RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

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President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.22× league · TAB +12.3
+12.3TAB — talent above budget7th/30
+7.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/30
11.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-3.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag4th/30
29%dead money %13th/30
0.568win %7th/30
48.9roster fWAR6th/30
+6surplus $M (value vs cost)8th/30
$175Mpayroll $M10th/30

2022: made playoffs · 92–70. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFBradley Zimmer 97GGeorge Springer 86GJackie Bradley Jr. 55G
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 105GRaimel Tapia 64GTeoscar Hernández 8G
RFTeoscar Hernández 117GJackie Bradley Jr. 91GWhit Merrifield 40G
SSBo Bichette 157GSantiago Espinal 11GOtto Lopez 5G
2BSantiago Espinal 120GWhit Merrifield 83GCavan Biggio 49G
3BMatt Chapman 153GSantiago Espinal 11GCavan Biggio 1G
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 128GCavan Biggio 33GLourdes Gurriel Jr. 8G
STARTERSKevin Gausman 5.5WARAlek Manoah 3.9WARRoss Stripling 3.0WARJosé Berríos 0.9WARMitch White 0.5WAR
CAlejandro Kirk 78GDanny Jansen 63GGabriel Moreno 19G
DHAlejandro Kirk 50GGeorge Springer 40GVladimir Guerrero Jr. 32G
BULLPEN★ Jordan Romano 36svAnthony Bass 23hYimi García 23hAdam Cimber 19hTim Mayza 17hDavid Phelps 9hTrevor Richards 8hZach Pop 3h
CAlejandro Kirk 78 · Danny Jansen 63 · Gabriel Moreno 19
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 128 · Cavan Biggio 33 · Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 8
2BSantiago Espinal 120 · Whit Merrifield 83 · Cavan Biggio 49
3BMatt Chapman 153 · Santiago Espinal 11 · Cavan Biggio 1
SSBo Bichette 157 · Santiago Espinal 11 · Otto Lopez 5
LFLourdes Gurriel Jr. 105 · Raimel Tapia 64 · Teoscar Hernández 8
CFBradley Zimmer 97 · George Springer 86 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 55
RFTeoscar Hernández 117 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 91 · Whit Merrifield 40
DHAlejandro Kirk 50 · George Springer 40 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 32
SPKevin Gausman 5.5 · Alek Manoah 3.9 · Ross Stripling 3.0 · José Berríos 0.9 · Mitch White 0.5
BP★ Jordan Romano 36 · Anthony Bass 23 · Yimi García 23 · Adam Cimber 19 · Tim Mayza 17 · David Phelps 9 · Trevor Richards 8 · Zach Pop 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kevin Gausman 31 FA-elig 315.5 21.0 -0.7
Bo Bichette 24 pre-arb 1594.8 0.8 +16.9
Alejandro Kirk 23 pre-arb 1394.3 0.7 +15.0
George Springer 32 FA-elig 1334.0 29.7 -14.9
Alek Manoah 24 pre-arb 313.9 0.7 +13.6
Matt Chapman 29 arb 1553.9 12.5 +1.7
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 23 arb 1603.3 7.9 +4.2
Teoscar Hernández 29 FA-elig 1313.0 10.7 +0.5
Ross Stripling 32 FA-elig 323.0 3.8 +7.2
Danny Jansen 27 arb 722.7 1.9 +7.8
Santiago Espinal 27 pre-arb 1352.4 0.7 +8.0
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 28 arb 1211.5 4.9 +0.7
Jordan Romano 29 pre-arb 631.5 0.7 +4.9
Cavan Biggio 27 arb 971.3 2.1 +2.7
José Berríos 28 FA-elig 320.9 10.7 -7.5
Adam Cimber 31 arb 770.8 1.6 +1.4
Yimi García 31 FA-elig 610.8 4.5 -1.6
Gabriel Moreno 22 – 250.8 0.2 +2.7
David Phelps 35 FA-elig 650.7 3.5 -1.0
Whit Merrifield↔ KCR 33 FA-elig 440.7 2.2 +0.2
Raimel Tapia 28 FA-elig 1280.5 4.0 -2.0
Mitch White↔ LAD 27 pre-arb 100.5 0.2 +1.8
Jackie Bradley Jr.↔ BOS 32 FA-elig 400.2 5.3 -4.5
Zach Pop↔ MIA 25 pre-arb 180.2 0.1 +0.5
Trevor Richards 29 arb 620.1 1.0 -0.5
Tyler Heineman↔ PIT 31 – 100.1 0.1 +0.4
Otto Lopez 23 pre-arb 80.1 0.1 +0.3
Gosuke Katoh 27 – 80.1 0.1 +0.3
Julian Merryweather 30 pre-arb 260.1 0.6 -0.3
Zack Collins↔ PIT 27 – 260.1 0.3 -0.1
Hyun Jin Ryu 35 FA-elig 60.1 20.0 -19.8
Vinny Capra 25 – 80.0 0.1 +0.1
Matt Gage 29 – 110.0 0.1 -0.0
Foster Griffin↔ KCR 26 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Bowden Francis 26 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Max Castillo↔ KCR 23 – 90.0 0.1 -0.0
Anthony Kay 27 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Shaun Anderson 27 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Tim Mayza 30 arb 63-0.0 1.2 -1.3
Anthony Banda↔ NYY 28 – 7-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Sergio Romo↔ SEA 39 FA-elig 6-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Andrew Vasquez↔ SFG 28 – 9-0.1 0.2 -0.6
Trent Thornton 28 arb 32-0.1 0.8 -1.3
Anthony Bass↔ MIA 34 FA-elig 28-0.1 1.1 -1.5
Jeremy Beasley 26 – 9-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Ryan Borucki↔ SEA 28 arb 11-0.3 0.3 -1.3
Thomas Hatch 27 pre-arb 1-0.3 0.0 -1.0
Bradley Zimmer↔ PHI 29 – 100-0.4 0.9 -2.2
Casey Lawrence 34 – 6-0.4 – –
Tayler Saucedo 29 pre-arb 4-0.4 0.7 -2.2
Yusei Kikuchi 31 arb 32-0.9 16.0 -19.2

