RRosternomics
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Blue Jays TOR

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Mark Shapiro · GM: Ross Atkins

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 3 in this regime · payroll 1.36× league · TAB +5.2
+5.2TAB — talent above budget11th/30
+3.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)14th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars4th/30
-2.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
19%dead money %7th/30
0.549win %9th/30
43.2roster fWAR9th/30
-38surplus $M (value vs cost)20th/30
$210Mpayroll $M7th/30

2023: made playoffs · 89–73. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKevin Kiermaier 127GDaulton Varsho 64GGeorge Springer 1G
LFDaulton Varsho 117GWhit Merrifield 81GNathan Lukes 4G
RFGeorge Springer 131GCavan Biggio 27GNathan Lukes 15G
SSBo Bichette 130GSantiago Espinal 16GErnie Clement 15G
2BWhit Merrifield 84GCavan Biggio 49GSantiago Espinal 47G
3BMatt Chapman 137GSantiago Espinal 26GCavan Biggio 13G
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 121GBrandon Belt 29GCavan Biggio 20G
STARTERSKevin Gausman 5.3WARJosé Berríos 2.9WARYusei Kikuchi 2.6WARChris Bassitt 2.6WARHyun Jin Ryu 0.4WAR
CAlejandro Kirk 99GDanny Jansen 73GTyler Heineman 20G
DHBrandon Belt 69GVladimir Guerrero Jr. 34GGeorge Springer 21G
BULLPEN★ Jordan Romano 36svErik Swanson 29hTim Mayza 22hYimi García 19hJordan Hicks 13hGénesis Cabrera 11hTrevor Richards 11hNate Pearson 3h
CAlejandro Kirk 99 · Danny Jansen 73 · Tyler Heineman 20
1BVladimir Guerrero Jr. 121 · Brandon Belt 29 · Cavan Biggio 20
2BWhit Merrifield 84 · Cavan Biggio 49 · Santiago Espinal 47
3BMatt Chapman 137 · Santiago Espinal 26 · Cavan Biggio 13
SSBo Bichette 130 · Santiago Espinal 16 · Ernie Clement 15
LFDaulton Varsho 117 · Whit Merrifield 81 · Nathan Lukes 4
CFKevin Kiermaier 127 · Daulton Varsho 64 · George Springer 1
RFGeorge Springer 131 · Cavan Biggio 27 · Nathan Lukes 15
DHBrandon Belt 69 · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 34 · George Springer 21
SPKevin Gausman 5.3 · José Berríos 2.9 · Yusei Kikuchi 2.6 · Chris Bassitt 2.6 · Hyun Jin Ryu 0.4
BP★ Jordan Romano 36 · Erik Swanson 29 · Tim Mayza 22 · Yimi García 19 · Jordan Hicks 13 · Génesis Cabrera 11 · Trevor Richards 11 · Nate Pearson 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2023 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kevin Gausman 32 FA-elig 315.3 21.0 -0.1
Bo Bichette 25 arb 1353.9 3.9 +11.5
Matt Chapman 30 FA-elig 1403.0 12.5 -0.8
José Berríos 29 FA-elig 322.9 15.7 -4.1
Kevin Kiermaier 33 FA-elig 1292.7 9.0 +1.6
Chris Bassitt 34 FA-elig 332.6 19.0 -8.7
Yusei Kikuchi 32 arb 322.6 10.0 +0.2
Alejandro Kirk 24 arb 1232.3 0.8 +8.2
Brandon Belt 35 FA-elig 1032.1 9.3 -0.8
Danny Jansen 28 arb 861.9 3.5 +4.1
Davis Schneider 24 – 351.9 0.2 +7.4
Daulton Varsho 26 arb 1581.9 3.0 +4.5
George Springer 33 FA-elig 1541.8 24.2 -17.0
Tim Mayza 31 FA-elig 691.3 2.1 +3.0
Whit Merrifield 34 FA-elig 1451.2 6.8 -1.9
Jordan Romano 30 arb 591.2 4.5 +0.3
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 24 arb 1561.2 14.5 -9.8
Yimi García 32 FA-elig 731.0 5.5 -1.5
Cavan Biggio 28 arb 1110.9 2.8 +0.8
Erik Swanson 29 arb 690.9 1.2 +2.3
Ernie Clement 27 pre-arb 300.6 0.3 +2.0
Tyler Heineman↔ PIT 32 pre-arb 190.5 0.2 +1.6
Hyun Jin Ryu 36 FA-elig 110.4 20.0 -18.4
Trevor Richards 30 arb 560.4 1.5 +0.1
Génesis Cabrera↔ STL 26 arb 290.3 0.5 +0.7
Chad Green 32 FA-elig 120.3 2.2 -1.2
Jordan Hicks↔ STL 26 arb 250.2 0.7 +0.3
Bowden Francis 27 pre-arb 200.2 0.3 +0.5
Spencer Horwitz 25 – 150.1 0.1 +0.4
Jay Jackson 35 pre-arb 250.1 1.5 -1.0
Trent Thornton↔ SEA 29 arb 40.1 0.1 +0.3
Thomas Hatch↔ PIT 28 – 60.1 0.1 +0.3
Hagen Danner 24 – 10.0 0.2 -0.2
Anthony Bass 35 – 22-0.0 3.0 -3.0
Nathan Lukes 28 – 29-0.0 0.4 -0.4
Nate Pearson 26 pre-arb 35-0.0 0.4 -0.5
Mitch White 28 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.5 -0.6
Santiago Espinal 28 arb 93-0.0 2.1 -2.3
Mason McCoy 28 – 6-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Jordan Luplow↔ MIN 29 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Cam Eden 25 – 5-0.1 0.0 -0.5
Wes Parsons 30 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Zach Pop 26 pre-arb 15-0.3 0.7 -1.9
Alek Manoah 25 pre-arb 19-0.4 0.7 -2.4
Adam Cimber 32 arb 22-0.6 3.1 -5.5
Paul DeJong↔ SFG 29 FA-elig 13-0.8 1.1 -4.2

