RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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President of baseball ops: John Mozeliak · GM: Mike Girsch

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.33× league · TAB +0.5
+0.5TAB — talent above budget14th/30
+4.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag9th/30
36%dead money %16th/30
0.556win %10th/30
38.2roster fWAR12th/30
-44surplus $M (value vs cost)22nd/30
$168Mpayroll $M7th/30

2021: made playoffs · 90–72. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFHarrison Bader 103GDylan Carlson 60GScott Hurst 6G
LFTyler O'Neill 131GJustin Williams 19GLars Nootbaar 9G
RFDylan Carlson 87GTommy Edman 41GLars Nootbaar 26G
SSPaul DeJong 107GEdmundo Sosa 71GTommy Edman 4G
2BTommy Edman 130GMatt Carpenter 34GEdmundo Sosa 25G
3BNolan Arenado 155GEdmundo Sosa 9GJosé Rondon 7G
1BPaul Goldschmidt 153GMatt Carpenter 14GAndrew Knizner 1G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 4.0WARKwang Hyun Kim 1.3WARJack Flaherty 1.2WARMiles Mikolas 0.5WARCarlos Martinez 0.5WAR
CYadier Molina 118GAndrew Knizner 57GAli Sánchez 2G
DHPaul Goldschmidt 4GNolan Arenado 2GMatt Carpenter 2G
BULLPEN★ Alex Reyes 29svGénesis Cabrera 28hGiovanny Gallegos 24hT.J. McFarland 15hLuis García 12hRyan Helsley 10hAndrew Miller 5hKodi Whitley 4h
CYadier Molina 118 · Andrew Knizner 57 · Ali Sánchez 2
1BPaul Goldschmidt 153 · Matt Carpenter 14 · Andrew Knizner 1
2BTommy Edman 130 · Matt Carpenter 34 · Edmundo Sosa 25
3BNolan Arenado 155 · Edmundo Sosa 9 · José Rondon 7
SSPaul DeJong 107 · Edmundo Sosa 71 · Tommy Edman 4
LFTyler O'Neill 131 · Justin Williams 19 · Lars Nootbaar 9
CFHarrison Bader 103 · Dylan Carlson 60 · Scott Hurst 6
RFDylan Carlson 87 · Tommy Edman 41 · Lars Nootbaar 26
DHPaul Goldschmidt 4 · Nolan Arenado 2 · Matt Carpenter 2
SPAdam Wainwright 4.0 · Kwang Hyun Kim 1.3 · Jack Flaherty 1.2 · Miles Mikolas 0.5 · Carlos Martinez 0.5
BP★ Alex Reyes 29 · Génesis Cabrera 28 · Giovanny Gallegos 24 · T.J. McFarland 15 · Luis García 12 · Ryan Helsley 10 · Andrew Miller 5 · Kodi Whitley 4

