RRosternomics
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Rays TBR

‹ ›

President of baseball ops: Erik Neander

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 14 in this regime · payroll 0.5× league · TAB +23.2
+23.2TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+26.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars3rd/30
-2.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag2nd/30
31%dead money %12th/30
0.617win %3rd/30
49.1roster fWAR5th/30
+96surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$63Mpayroll $M25th/30

2021: made playoffs · 100–62. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFKevin Kiermaier 116GBrett Phillips 52GManuel Margot 24G
LFRandy Arozarena 81GAustin Meadows 78GManuel Margot 24G
RFManuel Margot 86GRandy Arozarena 53GBrett Phillips 46G
SSWander Franco 63GTaylor Walls 49GJoey Wendle 25G
2BBrandon Lowe 133GMike Brosseau 27GJoey Wendle 16G
3BJoey Wendle 107GYandy Díaz 58GMike Brosseau 23G
1BYandy Díaz 81GJi Man Choi 73GJordan Luplow 17G
STARTERSTyler Glasnow 2.5WARShane McClanahan 2.5WARCollin McHugh 1.8WARDrew Rasmussen 1.4WARRyan Yarbrough 1.2WAR
CMike Zunino 105GFrancisco Mejía 76GJoseph Odom 1G
DHNelson Cruz 133GAustin Meadows 60GRandy Arozarena 19G
BULLPEN★ Andrew Kittredge 8svJT Chargois 15hJ.P. Feyereisen 15hPete Fairbanks 14hRyan Thompson 11hMatt Wisler 10hJeffrey Springs 10hShawn Armstrong 2h
CMike Zunino 105 · Francisco Mejía 76 · Joseph Odom 1
1BYandy Díaz 81 · Ji Man Choi 73 · Jordan Luplow 17
2BBrandon Lowe 133 · Mike Brosseau 27 · Joey Wendle 16
3BJoey Wendle 107 · Yandy Díaz 58 · Mike Brosseau 23
SSWander Franco 63 · Taylor Walls 49 · Joey Wendle 25
LFRandy Arozarena 81 · Austin Meadows 78 · Manuel Margot 24
CFKevin Kiermaier 116 · Brett Phillips 52 · Manuel Margot 24
RFManuel Margot 86 · Randy Arozarena 53 · Brett Phillips 46
DHNelson Cruz 133 · Austin Meadows 60 · Randy Arozarena 19
SPTyler Glasnow 2.5 · Shane McClanahan 2.5 · Collin McHugh 1.8 · Drew Rasmussen 1.4 · Ryan Yarbrough 1.2
BP★ Andrew Kittredge 8 · JT Chargois 15 · J.P. Feyereisen 15 · Pete Fairbanks 14 · Ryan Thompson 11 · Matt Wisler 10 · Jeffrey Springs 10 · Shawn Armstrong 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2021 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Brandon Lowe 26 arb 1494.5 2.5 +12.0
Mike Zunino 30 FA-elig 1094.1 2.0 +11.2
Randy Arozarena 26 pre-arb 1413.9 0.6 +12.0
Joey Wendle 31 arb 1363.1 2.2 +7.7
Kevin Kiermaier 31 FA-elig 1222.8 11.2 -2.0
Tyler Glasnow 27 arb 142.5 4.0 +4.3
