RRosternomics
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Cardinals STL

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President of baseball ops: John Mozeliak · GM: Mike Girsch

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.15× league · TAB +9.6
+9.6TAB — talent above budget9th/30
+9.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)10th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-3.6dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
21%dead money %4th/30
0.574win %6th/30
45.5roster fWAR7th/30
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$165Mpayroll $M11th/30

2022: made playoffs · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFDylan Carlson 73GTyler O'Neill 21GBen DeLuzio 18G
LFTyler O'Neill 83GCorey Dickerson 60GJuan Yepez 23G
RFLars Nootbaar 79GDylan Carlson 62GBrendan Donovan 20G
SSTommy Edman 80GPaul DeJong 75GBrendan Donovan 7G
2BTommy Edman 89GNolan Gorman 68GBrendan Donovan 38G
3BNolan Arenado 131GBrendan Donovan 31GTommy Edman 8G
1BPaul Goldschmidt 128GAlbert Pujols 22GBrendan Donovan 16G
STARTERSAdam Wainwright 2.9WARMiles Mikolas 2.8WARJose Quintana 1.8WARJordan Montgomery 1.4WARDakota Hudson 1.1WAR
CAndrew Knizner 90GYadier Molina 77GIván Herrera 11G
DHAlbert Pujols 68GPaul Goldschmidt 23GCorey Dickerson 20G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Helsley 19svGénesis Cabrera 13hGiovanny Gallegos 12hChris Stratton 8hNick Wittgren 4hPacky Naughton 3hT.J. McFarland 2hJake Woodford 1h
CAndrew Knizner 90 · Yadier Molina 77 · Iván Herrera 11
1BPaul Goldschmidt 128 · Albert Pujols 22 · Brendan Donovan 16
2BTommy Edman 89 · Nolan Gorman 68 · Brendan Donovan 38
3BNolan Arenado 131 · Brendan Donovan 31 · Tommy Edman 8
SSTommy Edman 80 · Paul DeJong 75 · Brendan Donovan 7
LFTyler O'Neill 83 · Corey Dickerson 60 · Juan Yepez 23
CFDylan Carlson 73 · Tyler O'Neill 21 · Ben DeLuzio 18
RFLars Nootbaar 79 · Dylan Carlson 62 · Brendan Donovan 20
DHAlbert Pujols 68 · Paul Goldschmidt 23 · Corey Dickerson 20
SPAdam Wainwright 2.9 · Miles Mikolas 2.8 · Jose Quintana 1.8 · Jordan Montgomery 1.4 · Dakota Hudson 1.1
BP★ Ryan Helsley 19 · Génesis Cabrera 13 · Giovanny Gallegos 12 · Chris Stratton 8 · Nick Wittgren 4 · Packy Naughton 3 · T.J. McFarland 2 · Jake Woodford 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nolan Arenado 31 FA-elig 1487.2 35.0 -8.5
Paul Goldschmidt 34 FA-elig 1516.8 26.0 -0.9
Tommy Edman 27 pre-arb 1535.4 0.7 +18.9
Adam Wainwright 40 FA-elig 322.9 17.5 -6.9
Miles Mikolas 33 FA-elig 332.8 17.0 -6.7
Lars Nootbaar 24 pre-arb 1082.6 0.5 +9.1
Brendan Donovan 25 – 1262.6 0.6 +8.9
Ryan Helsley 27 pre-arb 542.0 0.7 +6.6
Albert Pujols 42 FA-elig 1091.9 2.5 +4.4
Dylan Carlson 23 pre-arb 1281.9 0.7 +6.2
Jose Quintana↔ PIT 33 FA-elig 121.8 0.8 +5.9
Tyler O'Neill 27 arb 961.5 3.4 +2.2
Harrison Bader↔ NYY 28 arb 721.4 4.4 +0.9
Jordan Montgomery↔ NYY 29 arb 111.4 2.1 +3.0
Giovanny Gallegos 30 arb 571.4 2.4 +2.5
Dakota Hudson 27 arb 271.1 1.1 +2.9
Steven Matz 31 FA-elig 150.7 8.5 -6.1
Corey Dickerson 33 FA-elig 970.6 5.0 -2.7
Andre Pallante 23 – 470.6 0.7 +1.5
Jake Woodford 25 pre-arb 270.6 0.4 +1.7
Packy Naughton 26 pre-arb 260.4 0.4 +1.2
Jordan Hicks 25 arb 350.3 0.9 +0.2
Chris Stratton↔ PIT 31 FA-elig 200.3 0.9 +0.2
Yadier Molina 39 FA-elig 800.1 10.0 -9.5
Johan Oviedo↔ PIT 24 – 140.1 0.2 +0.3
Zack Thompson 24 – 220.1 0.4 +0.0
Nolan Gorman 22 – 890.1 0.5 -0.1
Ben DeLuzio 27 – 220.1 0.1 +0.2
Nick Wittgren 31 FA-elig 290.1 1.2 -0.9
Angel Rondón 24 – 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Edmundo Sosa↔ PHI 26 – 530.0 0.3 -0.2
Jake Walsh 26 – 30.0 0.0 +0.1
Paul DeJong 28 arb 770.0 6.2 -6.1
Matthew Liberatore 22 – 90.0 0.1 -0.0
Juan Yepez 24 – 760.0 0.5 -0.4
Jack Flaherty 26 arb 90.0 5.0 -5.0
Cory Spangenberg 31 arb 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Conner Capel↔ OAK 25 – 9-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Andrew Knizner 27 pre-arb 97-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Kramer Robertson 27 – 2-0.1 0.7 -1.0
JoJo Romero↔ PHI 25 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.4 -0.7
James Naile 29 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Aaron Brooks 32 pre-arb 5-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Kodi Whitley 27 pre-arb 14-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Iván Herrera 22 – 11-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Alec Burleson 23 – 16-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Junior Fernández↔ PIT 25 – 13-0.3 0.1 -1.2
T.J. McFarland 33 FA-elig 28-0.3 2.5 -3.7
Austin Romine↔ ANA 33 FA-elig 11-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Drew VerHagen 31 FA-elig 19-0.6 2.5 -4.7
Génesis Cabrera 25 pre-arb 39-0.8 0.6 -3.4

