RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

‹ ›

GM: Erik Neander

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 14 in this regime · payroll 0.45× league · TAB +18.9
+18.9TAB — talent above budget
+36.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/30
-1.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag3rd/30
28%dead money %6th/30
0.667win %2nd/30
16.1roster fWAR8th/30
+55surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$53Mpayroll $M27th/30

2020: won pennant · 40–20. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKevin Kiermaier 46GManuel Margot 21GBrett Phillips 15G
LFAustin Meadows 23GManuel Margot 18GYoshi Tsutsugo 16G
RFHunter Renfroe 39GManuel Margot 15GBrett Phillips 13G
SSWilly Adames 53GJoey Wendle 10G
2BBrandon Lowe 44GJoey Wendle 20GMike Brosseau 9G
3BJoey Wendle 28GYandy Díaz 25GYoshi Tsutsugo 14G
1BJi Man Choi 38GNathaniel Lowe 15GMike Brosseau 12G
STARTERSTyler Glasnow 1.1WARRyan Yarbrough 1.0WARCharlie Morton 0.9WARBlake Snell 0.6WARJosh Fleming 0.3WAR
CMichael Pérez 38GMike Zunino 28GKevan Smith 16G
DHYoshi Tsutsugo 22GAustin Meadows 9GYandy Díaz 7G
BULLPEN★ Nick Anderson 6svPete Fairbanks 7hDiego Castillo 5hRyan Thompson 4hAaron Loup 4hJalen Beeks 3hAaron Slegers 2hJohn Curtiss 0h
CMichael Pérez 38 · Mike Zunino 28 · Kevan Smith 16
1BJi Man Choi 38 · Nathaniel Lowe 15 · Mike Brosseau 12
2BBrandon Lowe 44 · Joey Wendle 20 · Mike Brosseau 9
3BJoey Wendle 28 · Yandy Díaz 25 · Yoshi Tsutsugo 14
SSWilly Adames 53 · Joey Wendle 10
LFAustin Meadows 23 · Manuel Margot 18 · Yoshi Tsutsugo 16
CFKevin Kiermaier 46 · Manuel Margot 21 · Brett Phillips 15
RFHunter Renfroe 39 · Manuel Margot 15 · Brett Phillips 13
DHYoshi Tsutsugo 22 · Austin Meadows 9 · Yandy Díaz 7
SPTyler Glasnow 1.1 · Ryan Yarbrough 1.0 · Charlie Morton 0.9 · Blake Snell 0.6 · Josh Fleming 0.3
BP★ Nick Anderson 6 · Pete Fairbanks 7 · Diego Castillo 5 · Ryan Thompson 4 · Aaron Loup 4 · Jalen Beeks 3 · Aaron Slegers 2 · John Curtiss 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2020 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brandon Lowe 25 pre-arb 562.2 1.5 +14.3
Kevin Kiermaier 30 FA-elig 491.4 10.2 +0.0
Mike Brosseau 26 – 371.3 – –
Willy Adames 24 pre-arb 541.2 0.2 +8.2
Tyler Glasnow 26 arb 111.1 2.0 +6.3
Joey Wendle 30 pre-arb 501.1 0.2 +8.0
Ryan Yarbrough 28 pre-arb 111.0 0.2 +6.9
Nick Anderson 29 pre-arb 191.0 0.2 +6.8
Charlie Morton 36 FA-elig 90.9 15.0 -8.5
Randy Arozarena 25 pre-arb 230.8 0.1 +5.4
Jalen Beeks 26 pre-arb 120.7 0.2 +5.1
Yandy Díaz 28 pre-arb 340.6 0.2 +4.0
Pete Fairbanks 26 pre-arb 270.6 0.2 +3.9
Blake Snell 27 arb 110.6 7.6 -3.5
Manuel Margot 25 arb 470.5 0.9 +2.7
Aaron Slegers 27 pre-arb 110.5 0.1 +3.4
John Curtiss 27 pre-arb 170.4 0.2 +2.7
Chaz Roe 33 FA-elig 100.3 2.2 +0.3
Josh Fleming 24 – 70.3 0.1 +2.3
Brett Phillips↔ KCR 26 pre-arb 170.3 0.1 +1.8
Kevan Smith 32 arb 170.2 0.1 +1.4
Aaron Loup 32 FA-elig 240.2 0.1 +1.3
Andrew Kittredge 30 pre-arb 80.2 0.2 +1.0
Nathaniel Lowe 24 pre-arb 210.2 0.1 +1.1
Ryan Thompson 28 – 250.1 0.2 +0.6
Ryan Sherriff 30 pre-arb 100.1 0.1 +0.7
Trevor Richards 27 pre-arb 90.1 0.1 +0.6
Yonny Chirinos 26 pre-arb 30.1 0.2 +0.4
Yoshi Tsutsugo 28 – 510.1 – –
Cody Reed↔ CIN 27 pre-arb 20.1 0.0 +0.4
Austin Meadows 25 pre-arb 360.0 0.2 -0.1
Brian O'Grady 28 pre-arb 20.0 0.0 +0.1
Ji Man Choi 29 – 420.0 0.3 -0.3
José A. Martínez↔ CHC 31 – 24-0.0 – –
Diego Castillo 26 pre-arb 22-0.0 0.2 -0.6
José Alvarado 25 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.2 -0.9
Oliver Drake 33 arb 11-0.1 1.0 -1.9
Hunter Renfroe 28 arb 42-0.1 3.3 -4.3
Anthony Banda 26 – 4-0.2 0.1 -1.3
Sean Gilmartin 30 pre-arb 2-0.2 0.0 -1.5
Mike Zunino 29 FA-elig 28-0.2 4.5 -6.2
Michael Pérez 27 pre-arb 38-0.3 0.2 -2.4
Edgar García 23 pre-arb 4-0.4 0.0 -3.1