Shane McClanahan 24 – 252.5 0.5 +7.8
Wander Franco 20 – 702.4 0.3 +7.4
Brett Phillips 27 pre-arb 1192.2 0.6 +6.6
Manuel Margot 26 arb 1252.1 3.4 +3.4
Collin McHugh 34 FA-elig 371.8 1.8 +4.2
Yandy Díaz 29 pre-arb 1341.7 0.6 +5.0
Austin Meadows 26 pre-arb 1421.5 0.6 +4.4
Andrew Kittredge 31 pre-arb 571.5 0.8 +4.0
Drew Rasmussen↔ MIL 25 pre-arb 201.4 0.2 +4.3
Ryan Yarbrough 29 arb 301.2 2.3 +1.7
Francisco Mejía 25 pre-arb 841.2 0.6 +3.2
Ji Man Choi 30 arb 831.1 2.5 +1.1
Matt Wisler↔ SFG 28 FA-elig 271.1 0.6 +2.9
Michael Wacha 29 FA-elig 301.1 3.0 +0.4
Pete Fairbanks 27 pre-arb 471.0 0.6 +2.6
Diego Castillo↔ SEA 27 – 370.8 0.2 +2.3
Rich Hill↔ NYM 41 FA-elig 190.7 1.5 +0.7
Luis Patiño 21 pre-arb 190.7 0.3 +1.8
Ryan Thompson 29 pre-arb 360.7 0.6 +1.5
Dietrich Enns 30 pre-arb 90.6 0.1 +1.8
Josh Fleming 25 pre-arb 260.5 0.5 +1.3
Louis Head 31 – 270.5 0.2 +1.3
Taylor Walls 24 – 540.4 0.3 +1.1
Jeffrey Springs 28 pre-arb 430.2 0.6 +0.2
Hunter Strickland↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 130.2 0.1 +0.6
Shane Baz 22 – 30.2 0.0 +0.6
Jordan Luplow↔ CLE 27 pre-arb 260.2 0.2 +0.5
Chris Archer 32 FA-elig 60.2 6.5 -6.0
J.P. Feyereisen↔ MIL 28 pre-arb 340.1 0.3 +0.2
Chris Mazza 31 pre-arb 140.1 0.2 +0.2
Josh Lowe 23 – 20.1 0.0 +0.4
Trevor Richards↔ MIL 28 – 60.1 0.0 +0.3
Chris Ellis↔ BAL 28 – 10.1 0.0 +0.3
Ryan Sherriff 31 pre-arb 160.1 0.1 +0.2
Adam Conley 31 arb 170.1 0.2 +0.1
David Robertson 36 FA-elig 120.1 0.1 +0.2
DJ Johnson↔ CLE 31 pre-arb 30.1 0.2 -0.0
Nelson Cruz↔ MIN 40 FA-elig 550.0 5.1 -5.0
Sean Poppen↔ ARI 27 – 10.0 0.0 +0.1
Chaz Roe 34 FA-elig 10.0 1.1 -1.1
Joey Krehbiel↔ BAL 28 arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Mike Brosseau 27 – 57-0.0 – –
Kevin Padlo↔ SEA 24 – 9-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Kevan Smith↔ ATL 33 – 3-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Evan Phillips↔ LAD 26 – 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Willy Adames↔ MIL 25 – 41-0.0 0.1 -0.3
Joseph Odom 29 – 2-0.0 – –
Cody Reed 28 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.6 -0.9
David Hess↔ MIA 27 pre-arb 1-0.2 0.0 -0.5
JT Chargois↔ SEA 30 arb 25-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Nick Anderson 30 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.6 -1.3
Shawn Armstrong↔ BAL 30 FA-elig 11-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Brent Honeywell 26 – 3-0.2 0.0 -0.7
Vidal Bruján 23 – 10-0.5 0.0 -1.5
Yoshi Tsutsugo↔ LAD 29 pre-arb 26-0.5 2.2 -3.9

