RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

‹ ›

GM: Erik Neander

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 13 in this regime · payroll 0.46× league · TAB +24.8
+24.8TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+23.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars10th/30
-1.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag1st/30
14%dead money %4th/30
0.593win %7th/30
49.7roster fWAR5th/30
+102surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$59Mpayroll $M30th/30

2019: made playoffs · 96–66. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKevin Kiermaier 125GGuillermo Heredia 41GAvisaíl García 12G
LFTommy Pham 123GAustin Meadows 34GGuillermo Heredia 14G
RFAvisaíl García 92GAustin Meadows 57GGuillermo Heredia 28G
SSWilly Adames 152GDaniel Robertson 16GJoey Wendle 10G
2BEric Sogard 74GBrandon Lowe 69GJoey Wendle 48G
3BYandy Díaz 50GMatt Duffy 46GDaniel Robertson 43G
1BJi Man Choi 103GJesús Aguilar 75GYandy Díaz 22G
STARTERSCharlie Morton 6.0WARBlake Snell 2.7WARRyan Yarbrough 2.6WARTyler Glasnow 2.3WARYonny Chirinos 1.4WAR
CMike Zunino 89GTravis d'Arnaud 85GMichael Pérez 20G
DHAustin Meadows 44GAvisaíl García 24GTommy Pham 21G
BULLPEN★ Emilio Pagán 20svChaz Roe 25hNick Anderson 16hColin Poche 16hOliver Drake 13hJosé Alvarado 8hPete Fairbanks 3hJalen Beeks 2h
CMike Zunino 89 · Travis d'Arnaud 85 · Michael Pérez 20
1BJi Man Choi 103 · Jesús Aguilar 75 · Yandy Díaz 22
2BEric Sogard 74 · Brandon Lowe 69 · Joey Wendle 48
3BYandy Díaz 50 · Matt Duffy 46 · Daniel Robertson 43
SSWilly Adames 152 · Daniel Robertson 16 · Joey Wendle 10
LFTommy Pham 123 · Austin Meadows 34 · Guillermo Heredia 14
CFKevin Kiermaier 125 · Guillermo Heredia 41 · Avisaíl García 12
RFAvisaíl García 92 · Austin Meadows 57 · Guillermo Heredia 28
DHAustin Meadows 44 · Avisaíl García 24 · Tommy Pham 21
SPCharlie Morton 6.0 · Blake Snell 2.7 · Ryan Yarbrough 2.6 · Tyler Glasnow 2.3 · Yonny Chirinos 1.4
BP★ Emilio Pagán 20 · Chaz Roe 25 · Nick Anderson 16 · Colin Poche 16 · Oliver Drake 13 · José Alvarado 8 · Pete Fairbanks 3 · Jalen Beeks 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2019 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Charlie Morton 35 FA-elig 336.0 15.0 +4.5
Austin Meadows 24 pre-arb 1384.3 0.6 +13.4
Tommy Pham 31 arb 1453.4 4.1 +7.1
Willy Adames 23 pre-arb 1523.3 0.6 +10.2
Blake Snell 26 arb 232.7 1.6 +7.2
Ryan Yarbrough 27 pre-arb 282.6 0.6 +8.1
Kevin Kiermaier 29 FA-elig 1292.5 8.2 +0.1
Tyler Glasnow 25 arb 122.3 0.6 +6.9
Brandon Lowe 24 pre-arb 821.9 1.0 +5.4
Travis d'Arnaud↔ LAD 30 FA-elig 921.9 3.1 +3.2
Avisaíl García 28 FA-elig 1251.9 3.5 +2.8
Ji Man Choi 28 arb 1271.5 0.8 +4.1
Yandy Díaz 27 pre-arb 791.5 0.6 +4.3
Emilio Pagán 28 pre-arb 661.5 0.5 +4.3
Yonny Chirinos 25 pre-arb 261.4 0.6 +3.9
Ryne Stanek↔ MIA 27 pre-arb 411.0 0.4 +3.0
Nick Anderson↔ MIA 28 pre-arb 231.0 0.2 +3.2
Diego Castillo 25 pre-arb 651.0 0.6 +2.6
Chaz Roe 32 FA-elig 710.9 1.3 +1.6
Brendan McKay 23 – 180.8 0.2 +2.4
Andrew Kittredge 29 pre-arb 370.6 0.3 +1.7
Guillermo Heredia 28 arb 890.6 0.8 +1.2
Colin Poche 25 – 510.6 0.3 +1.6
Eric Sogard↔ TOR 33 FA-elig 370.6 0.1 +1.8
Mike Zunino 28 FA-elig 900.6 4.4 -2.5
Oliver Drake 32 arb 500.5 0.6 +1.2
Joey Wendle 29 arb 750.5 0.6 +1.1
Trevor Richards↔ MIA 26 pre-arb 70.4 0.1 +1.3
Mike Brosseau 25 – 510.4 – –
Michael Pérez 26 pre-arb 220.3 0.6 +0.4
Jalen Beeks 25 pre-arb 340.3 0.6 +0.3
Pete Fairbanks↔ TEX 25 – 130.3 0.1 +0.8
Daniel Robertson 25 pre-arb 740.2 0.6 +0.2
Austin Pruitt 29 pre-arb 140.2 0.2 +0.5
Hunter Wood↔ CLE 25 – 190.2 0.1 +0.5
Wilmer Font↔ NYM 29 FA-elig 100.2 0.1 +0.4
Cole Sulser 29 – 70.1 0.1 +0.4
José Alvarado 24 pre-arb 350.1 0.6 -0.1
Jesús Aguilar↔ MIL 29 arb 370.1 0.2 +0.2
Hoby Milner 28 pre-arb 40.1 0.1 +0.2
Nathaniel Lowe 23 – 500.1 0.2 +0.1
Christian Arroyo 24 – 160.1 0.4 -0.1
Anthony Banda 25 pre-arb 30.1 0.6 -0.3
Matt Duffy 28 arb 460.1 2.7 -2.5
Johnny Davis 29 pre-arb 80.0 0.1 +0.1
Casey Sadler↔ LAD 28 – 90.0 0.1 +0.1
José De León 26 arb 30.0 0.6 -0.5
Ian Gibaut↔ TEX 25 – 10.0 0.0 -0.0
Anthony Bemboom↔ ANA 29 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Adam Kolarek↔ LAD 30 pre-arb 54-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Nick Ciuffo 24 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Aaron Slegers 26 pre-arb 1-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Ricardo Pinto 25 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Jake Faria↔ MIL 25 – 7-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Andrew Velazquez↔ CLE 24 – 10-0.2 0.1 -0.7
Kean Wong↔ ANA 24 – 6-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Erik Kratz↔ SFG 39 – 6-0.3 0.1 -0.9

