RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

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President of baseball ops: Erik Neander · GM: Peter Bendix

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 16 in this regime · payroll 0.53× league · TAB +26.4
+26.4TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+25.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-3.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/30
27%dead money %10th/30
0.611win %4th/30
53.0roster fWAR2nd/30
+129surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$81Mpayroll $M26th/30

2023: made playoffs · 99–63. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJose Siri 100GManuel Margot 55GJosh Lowe 14G
LFRandy Arozarena 139GLuke Raley 18GRaimel Tapia 16G
RFJosh Lowe 101GManuel Margot 43GLuke Raley 36G
SSWander Franco 111GTaylor Walls 32GOsleivis Basabe 20G
2BBrandon Lowe 105GTaylor Walls 37GVidal Bruján 15G
3BIsaac Paredes 116GTaylor Walls 39GCurtis Mead 19G
1BYandy Díaz 118GLuke Raley 35GIsaac Paredes 25G
STARTERSZach Eflin 4.9WARTyler Glasnow 3.2WARShane McClanahan 1.9WARDrew Rasmussen 1.5WARShawn Armstrong 1.3WAR
CChristian Bethancourt 102GFrancisco Mejía 50GRené Pinto 38G
DHHarold Ramírez 91GJosh Lowe 21GLuke Raley 18G
BULLPEN★ Pete Fairbanks 25svColin Poche 22hRobert Stephenson 15hKevin Kelly 12hJason Adam 11hChris Devenski 10hJake Diekman 8hErasmo Ramírez 3h
CChristian Bethancourt 102 · Francisco Mejía 50 · René Pinto 38
1BYandy Díaz 118 · Luke Raley 35 · Isaac Paredes 25
2BBrandon Lowe 105 · Taylor Walls 37 · Vidal Bruján 15
3BIsaac Paredes 116 · Taylor Walls 39 · Curtis Mead 19
SSWander Franco 111 · Taylor Walls 32 · Osleivis Basabe 20
LFRandy Arozarena 139 · Luke Raley 18 · Raimel Tapia 16
CFJose Siri 100 · Manuel Margot 55 · Josh Lowe 14
RFJosh Lowe 101 · Manuel Margot 43 · Luke Raley 36
DHHarold Ramírez 91 · Josh Lowe 21 · Luke Raley 18
SPZach Eflin 4.9 · Tyler Glasnow 3.2 · Shane McClanahan 1.9 · Drew Rasmussen 1.5 · Shawn Armstrong 1.3
BP★ Pete Fairbanks 25 · Colin Poche 22 · Robert Stephenson 15 · Kevin Kelly 12 · Jason Adam 11 · Chris Devenski 10 · Jake Diekman 8 · Erasmo Ramírez 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yandy Díaz 31 FA-elig 1375.0 6.0 +13.8
Zach Eflin 29 FA-elig 314.9 11.0 +8.4
Wander Franco 22 pre-arb 1124.8 2.5 +16.6
Isaac Paredes 24 arb 1434.2 0.7 +16.0
Josh Lowe 25 pre-arb 1353.4 0.7 +12.8
Tyler Glasnow 29 FA-elig 213.2 5.3 +7.4
Randy Arozarena 28 arb 1513.1 4.2 +8.2
Brandon Lowe 28 arb 1092.9 5.2 +6.1
Jose Siri 27 pre-arb 1012.6 0.7 +9.6
Luke Raley 28 pre-arb 1182.3 0.7 +8.5
Shane McClanahan 26 pre-arb 211.9 0.7 +6.6
Drew Rasmussen 27 arb 81.5 0.7 +5.0
Harold Ramírez 28 arb 1221.4 2.2 +3.4
Pete Fairbanks 29 arb 491.3 3.7 +1.7
Shawn Armstrong 32 FA-elig 391.3 1.2 +4.0
Kevin Kelly 25 – 571.2 0.7 +4.1
Robert Stephenson↔ PIT 30 FA-elig 421.2 1.2 +3.4
Zack Littell↔ BOS 27 arb 261.2 0.5 +4.1
Colin Poche 29 arb 661.1 1.2 +3.3
Aaron Civale↔ CLE 28 arb 101.0 1.1 +2.7
Taj Bradley 22 – 230.8 0.4 +2.9
Taylor Walls 26 pre-arb 990.7 0.7 +2.2
Jeffrey Springs 30 arb 30.7 4.0 -1.1
Jake Diekman↔ CHW 36 FA-elig 500.6 3.6 -1.3
Manuel Margot 28 FA-elig 990.5 7.0 -5.1
Jalen Beeks 29 arb 300.5 1.4 +0.5
Jason Adam 31 arb 560.4 1.8 -0.1
Christian Bethancourt 31 FA-elig 1040.4 1.4 +0.1
Curtis Mead 22 – 240.3 0.2 +1.0
René Pinto 26 pre-arb 390.2 0.3 +0.6
Jacob Lopez 25 – 40.2 0.0 +0.8
Chris Devenski↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 90.2 0.2 +0.6
Elvin Rodríguez 25 – 10.2 0.0 +0.7
Tristan Gray 27 – 20.2 0.0 +0.6
Andrew Kittredge 33 FA-elig 140.1 2.1 -1.5
Jonathan Aranda 25 pre-arb 340.1 0.2 +0.2
Braden Bristo↔ DET 28 – 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Zack Burdi 28 – 30.1 0.0 +0.2
Raimel Tapia↔ BOS 29 FA-elig 50.1 0.2 +0.1
Junior Caminero 19 – 70.1 0.0 +0.2
Chase Anderson↔ COL 35 FA-elig 20.1 0.1 +0.2
José Lopez 24 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Calvin Faucher 27 pre-arb 170.0 0.7 -0.6
Heath Hembree 34 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Joe La Sorsa↔ WSN 25 – 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Hector Perez 27 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Garrett Cleavinger 29 arb 15-0.1 0.7 -1.0
Ryan Thompson↔ ARI 31 arb 18-0.1 0.6 -0.9
Luis Patiño↔ CHW 23 – 2-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Francisco Mejía 27 FA-elig 50-0.1 2.2 -2.6
Erasmo Ramírez↔ WSN 33 FA-elig 15-0.1 0.4 -0.9
Javy Guerra↔ MIL 27 arb 9-0.2 0.4 -1.1
Osleivis Basabe 22 – 31-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Trevor Kelley 30 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.1 -1.2
Cooper Criswell 26 pre-arb 10-0.3 0.1 -1.3
Yonny Chirinos↔ ATL 29 arb 15-0.4 1.0 -2.4
Josh Fleming 27 arb 12-0.5 0.7 -2.8
Vidal Bruján 25 pre-arb 37-0.7 0.2 -3.0

