RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Erik Neander · GM: Peter Bendix

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 15 in this regime · payroll 0.58× league · TAB +7.9
+7.9TAB — talent above budget10th/30
+10.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)8th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars8th/30
-4.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
40%dead money %20th/30
0.531win %12th/30
35.7roster fWAR14th/30
+46surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$84Mpayroll $M25th/30

2022: made playoffs · 86–76. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJose Siri 95GKevin Kiermaier 60GBrett Phillips 42G
LFDavid Peralta 113GRandy Arozarena 104GRoman Quinn 11G
RFManuel Margot 53GJosh Lowe 33GRandy Arozarena 25G
SSTaylor Walls 92GWander Franco 72GVidal Bruján 5G
2BBrandon Lowe 53GIsaac Paredes 43GTaylor Walls 34G
3BYandy Díaz 102GIsaac Paredes 50GTaylor Walls 25G
1BJi Man Choi 98GChristian Bethancourt 37GHarold Ramírez 32G
STARTERSShane McClanahan 3.6WARCorey Kluber 3.1WARJeffrey Springs 3.1WARDrew Rasmussen 3.0WARJalen Beeks 0.6WAR
CFrancisco Mejía 83GChristian Bethancourt 49GMike Zunino 35G
DHHarold Ramírez 52GRandy Arozarena 27GManuel Margot 16G
BULLPEN★ Colin Poche 7svBrooks Raley 25hJason Adam 22hRyan Thompson 10hJ.P. Feyereisen 7hPete Fairbanks 6hShawn Armstrong 2hCalvin Faucher 2h
CFrancisco Mejía 83 · Christian Bethancourt 49 · Mike Zunino 35
1BJi Man Choi 98 · Christian Bethancourt 37 · Harold Ramírez 32
2BBrandon Lowe 53 · Isaac Paredes 43 · Taylor Walls 34
3BYandy Díaz 102 · Isaac Paredes 50 · Taylor Walls 25
SSTaylor Walls 92 · Wander Franco 72 · Vidal Bruján 5
LFDavid Peralta 113 · Randy Arozarena 104 · Roman Quinn 11
CFJose Siri 95 · Kevin Kiermaier 60 · Brett Phillips 42
RFManuel Margot 53 · Josh Lowe 33 · Randy Arozarena 25
DHHarold Ramírez 52 · Randy Arozarena 27 · Manuel Margot 16
SPShane McClanahan 3.6 · Corey Kluber 3.1 · Jeffrey Springs 3.1 · Drew Rasmussen 3.0 · Jalen Beeks 0.6
BP★ Colin Poche 7 · Brooks Raley 25 · Jason Adam 22 · Ryan Thompson 10 · J.P. Feyereisen 7 · Pete Fairbanks 6 · Shawn Armstrong 2 · Calvin Faucher 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Yandy Díaz 30 arb 1373.9 2.8 +11.5
Shane McClanahan 25 pre-arb 293.6 0.7 +12.6
Corey Kluber 36 FA-elig 313.1 8.0 +3.4
Jeffrey Springs 29 arb 333.1 0.9 +10.2
Drew Rasmussen 26 pre-arb 283.0 0.7 +10.2
Randy Arozarena 27 pre-arb 1532.7 0.7 +9.1
Isaac Paredes 23 pre-arb 1112.3 0.6 +7.8
Wander Franco 21 pre-arb 832.3 1.5 +6.8
Manuel Margot 27 FA-elig 891.3 5.6 -0.7
Jason Adam 30 arb 671.3 0.9 +3.8
Harold Ramírez 27 pre-arb 1201.3 0.7 +4.0
Pete Fairbanks 28 pre-arb 241.2 0.7 +3.8
Christian Bethancourt↔ OAK 30 pre-arb 451.2 0.2 +4.2
Jose Siri↔ HOU 26 pre-arb 561.2 0.2 +4.1
Ji Man Choi 31 FA-elig 1131.0 3.2 +0.5
Brooks Raley 34 FA-elig 601.0 4.2 -0.7
Kevin Kiermaier 32 FA-elig 631.0 12.2 -8.6
J.P. Feyereisen 29 pre-arb 221.0 0.7 +2.8
Brandon Lowe 27 arb 650.6 4.0 -1.8
Jalen Beeks 28 arb 420.6 0.8 +1.4
Shawn Armstrong↔ MIA 31 FA-elig 430.5 0.6 +1.3
Garrett Cleavinger↔ LAD 28 pre-arb 130.5 0.1 +1.6
Ryan Thompson 30 pre-arb 470.4 0.7 +0.8
Yu Chang↔ BOS 26 – 360.4 – –
Francisco Mejía 26 arb 930.3 1.5 -0.5
Roman Quinn↔ PHI 29 arb 210.3 0.1 +0.8
Phoenix Sanders 27 – 80.2 0.2 +0.7
Matt Wisler 29 FA-elig 390.2 2.2 -1.4
Yonny Chirinos 28 arb 20.2 1.2 -0.5
David Peralta↔ ARI 34 FA-elig 470.2 2.6 -2.0
Kevin Herget 31 – 30.1 0.0 +0.5
Josh Lowe 24 pre-arb 520.1 0.3 +0.2
Tyler Glasnow 28 FA-elig 20.1 5.1 -4.6
Cooper Criswell 25 pre-arb 10.1 0.0 +0.5
Robert Dugger↔ CIN 26 – 10.1 0.1 +0.4
Shane Baz 23 pre-arb 60.1 0.7 -0.3
René Pinto 25 – 250.1 0.2 -0.0
Ryan Yarbrough 30 arb 200.1 3.9 -3.6
Cristofer Ogando 28 – 30.1 0.0 +0.2
Easton McGee 24 – 10.0 0.0 +0.2
Luke Bard↔ NYY 31 – 80.0 0.1 -0.0
Luke Raley 27 pre-arb 22-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Brett Phillips↔ BAL 28 arb 75-0.0 1.3 -1.4
JT Chargois 31 pre-arb 21-0.0 0.7 -0.9
Josh Fleming 26 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.4 -0.7
David McKay↔ NYY 27 – 1-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Andrew Kittredge 32 arb 17-0.1 1.9 -2.4
Jimmy Yacabonis↔ MIA 30 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Miles Mastrobuoni 26 – 8-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Jonathan Aranda 24 – 32-0.2 0.2 -0.9
Colin Poche 28 pre-arb 65-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Tommy Romero↔ WSN 24 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.9
Javy Guerra↔ SDP 26 pre-arb 17-0.2 0.1 -1.0
Calvin Faucher 26 – 22-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Dusten Knight 31 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Mike Zunino 31 FA-elig 36-0.3 7.0 -8.0
Ralph Garza Jr. 28 pre-arb 19-0.3 0.2 -1.4
Chris Mazza 32 – 2-0.5 0.3 -2.0
Taylor Walls 25 pre-arb 142-0.5 0.7 -2.6
Vidal Bruján 24 pre-arb 52-0.6 0.3 -2.5
Luis Patiño 22 pre-arb 6-0.6 0.5 -2.7

