31 FA-elig 591.3 2.9 +0.1
Alexi Casilla 25 arb 691.0 0.4 +1.9
Jesse Crain 28 FA-elig 710.7 2.0 -0.4
Matt Capps↔ WSN 26 arb 270.6 1.3 +0.0
Matt Tolbert 28 – 480.4 – –
Jose Mijares 25 pre-arb 470.3 0.4 +0.2
Brian Fuentes↔ ANA 34 FA-elig 90.3 1.7 -1.1
Jeff Manship 25 – 130.2 – –
Wilson Ramos↔ WSN 22 – 70.2 0.1 +0.3
Luke Hughes 25 – 20.2 – –
Matt Fox↔ BOS 27 – 10.1 – –
Nick Blackburn 28 arb 280.1 0.8 -0.5
Matt Guerrier 31 FA-elig 740.1 3.1 -3.0
Ron Mahay 39 – 410.0 – –
Drew Butera 26 pre-arb 490.0 0.4 -0.4
Michael Cuddyer 31 FA-elig 157-0.1 9.4 -9.6
Rob Delaney 25 – 1-0.1 – –
Anthony Slama 26 – 5-0.1 – –
Jose Morales 27 arb 19-0.1 0.4 -0.7
Glen Perkins 27 – 13-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Pat Neshek 29 arb 11-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Alex Burnett 22 pre-arb 41-0.2 0.4 -0.9
Ben Revere 22 – 13-0.3 – –
Randy Flores↔ COL 34 FA-elig 11-0.4 0.1 -1.0
Trevor Plouffe 24 – 22-0.4 0.4 -1.3
Jason Kubel 28 FA-elig 143-0.7 4.1 -5.8
Brendan Harris 29 FA-elig 43-0.9 1.4 -3.7

Key additions (new vs 2009)

PlayerfWAR
Jim Thome3.1
Orlando Hudson3.0
J.J. Hardy2.1
Danny Valencia2.1
Jason Repko1.6
Matt Capps0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2009)

Player2009 fWAR
Joe Nathan1.8
Joe Crede1.7
Carlos Gómez1.0
Orlando Cabrera0.5
Brian Buscher0.3
Bob Keppel0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2010 payroll
$89.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2010, 2010–2016. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Justin Morneau297.000$15.0M$15.0M$14.0M$11.7MFREE AGENT
Joe Mauer276.000$12.5M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M$23.0M
Michael Cuddyer319.000$9.4M$10.5MFREE AGENT
Carl Pavano3412.000$7.0M$8.0M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Orlando Hudson328.000$5.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Kubel286.000$4.1M$5.2MFREE AGENT$2.0M
Nick Punto329.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Guerrier316.000$3.1MFREE AGENT$426k
Jon Rauch318.000$2.9MFREE AGENT
Jesse Crain286.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Brian Fuentes349.000$1.7MFREE AGENT
Jim Thome3919.000$1.5M$2.3MFREE AGENT
Brendan Harris296.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Randy Flores348.000$123kFREE AGENT
Ron Mahay3915.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
J.J. Hardy275.000$5.1MFREE AGENT
Scott Baker285.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Delmon Young244.000$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Liriano265.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Matt Capps265.000$1.3MFREE AGENT
Nick Blackburn283.000$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Neshek294.000$625kARB 3FREE AGENT
Glen Perkins274.000$500kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Slowey263.000$470kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alexi Casilla254.000$438kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Morales273.000$412kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Repko295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2010201120122013201420152016
Denard Span262.000$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Mijares252.000$430kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Duensing271.000$418kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Plouffe240.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Burnett220.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Butera260.000$400kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilson Ramos220.000$127kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Tolbert282.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Manship251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Slama26–—
Matt Fox27–—
Luke Hughes250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Valencia250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Delaney25–—
Ben Revere220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Twins 2010; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'MIN',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});