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Tyler O'Neill 26 pre-arb 1385.3 0.6 +16.8
Paul Goldschmidt 33 FA-elig 1584.8 26.0 -10.3
Nolan Arenado 30 FA-elig 1574.3 35.0 -21.2
Adam Wainwright 39 FA-elig 344.0 8.0 +5.0
Tommy Edman 26 pre-arb 1593.0 0.6 +9.1
Harrison Bader 27 arb 1032.9 2.0 +7.5
Dylan Carlson 22 pre-arb 1492.4 0.6 +7.2
Giovanny Gallegos 29 pre-arb 732.3 0.6 +6.8
Edmundo Sosa 25 pre-arb 1132.0 0.6 +5.8
Yadier Molina 38 FA-elig 1211.5 9.0 -4.1
Paul DeJong 27 arb 1131.3 4.2 -0.0
Kwang Hyun Kim 32 pre-arb 271.3 4.0 +0.1
Jack Flaherty 25 arb 171.2 3.9 +0.1
Génesis Cabrera 24 pre-arb 711.2 0.6 +3.3
Luis García 34 arb 340.7 0.3 +2.0
Lars Nootbaar 23 – 580.6 0.3 +1.6
Carlos Martinez 29 FA-elig 160.5 11.7 -10.0
Miles Mikolas 32 FA-elig 90.5 17.0 -15.5
Kodi Whitley 26 pre-arb 250.4 0.3 +0.9
J.A. Happ↔ MIN 38 FA-elig 110.4 2.9 -1.7
Jake Woodford 24 pre-arb 260.3 0.4 +0.7
Dakota Hudson 26 pre-arb 20.3 0.6 +0.5
Ryan Helsley 26 pre-arb 510.3 0.6 +0.4
T.J. McFarland 32 FA-elig 380.3 0.4 +0.5
José Rondon 27 pre-arb 630.3 0.4 +0.5
Alex Reyes 26 arb 700.2 0.9 -0.2
Jon Lester↔ WSN 37 FA-elig 120.2 0.5 -0.0
Johan Oviedo 23 pre-arb 140.1 0.2 -0.0
Austin Dean 27 pre-arb 220.0 0.1 -0.0
Angel Rondón 23 – 20.0 0.0 +0.0
Ali Sánchez 24 pre-arb 20.0 0.1 -0.0
Jordan Hicks 24 arb 100.0 0.9 -0.8
Brandon Waddell↔ BAL 27 pre-arb 40.0 0.1 -0.0
Bernardo Flores Jr. 25 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Seth Elledge 25 pre-arb 11-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Roel Ramírez 26 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Andrew Miller 36 FA-elig 40-0.0 12.0 -12.1
John Gant↔ MIN 28 arb 25-0.0 1.3 -1.5
Brandon Dickson 36 – 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Justin Miller↔ WSN 34 arb 18-0.1 0.2 -0.4
Scott Hurst 25 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Junior Fernández 24 pre-arb 18-0.1 0.3 -0.7
Tyler Webb 30 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Wade LeBlanc↔ BAL 36 FA-elig 12-0.2 0.5 -1.0
John Nogowski↔ PIT 28 – 19-0.3 0.1 -1.0
Matt Carpenter 35 FA-elig 130-0.3 18.5 -19.5
Max Moroff 28 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.4 -1.5
Daniel Ponce de Leon 29 – 24-0.5 0.5 -2.1
Lane Thomas↔ WSN 25 – 32-0.5 0.2 -1.8
Justin Williams 25 pre-arb 51-0.7 0.2 -2.4
Andrew Knizner 26 pre-arb 63-1.0 0.6 -3.8

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Nolan Arenado4.3
Edmundo Sosa2.0
Luis García0.7
Lars Nootbaar0.6
Miles Mikolas0.5
J.A. Happ0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Kolten Wong1.1
Brad Miller0.7
Austin Gomber0.5
Rob Kaminsky0.0
Jesus Cruz0.0
Nabil Crismatt-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$168.5M
2022 guaranteed
$23.4M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Nolan Arenado307.155$35.0M$23.4MOPT-OUT$8.0MOPT-OUT$24.0M$21.0M$5.0M$6.0M
Paul Goldschmidt339.059$26.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Carpenter359.012$18.5MFREE AGENT
Andrew Miller3612.062$12.0MFREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez297.073$11.7MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina3816.123$9.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright3915.027$8.0MFREE AGENT
J.A. Happ3812.047$2.9MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester3714.075$520kFREE AGENT
Wade LeBlanc367.131$467kFREE AGENT
T.J. McFarland326.164$425kFREE AGENT
Luis García348.000$264kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Miles Mikolas324.037$17.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul DeJong273.127$4.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty253.006$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harrison Bader273.030$2.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Gant284.004$1.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Reyes263.043$900kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks243.000$863kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Miller343.083$221kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Kwang Hyun Kim321.000$4.0MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Edman261.114$596kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dakota Hudson262.066$596kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler O'Neill262.059$595kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giovanny Gallegos292.085$594kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Helsley261.105$582kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera241.027$581kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Knizner261.021$579kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson220.094$577kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edmundo Sosa250.140$576kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Ponce de Leon29–$545k
Max Moroff281.053$436kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Rondon271.056$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Woodford240.167$354kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kodi Whitley261.000$347kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Fernández241.005$319kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Nootbaar230.000$264kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Williams250.058$243kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Webb302.076$204kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Oviedo230.092$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lane Thomas251.068$153kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Elledge250.108$147kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Dean271.124$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Nogowski28–$70k
Ali Sánchez240.047$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Waddell270.067$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Hurst25–$37k
Angel Rondón230.000$31kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Dickson36–$18k
Roel Ramírez260.033$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bernardo Flores Jr.250.036$3kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'STL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});