Key additions (new vs 2020)

PlayerfWAR
Shane McClanahan2.5
Wander Franco2.4
Collin McHugh1.8
Drew Rasmussen1.4
Francisco Mejía1.2
Matt Wisler1.1

Key subtractions (gone from 2020)

Player2020 fWAR
Charlie Morton0.9
Blake Snell0.6
Aaron Slegers0.5
John Curtiss0.4
Aaron Loup0.2
Nathaniel Lowe0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

2021 payroll
$63.4M
2022 guaranteed
$4.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2021, 2021–2027. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2021; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Kevin Kiermaier316.131$11.2MFREE AGENT
Chris Archer327.156$6.5MFREE AGENT
Nelson Cruz4013.082$5.1MFREE AGENT
Michael Wacha297.062$3.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon Lowe262.058$2.5M$4.0M$5.2M$8.8M$10.5MCLUB$11.5MCLUBFREE AGENT
Mike Zunino306.165$2.0MFREE AGENT
Collin McHugh346.085$1.8MFREE AGENT
Rich Hill4111.127$1.5MFREE AGENT
David Robertson3612.070$98kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Tyler Glasnow273.158$4.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Manuel Margot264.012$3.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ji Man Choi305.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Joey Wendle313.088$2.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chaz Roe345.094$1.1MFREE AGENT
Matt Wisler284.042$647kARB 3FREE AGENT
Shawn Armstrong303.028$293kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Conley314.103$153kARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Strickland325.033$130kFREE AGENT
Vidal Bruján234.014$43kARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevan Smith334.031$24kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Honeywell263.045$12kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (40)

PlayerAgeSvc2021202220232024202520262027
Ryan Yarbrough292.147$2.3MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yoshi Tsutsugo291.000$2.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Kittredge312.070$750kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Meadows262.074$591kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yandy Díaz292.122$589kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Anderson302.000$588kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Mejía252.054$586kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeffrey Springs282.043$585kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Phillips272.012$584kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pete Fairbanks271.057$584kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Reed282.072$581kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Arozarena260.129$581kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Thompson291.000$577kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane McClanahan240.000$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Fleming250.100$454kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Patiño210.100$334kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wander Franco200.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.P. Feyereisen280.108$259kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Walls240.000$258kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
JT Chargois301.125$255kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drew Rasmussen250.128$239kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Diego Castillo272.118$228kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Mazza310.162$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Louis Head310.000$190kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Johnson310.109$173kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Luplow272.112$159kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Willy Adames252.105$126kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sherriff310.156$108kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dietrich Enns300.027$98kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Padlo241.086$41kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shane Baz220.000$40kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trevor Richards282.098$31kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Phillips260.133$18kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Ellis280.001$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Krehbiel280.003$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Lowe230.000$9kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hess271.146$9kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Poppen270.119$6kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joseph Odom29–—
Mike Brosseau272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Rays 2021; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28952.230.14.81.0
CONTEND 31156.863.019.310.3
FORCED-SPEND 26047.98.81.21.2
REBUILD 32843.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.
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Pick a wider year range.