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Brendan Donovan2.6
Albert Pujols1.9
Jose Quintana1.8
Jordan Montgomery1.4
Steven Matz0.7
Corey Dickerson0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Kwang Hyun Kim1.3
Luis García0.7
Carlos Martinez0.5
J.A. Happ0.4
José Rondon0.3
Jon Lester0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$165.0M
2023 guaranteed
$8.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Nolan Arenado318.155$35.0MOPT-OUT$8.0MOPT-OUT$24.0M$21.0M$5.0M$6.0MFREE AGENT
Paul Goldschmidt3410.059$26.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Wainwright4016.027$17.5MFREE AGENT
Yadier Molina3917.123$10.0MFREE AGENT
Steven Matz316.099$8.5MFREE AGENT
Corey Dickerson338.101$5.0MFREE AGENT
Albert Pujols4221.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
T.J. McFarland339.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Nick Wittgren316.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jose Quintana3310.000$750kFREE AGENT
Austin Romine338.044$53kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Miles Mikolas335.037$17.0MFREE AGENT
Paul DeJong284.127$6.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Flaherty264.006$5.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Harrison Bader284.030$4.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler O'Neill273.059$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew VerHagen313.066$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Giovanny Gallegos303.085$2.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Montgomery294.153$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dakota Hudson273.066$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks254.000$938kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Stratton314.100$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cory Spangenberg314.041$15kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Tommy Edman272.114$723kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Helsley272.105$722kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Knizner272.021$718kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Carlson231.104$703kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kramer Robertson27–$700k
Andre Pallante230.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan Donovan250.000$631kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera252.040$565kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Nootbaar240.087$539kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Yepez240.000$481kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Gorman220.000$469kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Packy Naughton260.046$438kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Woodford251.115$436kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JoJo Romero251.117$372kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Thompson240.000$369kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edmundo Sosa261.140$310kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Brooks322.102$231kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kodi Whitley271.115$184kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johan Oviedo240.156$151kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Fernández251.112$141kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben DeLuzio27–$131k
James Naile290.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Burleson230.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván Herrera220.000$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matthew Liberatore220.000$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Walsh26–$46k
Conner Capel250.000$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Angel Rondón240.011$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Cardinals 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'STL',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});