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Gausman5.5
Matt Chapman3.9
Yimi García0.8
Gabriel Moreno0.8
Whit Merrifield0.7
Raimel Tapia0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Marcus Semien5.9
Robbie Ray3.9
Steven Matz2.7
Reese McGuire1.4
Corey Dickerson0.4
Anthony Castro0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$175.0M
2023 guaranteed
$61.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
George Springer327.166$29.7M$24.2M$24.2M$24.2M$24.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman317.151$21.0M$21.0M$24.0M$23.0M$23.0MFREE AGENT
Hyun Jin Ryu359.000$20.0MFREE AGENT
José Berríos285.044$10.7M$16.0M$18.0M$19.0M$19.0M$24.0M$24.0M
Jackie Bradley Jr.329.000$5.3MFREE AGENT
Yimi García316.149$4.5MFREE AGENT
David Phelps359.156$3.5MFREE AGENT
Anthony Bass347.010$1.1MFREE AGENT
Sergio Romo3914.000$522kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Yusei Kikuchi313.000$16.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Chapman294.109$12.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Teoscar Hernández294.097$10.7MARB 3FREE AGENT
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.233.000$7.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.284.000$4.9MARB 3FREE AGENT
Raimel Tapia284.020$4.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ross Stripling325.115$3.8MFREE AGENT
Whit Merrifield335.101$2.2MFREE AGENT
Danny Jansen273.050$1.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Cimber313.156$1.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards293.084$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradley Zimmer293.119$878kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Borucki283.060$284kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (29)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Cavan Biggio272.129$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza302.156$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Thornton282.130$850kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Bichette242.063$825kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Manoah240.130$730kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Espinal271.149$724kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro Kirk231.047$714kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Romano292.051$710kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tayler Saucedo290.112$662kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Julian Merryweather301.114$610kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Collins271.149$277kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Vasquez280.045$241kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Moreno220.000$227kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch White270.116$158kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Beasley260.169$127kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vinny Capra250.000$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Gage290.000$104kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Otto Lopez230.005$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gosuke Katoh27–$96k
Zach Pop251.000$96kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Max Castillo230.000$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Heineman310.121$88kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Banda282.008$71kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Kay271.091$39kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bowden Francis260.000$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Hatch271.123$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Foster Griffin261.000$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shaun Anderson271.169$8kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Lawrence341.171—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TOR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});