Key additions (new vs 2022)

PlayerfWAR
Kevin Kiermaier2.7
Chris Bassitt2.6
Brandon Belt2.1
Davis Schneider1.9
Daulton Varsho1.9
Erik Swanson0.9

Key subtractions (gone from 2022)

Player2022 fWAR
Teoscar Hernández3.0
Ross Stripling3.0
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.1.5
Gabriel Moreno0.8
David Phelps0.7
Raimel Tapia0.5

Current & Historical Payroll

2023 payroll
$209.5M
2024 guaranteed
$66.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2023, 2023–2029. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2023; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
George Springer338.166$24.2M$24.2M$24.2M$24.2MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman328.151$21.0M$24.0M$23.0M$23.0MFREE AGENT
Hyun Jin Ryu3610.000$20.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Bassitt346.130$19.0MFREE AGENT
José Berríos296.044$15.7M$18.0M$19.0M$19.0M$24.0M$24.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Belt3511.128$9.3MFREE AGENT
Kevin Kiermaier338.131$9.0MFREE AGENT
Whit Merrifield346.101$6.8MFREE AGENT
Yimi García327.149$5.5MFREE AGENT
Anthony Bass358.010$3.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Green326.050$2.2MFREE AGENT
Paul DeJong296.000$1.1MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.244.000$14.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Chapman305.109$12.5MFREE AGENT
Yusei Kikuchi324.000$10.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Romano303.051$4.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Bichette253.063$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Jansen284.050$3.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Cimber324.156$3.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cavan Biggio283.129$2.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Mayza313.156$2.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards304.084$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Erik Swanson293.096$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Hicks265.000$707kFREE AGENT
Génesis Cabrera263.011$452kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trent Thornton293.073$148kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Luplow294.108$78kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2023202420252026202720282029
Daulton Varsho262.128$3.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Espinal282.149$2.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Jackson351.105$1.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro Kirk242.047$767kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alek Manoah251.130$746kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Pop261.094$742kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mitch White281.087$491kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Pearson262.061$422kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nathan Lukes280.000$356kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bowden Francis270.007$279kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ernie Clement271.087$259kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Davis Schneider240.000$225kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hagen Danner241.052$197kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Heineman321.121$191kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Spencer Horwitz250.000$120kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Thomas Hatch281.125$54kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mason McCoy280.000$43kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cam Eden25–$43k
Wes Parsons300.088$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Blue Jays 2023; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TOR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});