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slot %{x} · %{customdata[1]:.1f} WAR
%{y:.1%} of roster WAR' : '%{customdata[0]}'+posbit+'
slot %{x} · %{y:.1f} WAR'; buildPosLegend(); const _div=document.getElementById('wardist'); const traces=[ {type:'bar',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:team,name:'TBR',marker:{color:barcol},customdata:cd,hovertemplate:htmpl}, {type:'scatter',x:WARDIST.ranks,y:league,name:'league avg',mode:'lines',line:{color:line,width:2,shape:'spline',smoothing:0.6},hovertemplate:'league slot %{x}: %{y:'+fmt+'}'} ]; const layout={margin:{l:48,r:12,t:6,b:38},paper_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',plot_bgcolor:'rgba(0,0,0,0)',font:FONT, transition:{duration:360,easing:'cubic-in-out'}, xaxis:{title:{text:'roster slot (ranked by WAR)',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:false,color:ink}, yaxis:{title:{text:WD_MODE==='prop'?'share of roster WAR':'WAR',font:{size:11}},gridcolor:grid,zeroline:true,zerolinecolor:grid,color:ink,tickformat:WD_MODE==='prop'?'.0%':undefined}, showlegend:true,legend:{orientation:'h',y:1.13,x:0,font:{size:11}},bargap:0.14}; if(_div.data&&_div.data.length){ Plotly.react(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } else { Plotly.newPlot(_div,traces,layout,{displayModeBar:false,responsive:true}); } } window.wdMode=function(m){WD_MODE=m;document.getElementById('wd-raw').classList.toggle('on',m==='raw');document.getElementById('wd-prop').classList.toggle('on',m==='prop');drawWarDist();}; window.wcToggle=function(){WC_MODE=WC_MODE==='pos'?'team':'pos';const b=document.getElementById('wc-btn');b.classList.toggle('on',WC_MODE==='pos');b.textContent=WC_MODE==='pos'?'Show team color':'Color by position';drawWarDist();}; // ---- Graphs dropdown switcher (orbit ⇄ roster value distribution) ---- let _wdRendered=false; window.showTeamGraph=function(g){ document.querySelectorAll('.gpane').forEach(p=>{ p.style.display=(p.dataset.g===g)?'':'none'; }); if(g==='orbit'){ drawOrbit(); } else if(g==='roster'){ if(!_wdRendered){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } else { try{ Plotly.Plots.resize('wardist'); }catch(e){ drawWarDist(); } } } }; { const _ts=document.getElementById('tgsel'); if(_ts) _ts.addEventListener('change',()=>showTeamGraph(_ts.value)); } // initial paint of the default pane (roster when the team has roster data, else orbit already drawn above) if(WARDIST){ drawWarDist(); _wdRendered=true; } // redraw the roster pane on theme change only if it's been rendered and is visible if(WARDIST){ new MutationObserver(()=>{ const p=document.querySelector('.gpane[data-g="roster"]'); if(_wdRendered && p && p.style.display!=='none') drawWarDist(); }).observe(document.documentElement,{attributes:true,attributeFilter:['data-theme']}); } // ---- TOC scroll-spy ---- (function(){ const links=[...document.querySelectorAll('.toc a')]; const secs=links.map(a=>document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href'))).filter(Boolean); links.forEach(a=>a.addEventListener('click',e=>{e.preventDefault();document.querySelector(a.getAttribute('href')).scrollIntoView({behavior:'smooth'});})); if('IntersectionObserver' in window && secs.length){ const obs=new IntersectionObserver(es=>{es.forEach(e=>{if(e.isIntersecting) links.forEach(l=>l.classList.toggle('on',l.getAttribute('href')==='#'+e.target.id));});},{rootMargin:'-15% 0px -75% 0px'}); secs.forEach(s=>obs.observe(s)); } })(); // ---- sortable roster table ---- const SVC_RANK={'pre-arb':0,'arb':1,'FA-elig':2,'?':3}; function cellNum(td){const n=parseFloat(td.textContent.replace(/[^0-9.\-]/g,''));return isNaN(n)?null:n;} function scale(v,mn,mx,g){ if(g==='diverge'){ if(v>=0){const t=mx>0?v/mx:0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mn<0?v/mn:0;return `rgba(192,73,43,${(0.10+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } if(g==='salmag'){const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(128,135,143,${(0.05+0.45*t).toFixed(2)})`;} const t=mx>mn?(v-mn)/(mx-mn):0;return `rgba(26,125,90,${(0.05+0.55*t).toFixed(2)})`; } function applyGradients(table){ [...table.tHead.rows[0].cells].forEach((th,ci)=>{ if(!th.dataset.grad) return; const rows=[...table.tBodies[0].rows], vals=rows.map(r=>cellNum(r.cells[ci])).filter(v=>v!==null); if(!vals.length) return; const mn=Math.min(...vals),mx=Math.max(...vals); rows.forEach(r=>{const v=cellNum(r.cells[ci]);if(v!==null)r.cells[ci].style.background=scale(v,mn,mx,th.dataset.grad);}); }); } function makeSortable(table){ const ths=[...table.tHead.rows[0].cells]; ths.forEach((th,ci)=>{ th.dataset.label=th.textContent.trim(); th.addEventListener('click',()=>{ th._dir=(th._dir===-1)?1:-1; const dir=th._dir, tb=table.tBodies[0], svc=th.dataset.sortType==='service'; [...tb.rows].sort((a,b)=>{ let va,vb; if(svc){va=SVC_RANK[a.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;vb=SVC_RANK[b.cells[ci].textContent.trim()]??9;} else{va=cellNum(a.cells[ci]);vb=cellNum(b.cells[ci]); if(va===null||vb===null){va=a.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();vb=b.cells[ci].textContent.trim().toLowerCase();}} return vavb?dir:0; }).forEach(r=>tb.appendChild(r)); ths.forEach(h=>h.innerHTML=h.dataset.label); th.innerHTML=th.dataset.label+' '+(dir===1?'▲':'▼')+''; }); }); } document.querySelectorAll('table.sortable').forEach(t=>{applyGradients(t);makeSortable(t);});