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Zach Eflin4.9
Kevin Kelly1.2
Robert Stephenson1.2
Zack Littell1.2
Aaron Civale1.0
Taj Bradley0.8

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Corey Kluber3.1
Ji Man Choi1.0
Brooks Raley1.0
Kevin Kiermaier1.0
J.P. Feyereisen1.0
Yu Chang0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$81.2M
2024 guaranteed
$16.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Zach Eflin296.018$11.0MFREE AGENT
Manuel Margot286.012$7.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lowe284.058$5.2M$8.8M$10.5MCLUB$11.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Jeffrey Springs304.055$4.0M$5.2M$10.5M$10.5M$15.0MCLUBFREE AGENT
Jake Diekman3610.050$3.6MFREE AGENT
Wander Franco221.104$2.5M$2.5M$8.5M$15.5M$22.5M$25.5M$25.5M
Erasmo Ramírez3311.000$395kFREE AGENT
Chris Devenski326.036$171kFREE AGENT
Chase Anderson357.161$58kFREE AGENT
Heath Hembree347.096$4kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Yandy Díaz314.122$6.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Glasnow295.158$5.3MFREE AGENT
Pete Fairbanks293.057$3.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harold Ramírez283.142$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía274.062$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge334.070$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jalen Beeks294.070$1.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Christian Bethancourt313.038$1.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stephenson305.049$1.2MFREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong324.113$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Poche293.109$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Civale283.058$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonny Chirinos294.137$956kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Thompson313.000$581kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Littell273.067$510kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Raimel Tapia295.020$156kFREE AGENT
Hector Perez274.006$8kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (31)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Randy Arozarena282.129$4.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Adam312.132$1.8MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Rasmussen272.111$740kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane McClanahan261.158$737kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaac Paredes241.160$735kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Siri271.015$732kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Walls261.092$728kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fleming272.008$727kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Cleavinger291.060$725kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lowe250.093$723kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Raley280.106$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Calvin Faucher270.070$722kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Kelly250.000$720kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taj Bradley220.000$434kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra272.110$384kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
René Pinto260.077$279kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Curtis Mead220.000$225kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Aranda250.047$205kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Osleivis Basabe220.000$190kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Bruján250.085$178kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Kelley300.168$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Criswell260.119$70kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jacob Lopez250.000$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junior Caminero190.000$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Patiño232.026$26kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe La Sorsa25–$20k
Zack Burdi280.113$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tristan Gray270.000$8kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Elvin Rodríguez250.000$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Braden Bristo28–$4k
José Lopez24–$4k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TBR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});