Key additions (new vs 2018)

PlayerfWAR
Charlie Morton6.0
Travis d'Arnaud1.9
Avisaíl García1.9
Yandy Díaz1.5
Emilio Pagán1.5
Nick Anderson1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2018)

Player2018 fWAR
Mallex Smith3.2
Wilson Ramos2.4
C.J. Cron2.3
Chris Archer1.8
Nathan Eovaldi0.7
Denard Span0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2019 payroll
$59.2M
2020 guaranteed
$0.6M

What the front office was committed to as of 2019, 2019–2025. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2019; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Charlie Morton3510.009$15.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lowe240.058$1.0M$556k$2.5M$4.0M$5.2M$8.8M$10.5MCLUB
Eric Sogard336.139$64kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Kevin Kiermaier294.131$8.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zunino284.165$4.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Pham313.107$4.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Avisaíl García285.166$3.5MFREE AGENT
Travis d'Arnaud305.044$3.1MFREE AGENT
Matt Duffy284.059$2.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chaz Roe323.094$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ji Man Choi283.000$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José De León263.000$558kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Kratz395.026$83kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (44)

PlayerAgeSvc2019202020212022202320242025
Blake Snell262.072$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Heredia282.052$782kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Alvarado241.093$571kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wendle291.088$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Robertson251.156$570kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Glasnow251.158$567kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake322.090$566kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Yarbrough271.000$563kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Adames230.105$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonny Chirinos250.137$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo250.118$562kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yandy Díaz270.122$558kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Meadows240.074$557kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Banda250.050$557kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Pérez260.067$557kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jalen Beeks250.070$556kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Emilio Pagán281.096$492kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Kolarek300.122$374kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek271.038$367kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Arroyo240.103$364kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Poche250.000$340kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge290.138$310kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathaniel Lowe230.000$206kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Pruitt291.060$188kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Anderson280.000$188kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesús Aguilar292.082$180kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brendan McKay230.000$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards260.142$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Wood250.104$126kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wilmer Font291.085$117kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hoby Milner280.146$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cole Sulser290.000$78kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Fairbanks250.000$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Davis290.019$57kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Sadler280.111$56kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Velazquez240.029$54kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Faria251.107$48kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kean Wong240.000$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricardo Pinto250.087$24kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Bemboom290.000$23kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Ciuffo240.000$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Gibaut250.000$10kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Slegers260.136$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Brosseau250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2019; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TBR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});