Key additions (new vs 2019)

PlayerfWAR
Randy Arozarena0.8
Manuel Margot0.5
John Curtiss0.4
Josh Fleming0.3
Brett Phillips0.3
Kevan Smith0.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2019)

Player2019 fWAR
Tommy Pham3.4
Travis d'Arnaud1.9
Avisaíl García1.9
Emilio Pagán1.5
Ryne Stanek1.0
Guillermo Heredia0.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2020 payroll
$52.8M
2021 guaranteed
$2.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2020, 2020–2026. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2020; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Charlie Morton3611.009$15.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lowe251.058$1.5M$2.5M$4.0M$5.2M$8.8M$10.5MCLUB$11.5MCLUB
Aaron Loup327.040$100kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Kevin Kiermaier305.131$10.2MFREE AGENT
Blake Snell273.072$7.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Zunino295.165$4.5MFREE AGENT
Chaz Roe334.094$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake333.045$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Margot253.012$917kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ji Man Choi294.000$315kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevan Smith323.031$149kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José A. Martínez314.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2020202120222023202420252026
Hunter Renfroe282.165$3.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Glasnow262.158$2.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Adames241.105$215kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Meadows251.074$214kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Yarbrough281.147$214kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Anderson291.000$214kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonny Chirinos261.137$214kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yandy Díaz281.122$214kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo261.118$213kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Wendle302.088$213kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Alvarado252.088$212kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jalen Beeks261.070$212kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge301.070$212kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Pérez271.000$210kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Fairbanks260.057$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Thompson280.000$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Curtiss270.069$156kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards271.139$149kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Slegers270.136$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fleming240.000$115kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Arozarena250.034$90kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sherriff300.040$84kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathaniel Lowe240.070$84kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Phillips261.012$54kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Banda261.050$53kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Edgar García230.114$37kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian O'Grady280.042$22kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Reed271.072$18kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gilmartin301.133$16kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoshi Tsutsugo280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Brosseau261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2020; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

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payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TBR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});