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Corey Kluber3.1
Isaac Paredes2.3
Jason Adam1.3
Harold Ramírez1.3
Christian Bethancourt1.2
Jose Siri1.2

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Joey Wendle3.1
Collin McHugh1.8
Austin Meadows1.5
Michael Wacha1.1
Diego Castillo0.8
Rich Hill0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$83.5M
2023 guaranteed
$7.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Kevin Kiermaier327.131$12.2MFREE AGENT
Corey Kluber369.074$8.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Zunino317.165$7.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lowe273.058$4.0M$5.2M$8.8M$10.5MCLUB$11.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Ji Man Choi316.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
David Peralta347.120$2.6MFREE AGENT
Matt Wisler297.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Wander Franco210.104$1.5M$2.5M$2.5M$8.5M$15.5M$22.5M$25.5M

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Manuel Margot275.012$5.6MFREE AGENT
Tyler Glasnow284.158$5.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Yarbrough303.147$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yandy Díaz303.122$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge323.070$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía263.062$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Phillips283.012$1.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yonny Chirinos283.137$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeffrey Springs293.055$948kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jalen Beeks283.070$750kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong313.129$602kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roman Quinn293.088$140kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yu Chang263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (40)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Brooks Raley342.045$4.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Adam301.129$900kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Harold Ramírez272.142$728kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Arozarena271.129$717kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Fairbanks282.057$714kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Rasmussen261.111$712kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane McClanahan250.158$711kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Chargois312.101$710kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Feyereisen291.108$709kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Walls250.092$704kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Baz230.014$701kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Thompson302.000$681kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Colin Poche282.114$642kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Isaac Paredes231.009$577kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Patiño221.058$455kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fleming261.076$389kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Mazza321.162$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lowe240.026$270kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Bruján240.014$269kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
René Pinto250.000$250kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ralph Garza Jr.280.084$223kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Calvin Faucher260.000$212kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Siri260.031$187kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Raley270.058$181kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Aranda240.000$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phoenix Sanders27–$154k
Christian Bethancourt302.038$151kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Javy Guerra262.052$150kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Garrett Cleavinger280.168$116kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Bard312.028$103kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Dugger261.036$63kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Yacabonis301.027$63kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miles Mastrobuoni260.000$42kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Herget310.000$35kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dusten Knight310.023$27kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Romero24–$26k
Cristofer Ogando28–$23k
Easton McGee240.000$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David McKay272.071$10kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cooper Criswell250.004$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TBR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});