RRosternomics
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Astros HOU

‹ ›

GM: James Click

Overview

CONTEND ↘ cooling
expensive & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 1.25× league · TAB +20.4
+20.4TAB — talent above budget2nd/30
+21.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)2nd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-3.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag5th/30
19%dead money %2nd/30
0.654win %2nd/30
57.3roster fWAR2nd/30
+31surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/30
$179Mpayroll $M9th/30

2022: World Series champions · 106–56. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFChas McCormick 60GMauricio Dubón 59GJake Meyers 51G
LFChas McCormick 64GYordan Alvarez 56GMichael Brantley 29G
RFKyle Tucker 147GChas McCormick 17GTrey Mancini 11G
SSJeremy Peña 134GMauricio Dubón 21GAledmys Díaz 18G
2BJose Altuve 135GAledmys Díaz 22GMauricio Dubón 17G
3BAlex Bregman 154GAledmys Díaz 10GDavid Hensley 3G
1BYuli Gurriel 142GTrey Mancini 39GJ.J. Matijevic 10G
STARTERSJustin Verlander 6.1WARFramber Valdez 4.4WARCristian Javier 3.4WARLuis Garcia 2.0WARJosé Urquidy 1.0WAR
CMartín Maldonado 113GChristian Vázquez 108GJason Castro 30G
DHYordan Alvarez 77GTrey Mancini 71GMichael Brantley 35G
BULLPEN★ Ryan Pressly 33svHéctor Neris 25hRafael Montero 23hRyne Stanek 17hWill Smith 16hPhil Maton 14hBryan Abreu 8hSeth Martinez 3h
CMartín Maldonado 113 · Christian Vázquez 108 · Jason Castro 30
1BYuli Gurriel 142 · Trey Mancini 39 · J.J. Matijevic 10
2BJose Altuve 135 · Aledmys Díaz 22 · Mauricio Dubón 17
3BAlex Bregman 154 · Aledmys Díaz 10 · David Hensley 3
SSJeremy Peña 134 · Mauricio Dubón 21 · Aledmys Díaz 18
LFChas McCormick 64 · Yordan Alvarez 56 · Michael Brantley 29
CFChas McCormick 60 · Mauricio Dubón 59 · Jake Meyers 51
RFKyle Tucker 147 · Chas McCormick 17 · Trey Mancini 11
DHYordan Alvarez 77 · Trey Mancini 71 · Michael Brantley 35
SPJustin Verlander 6.1 · Framber Valdez 4.4 · Cristian Javier 3.4 · Luis Garcia 2.0 · José Urquidy 1.0
BP★ Ryan Pressly 33 · Héctor Neris 25 · Rafael Montero 23 · Ryne Stanek 17 · Will Smith 16 · Phil Maton 14 · Bryan Abreu 8 · Seth Martinez 3

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2022 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jose Altuve 32 FA-elig 1416.9 29.0 -3.8
Yordan Alvarez 25 arb 1356.4 0.8 +22.5
Justin Verlander 39 FA-elig 286.1 25.0 -2.8
Alex Bregman 28 FA-elig 1555.4 13.0 +6.8
Kyle Tucker 25 pre-arb 1504.9 0.8 +17.1
Framber Valdez 28 arb 314.4 3.0 +13.1
Cristian Javier 25 pre-arb 303.4 0.7 +11.6
Jeremy Peña 24 – 1363.3 0.7 +11.4
Chas McCormick 27 pre-arb 1192.4 0.7 +7.9
Luis Garcia 25 pre-arb 282.0 1.3 +6.2
Héctor Neris 33 FA-elig 701.6 8.0 -2.0
Rafael Montero 31 FA-elig 711.5 2.7 +2.7
Bryan Abreu 25 pre-arb 551.4 0.7 +4.3
Ryan Pressly 33 FA-elig 501.4 10.0 -5.0
Jake Odorizzi↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 121.2 4.4 -0.0
Michael Brantley 35 FA-elig 641.1 16.0 -12.0
José Urquidy 27 pre-arb 291.0 0.7 +2.9
Ryne Stanek 30 arb 590.9 2.1 +1.3
Aledmys Díaz 31 FA-elig 920.8 4.5 -1.4
Lance McCullers Jr. 28 FA-elig 80.8 15.9 -13.0
Martín Maldonado 35 FA-elig 1130.8 5.0 -2.2
Jose Siri↔ TBR 26 – 480.6 0.2 +2.2
Hunter Brown 23 – 70.6 0.1 +2.1
Seth Martinez 27 pre-arb 290.4 0.4 +1.1
Jake Meyers 26 pre-arb 520.4 0.6 +0.7
Will Smith↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 240.3 4.8 -3.5
David Hensley 26 – 160.3 0.2 +1.0
Christian Vázquez↔ BOS 31 FA-elig 350.2 2.1 -1.5
Parker Mushinski 26 – 70.1 0.3 +0.1
Mauricio Dubón↔ SFG 27 pre-arb 830.1 0.5 -0.2
Joe Perez 22 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Enoli Paredes 26 pre-arb 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Pedro Báez 34 FA-elig 3-0.0 5.8 -5.8
Taylor Jones 28 – 1-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Yainer Diaz 23 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Ronel Blanco 28 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Phil Maton 29 arb 67-0.1 1.6 -1.9
Brandon Bielak 26 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Blake Taylor 26 pre-arb 19-0.1 0.6 -1.0
J.J. Matijevic 26 – 32-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Trey Mancini↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 51-0.3 2.7 -3.6
Niko Goodrum 30 arb 15-0.4 2.1 -3.4
Korey Lee 23 – 12-0.4 0.1 -1.6
Yuli Gurriel 38 FA-elig 146-0.7 8.0 -10.5
Jason Castro 35 FA-elig 34-0.8 3.5 -6.4

Key additions (new vs 2021)

PlayerfWAR
Justin Verlander6.1
Jeremy Peña3.3
Héctor Neris1.6
Hunter Brown0.6
Will Smith0.3
David Hensley0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2021)

Player2021 fWAR
Carlos Correa6.3
Zack Greinke1.2
Myles Straw1.0
Brooks Raley0.8
Yimi García0.3
Kendall Graveman0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2022 payroll
$179.4M
2023 guaranteed
$15.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2022, 2022–2028. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2022; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Jose Altuve3210.072$29.0MFREE AGENT
Justin Verlander3916.002$25.0MFREE AGENT
Michael Brantley3511.131$16.0MFREE AGENT
Lance McCullers Jr.286.140$15.9M$15.9M$17.7M$17.7M$17.7MFREE AGENT
Ryan Pressly338.039$10.0MFREE AGENT
Héctor Neris336.068$8.0MFREE AGENT
Yuli Gurriel386.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Pedro Báez348.000$5.8MFREE AGENT
Martín Maldonado359.156$5.0MFREE AGENT
Will Smith3210.000$4.8MFREE AGENT
Jake Odorizzi328.042$4.4MFREE AGENT
Jason Castro3511.104$3.5MFREE AGENT
Christian Vázquez317.031$2.1MCLUBFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Alex Bregman285.070$13.0MFREE AGENT
Aledmys Díaz315.100$4.5MFREE AGENT
Rafael Montero315.138$2.7MFREE AGENT
Trey Mancini305.015$2.7MFREE AGENT
Niko Goodrum305.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Ryne Stanek304.038$2.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Maton294.047$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2022202320242025202620272028
Framber Valdez282.163$3.0MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Garcia252.000$1.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yordan Alvarez252.113$765kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kyle Tucker252.079$764kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cristian Javier252.000$749kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Urquidy272.049$749kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bryan Abreu251.022$720kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Peña240.000$700kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chas McCormick271.000$696kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Taylor262.000$643kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Meyers260.065$590kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauricio Dubón271.162$452kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Martinez270.014$427kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Jones280.162$307kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Matijevic26–$300k
Parker Mushinski260.000$269kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hensley260.000$177kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Siri260.031$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Brown230.000$131kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Korey Lee230.000$119kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Bielak261.143$119kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yainer Diaz230.000$112kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ronel Blanco280.000$96kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Enoli Paredes261.096$27kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Perez22–$23k

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Astros 2022; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Not enough history to chart.

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Pick a wider year range.

'; return; } const s=sm(raw,w),n=s.length,X=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[1]*100)/100),Y=s.map(d=>Math.round(d[2]*10)/10),yr=s.map(d=>d[0]); let xa=Math.min(1,...X),xb=Math.max(1,...X),ya=Math.min(0,...Y),yb=Math.max(0,...Y); const px=(xb-xa)*.12+.04,py=(yb-ya)*.12+1.5;xa-=px;xb+=px;ya-=py;yb+=py; const k=Math.max(0,n-3), ann=[]; [['WINDOW','#15b6a0',xa<1&&yb>0,xa,yb,'left','top'],['CONTEND','#2f7ed8',xb>1&&yb>0,xb,yb,'right','top'], ['FORCED-SPEND','#ec5a3c',xb>1&&ya<0,xb,ya,'right','bottom'],['REBUILD','#f0a91c',xa<1&&ya<0,xa,ya,'left','bottom']].forEach(q=>{ if(q[2]) ann.push({x:q[3],y:q[4],xref:'x',yref:'y',text:q[0],showarrow:false,xanchor:q[5],yanchor:q[6],font:{size:10,color:q[1]},opacity:.85});}); ann.push({x:X[n-1],y:Y[n-1],ax:X[n-1]-0.5*(X[n-1]-X[k]),ay:Y[n-1]-0.5*(Y[n-1]-Y[k]),xref:'x',yref:'y',axref:'x',ayref:'y',showarrow:true,arrowhead:2,arrowsize:1.3,arrowwidth:1.7,arrowcolor:dirc,text:''}); Plotly.newPlot('orbit',[{x:X,y:Y,mode:'lines+markers',line:{color:col,width:2.6,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.7}, marker:{color:col,size:s.map((d,i)=>5+7*(i/Math.max(1,n-1))),line:{color:dark?'#1b1e23':'#fff',width:0.6}}, text:yr,hovertemplate:'%{text}
payroll %{x:.2f}× lg · TAB %{y:+.1f}
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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'HOU',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});